Immigration is taking centre stage in Poland as the country enters the final week before crunch elections on Sunday, October 15th. This is thanks to the unfolding migrant crisis in the Mediterranean, the Ukrainian war, a referendum on EU asylum policies, as well as the prospect of more weaponised migration from Belarus.
Most signs point to a subdued victory for Warsaw’s ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party despite vociferous pressure from the EU-backed opposition led by ex-European Council President Donald Tusk and anti-NATO upstarts Konfederacja. The latter party has gained support, particularly among younger voters. Meanwhile, PiS is dealing with accusations of grift following a cash-for-visa scandal.
In all likelihood, Poland’s next government will be formed in the frantic post-election coalition building after the October vote. The result could see PiS embracing the populist Konfederacja to maintain power, or, alternatively, a liberal-left Europhile government could take over.
Regardless, supporters of Warsaw’s largest football club Legia, which is traditionally associated with the military, made their voices heard by unfurling a giant banner with the words “We don’t want Berlin, Lampedusa, or France here – zero tolerance for migrants” at its home stadium Sunday.
Meanwhile, Poland’s liberal opposition has been trying to court conservatives by challenging the government on immigration, even going so far as to reference recent French riots as a potential future consequence of PiS’s migration policies.
Poland is presently undergoing a population boom driven by an influx of 1.5 million Ukrainian refugees and an uptick in non-EU migration. PiS has already been forced to shelve a previous policy of liberalising the visa process for the Global South due to intense political pressure from both the left and the right.
Poland has experienced small but noticeable anti-Ukranian protests in the run-up to the election. This comes as Warsaw’s earlier enthusiasm for Kyiv wanes in the face of an agricultural dispute over Ukrainian grain and the decision by PiS to stop the flow of Polish armaments to the Ukrainian front.
At the meeting of the European Political Community in Spain last week Poland, in conjunction with Hungary, scuppered any mention of immigration as leaders convened to discuss regional crises in Armenia and the Balkans.
On the domestic front, PiS has been emphasising anti-immigration sentiment, even as they face criticism from the right-wing populists Konfederacja, who accuse them of being soft on the issue. PiS has been actively promoting videos of Polish politicians visiting the island of Lampedusa to bolster their stance.
