Sunday’s Polish election could yet throw up another surprise, with rumours circulating that the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party may offer a small agrarian party, currently part of the anti-PiS opposition, the office of prime minister and half the cabinet positions in order to form a coalition government.
Much to the delight of the European Commission, PiS lost its overall majority in the 460-person Polish Parliament (Sejm) on Sunday. A multifaceted coalition of centrists, leftists, and Christian Democrats led by former European Council President Donald Tusk looks set to form the next Polish government.
Now PiS is reportedly trying to poke holes in this prospective rainbow coalition. Party top brass are understood to be offering major incentives to one agrarian populist party, Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (PSL), to join them in government. They may even back PSL leader Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz for the Polish presidency in 2025.
PSL is a long-established centre-right party that draws most of its support from rural conservative voters. The party is currently part of the electoral alliance the Third Way (Trzecia Droga), which surprised observers with a last-minute electoral surge, gaining 65 parliamentary seats.
PSL is the second largest party in the Third Way alliance with 28 seats. This would strengthen PiS’s chances of attaining a majority in the Sejm if they can form an alliance with the nationalist Konfederacja party, which has 18 seats.
While PSL leadership have ruled out their potential interest, PiS representatives have taken to social media to hint at their optimism that a deal could be reached. One senior PiS MEP, Dominik Tarczyński, mysteriously tweeted the words “everything will be fine,” supposedly in reference to a potential deal with PSL.
Sources close to PiS have also told The European Conservative that a deal was more likely than it might appear. Party officials are even understood to have issued orders for activists to remain calm during any potential negotiations.
However, many commentators have ridiculed the idea of a deal between PiS and PSL as merely a ploy for the ruling party to buy time before it cedes power.
Any anti-PiS coalition is likely to run against the grain of PiS-aligned Polish President Andrzej Duda, who is likely to veto legislation until he leaves office in 2025.
Regardless, Poland is facing weeks, if not months, of multi-party talks to form a coalition government as the European Commission looks to potentially unblock billions in funding currently tied up in a dispute with PiS over the Polish judiciary.
