Next year’s elections might provide a historical opportunity to correct the leftist imbalance of the European Parliament, but the conservative revival of Europe depends on voters realizing that their voice matters. This was the conclusion of an insightful panel discussion at Tusványos, a conservative political gathering in Transylvania on Wednesday, July 19th.
The panel, organized by the conservative think-tank MCC, included Rodrigo Ballester, the head of the Center for European Studies at MCC and a former EU Commission official; Mick Hume, a senior writer for The European Conservative; and Thomas Fazi, a journalist at Unherd.
With less than a year until the next European elections, the panelists discussed whether a populist revolution is really possible, what effects it would have in Brussels, and how we could all make it happen.
‘Real’ conservatives vs traitors to the Right
One of the root problems is that relatively few people are truly familiar with the internal structure of the European Parliament, and even fewer know about where the Left-Right divide is actually situated in most issues.
Presently, the four leftist parties in Parliament have 355 combined seats, while the three right-wing groups have 305 between them. In practice, however, things are not as balanced as one would assume. In 88% of the cases, as Ballester noted, the center-right EPP votes together with the socialists, liberals, greens, and far-left. So, if we add the EPP seats to the leftist tally, the conservatives are suddenly outnumbered 531 to 128.
“So, the real question is how many conservative voters can understand this and vote for ‘real’ conservative parties instead,” said Ballester. “The EPP is the party of traitors, they don’t do what their voters want them to do,” he said, adding that unless people vote for ECR or ID-affiliated parties, “conservative votes are lost in translation.”
Polls suggest that both of the lesser right-wing groups will grow considerably after the election, but it’d be naive to assume they could reach majority on their own. Nonetheless, they could become strong enough to compel the EPP to enter into a right-wing coalition with them, forcing the center-right MEPs to finally consider representing their voters.
For some reason, many parties within the ECR and ID groups are still considered ‘extreme’ in mainstream circles, even though, as Hume believes, it becomes increasingly evident that only the two conservative groups represent true democracy in Brussels.
“Populism has become a dirty word. In the Brussels establishment language, it’s associated with some kind of racist movement,” he said. “But to me, it represents a popular democratic backlash against technocratic bureaucracy.”
According to Fazi, however, not even ECR and ID can be considered true populists because most of the parties within are “radically pro-NATO” and support the indefinite financing of the war in Ukraine. “The European economy is heading toward de-industrialization as a fallout of the war and a result of following the U.S.’ sanctions policies,” Fazi said, pointing out that at the same time, the European ideal of strategic autonomy disappeared overnight.
Never has Europe been more subordinate to Washington than it is now. America is using the war to reestablish its control through NATO and the populist right embraces it. How can you be a sovereigntist and a nationalist if you support another state gaining control over yours?
Fighting Brussels’ ‘deep state’
The historically low turnout of EU elections is also because many people don’t believe that the European Parliament matters. After all, it’s the unelected Commission (which Ballester referred to as the European “deep state” with its 32,000 civil servants but “literally zero political diversity”) that’s the main engine of the legislative process.
Well, this assessment is not exactly true. “The EP is no longer a ‘Mickey Mouse’ parliament. It’s becoming increasingly influential, and it co-legislates everything,” Ballester reminded the audience. Therefore, it is important to go out and vote to change what we can, while maintaining realistic expectations, because the Commission cannot be so easily reformed. “Even if the EP gets balanced for the first time ever, Brussels is a big vessel, it takes time to steer it against its inertia,” he said.
Hume agreed but remained optimistic.
The EU is an antidemocratic institution with a Parliament that’s just window dressing to give the impression of democracy. But even though, we need to fight our battles today, do whatever we can for a change.
Fazi took a more pessimistic position, saying that it’s easy to be critical from the outside, but just like the Eurosceptic Left, the populist Right will probably do very little to reform the system, even if given the power to do so.
Addressing Fazi’s cynicism, Hume said it doesn’t matter if the conservatives disappoint, because the populist vote will continue to move on. The demand for change is only getting stronger, and the energy won’t disappear. We need to give them a chance first, then carry the momentum further.
According to Ballester, the EU can be fixed, in time, but any reform needs to start by limiting the power of the Commission. “Do you trust the European Commission to run a sovereign Europe? I don’t,” he said. “If you want a strong Europe, make it bigger (by enlarging in the West Balkans, for example), but with less central competence and more subsidiarity.” Europe shouldn’t be a family where every decision has to be taken together, he gave as an analogy, but we should think of ourselves as a strong neighborhood that agrees on strategic issues and leaves the rest to be decided independently.
While getting rid of the ‘deep state’ is not going to happen overnight, the panel agreed that 2024 can be the year when positive change finally begins. Provided, of course, that European conservatives do vote and cast their ballots to actual conservative parties.
