Security concerns and solidarity dilemmas dominated the first day of the EU Council Summit on Thursday, June 29th, as leaders of the bloc gathered in Brussels to discuss the most pressing issues in Europe, including the Migration pact, unexpected budget hikes, and what to make out of the situation in Russia in wake of Wagner’s short-lived mutiny.
The two-day Summit will conclude on Friday with concrete decisions in all relevant policy areas, until then here’s where member states stand on each of the main issues.
Wagner: Something’s fishy in Belarus
EU leaders seem just as puzzled by Wagner PMC’s coup attempt as the rest of us, with reactions varying from celebration of Russia’s imminent collapse to worrying that something terrible might be afoot under the disguise of the apparent chaos in Moscow.
“The mutiny we saw at the weekend demonstrates that there are cracks and divisions within the Russian system—at the same time, it is important to underline that these are internal Russian matters, and it’s too early to draw any final conclusions,” NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said after arriving to the summit, also calling for readiness, “because it’s not clear yet how many of the Wagner forces will end up in Belarus or other places.”
Lithuania seems to be the most concerned about the looming threat Wagner’s presence in Belarus represents, with President Gitanas Nauseda saying that the “serial killers” of Wagner might “emerge in Belarus at any moment.”
The sentiment was echoed by Latvian Prime Minister Krišjānis Kariņš as well, who said his country was keeping a “wary eye” on Belarus. Wagner’s Yevgeniy Prigozhin will likely be joined by “an unknown number of very trained and skilled fighters,” the PM said, which “does potentially pose a threat.”
According to Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo, what happened clearly weakened Putin’s regime, but whatever the consequences will be, Finland has “taken care of” securing the 1,300 km Russian border up north. Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas expressed a similar opinion, saying that a wounded bear is still “unstable, unpredictable, and dangerous.”
For one, Germany’s Olaf Scholz took a rather realistic stance, saying that even though the mutiny revealed Moscow’s inherent weakness, it doesn’t mean that Russia will collapse anytime soon or that it will have to pull out from Ukraine. Instead, the episode simply shows that “it’s irresponsible to place military force in private hands.”
Chancellor Scholz also stressed that the EU was not involved in the coup attempt in any way. “This is a problem that Putin has brought on himself. We can only observe that,” he said, adding that the EU’s “goal here is not a change of government in Russia. Our goal, which we are pursuing, is an independent Ukraine.”
Migration: “Converging views”
With the new Migration and Asylum Pact already approved at a lesser Council meeting last month, leaders are only expected to officially finalize the package—which is deemed too tough by some, and not nearly enough by others—but there’s not much to change on it anymore.
Not that some wouldn’t want to, since the problem is that it was adopted by the consent of a qualified majority (only 20 member states out of 27), which led Poland and Hungary to declare that the migrant redistribution scheme—romantically called a ‘compulsory solidarity’ mechanism—is being forced on them and that they won’t comply even if eventually adopted.
Just as expected, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki announced ahead of the Summit that Poland will veto the forced relocation mechanism:
As a prime minister, I will not agree to violate our rights and our sovereignty. The so-called Migration Pact is not a pact. This is a request for surrender from the Member States and we do not agree. Each country has the right to be a host at home. The same principle applies to our entire continent. Europe has the holy right to be at home and it is high time that all of Europe realized this.
For her part, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen believes the Pact will provide much-needed protection at the external borders and will make it possible to fight human smugglers properly. “Investment in [the] economic stability of countries of origin” is equally important.
Although not a big fan of the Migration Pact initially, Sweden’s center-right Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson endorsed the package after arriving at the Summit, saying that the old status quo wasn’t working but the new law will prevent illegal migrants moving around Europe uncontested. Kristersson’s coalition partners, the Sweden Democrats, are more skeptical about the effectiveness of the Pact regarding secondary movements, but according to the PM, they are increasingly “of converging views.”
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz believes that the situation at the EU’s external borders will be greatly improved by the Migration Pact, even though other EU members are less convinced. To reassure them, Scholz also promised decisive future “migration partnerships” with origin and transit countries to curb the numbers. On the other hand, the chancellor pushed for an increase in “regular” legal migration to solve labor shortages.
Italian Prime Minister Georgia Meloni also talked about externalizing the migration problem, vouching for strategic partnerships with all North African countries—such as the recent agreement with Tunisia—that will reduce illegal migration and will also have economic benefits. According to Meloni, the €15 billion the Commission asked for as an extra budget to manage migration is just a “good starting out point.”
Regarding the Migration Pact, Meloni was thrilled that the package is now nearing the finish line. That’s not surprising, given that Italy is a frontline country, meaning a main beneficiary of the solidarity mechanism. Still, it sounded a bit naïve for her to say at the Summit that the agreement is “a unique approach that fixed everyone’s problem.” Warsaw and Budapest beg to differ.
Budget: Where’s the money?
Another big topic of discussion was the Commission’s proposed €65 billion budget hike meant to fill in the unforeseen gaps in Brussels’ multiannual financial framework. Two items on the Commission’s shipping list raised a couple of eyebrows particularly: €17 billion in direct aid (complemented by €33 billion in loans) to Ukraine, and another €19 billion only to cover the rising interest rates of the EU’s joint public debt.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán was among the first to express dissatisfaction over the proposal and even chose a creative outlet to announce his position at the Summit by tweeting everyone’s favorite Pulp Fiction meme to ask the Commission what happened to existing funds, especially given that we’re not even halfway through the current budgetary period.
Just as the debate started, the Hungarian prime minister also posted a video, saying that “everyone here in Brussels is asking one question: where is the money? … How did the European Union come to the brink of bankruptcy?” Orbán also noted that it seems hypocritical to ask for billions to pay for the interests on the very loans “from which Poland and Hungary have not seen a single cent so far.”
“Frivolous, to say the least,” he added.
