Italian Prime Minister Meloni’s strategic outlook for North Africa and, specifically Tunisia, has received partial backing from the Commission, as she visited Europe’s southern neighbour together with Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Dutch PM Mark Rutte.
Tunisia may receive over €1 billion from the EU to bolster its economy in a “macro-financial assistance” package. The North African country has struggled with a stagnant economy since its 2011 Arab Spring political transition.
A portion of the EU’s assistance would also go towards helping the country implement the IMF’s recommended reforms. These recommendations concern restructuring state-owned firms. Tunisian President Kais Saied has reacted to the IMF’s plans with some hostility, however.
For her part, Meloni has reportedly attempted to get the IMF to soften its position. Her government’s geopolitical policy involves buying energy from North African countries in return for having them take an active role in blocking migration flows northward, increasing Italian strategic protagonism as a key transit country for energy into Europe, especially as the war in Ukraine leads the EU to diversify away from Russian sources.
Ultimately, this is part of Italy’s larger Mattei Plan, which seeks to develop energy and transportation infrastructure in Africa, promote employment on that continent, and reduce the long-term desirability of Europe-bound migration. Getting the Commission to endorse her project for a new Mediterranean security, energy, and migration architecture is a significant boon for Meloni.
Despite ideological differences, it now seems the Commission is willing to go along with Meloni’s plan, in part because the situation is urgent. Frontex, an EU agency, has reported a massive increase in irregular crossings departing from Tunisia in 2023 compared to 2022. This has led to an increase in deaths because of the dangers involved.
These flows have generated instability in Tunisia, with President Saied going so far as to warn of a demographic change in the country threatening its character as an “Arab and Islamic” nation.
Whatever desire Ursula von der Leyen may have to maintain migration flows for the sake of economic growth, the sheer unpredictability of such a sharp increase in illegal crossings is likely to lead to a policy recalibration.
If Europe is to do more than buy off transit countries that host migration routes, and if the promise of the Mattei Plan to produce prosperity in the country of origin—thereby reducing migration pressure in the long term—is to be fulfilled, such initiatives cannot limit themselves to countries with a Mediterranean coast, like Tunisia, but must extend south.
