What has got into the European Union lately? The recurrent signs of febrility in Brussels are nothing short of puzzling. After Charles Michel abandoned his bid to become an MEP in order to avoid Orbán chairing a few meetings on his own, the Financial Times publication of the EU’s plan to sink Hungary evidences that Brussels has seriously frayed nerves.
At first sight, one is astonished at the level of hostility. With the exception of Russia after its invasion of Ukraine, when has the EU been ready to sabotage a country’s economy by sparking a storm in the financial markets? Did it envisage those measures against Iran, Cuba, or the Palestinian Authority? Did it ever dare leverage European funds to enforce the forced returns of illegal migrants? No, but financial warfare against one of its own member states—and, by the same token, millions of European citizens—suddenly becomes the natural way of punishing a government for using a perfectly legal mechanism called unanimity.
Yet, upon reflection, one is perplexed by the clumsiness of this plan, that could so easily backfire. Apart from the amateurish theatricality of this obviously orchestrated manoeuvre (a technocratic version of the Godfather’s dead horse head), the most Eurosceptic spin doctor would have never dreamed of such a faux pas five months ahead of the European elections. While thousands of farmers demonstrate and anger against elites soars across the continent, is it really the best moment for the EU to come out as a blackmailer?
Moreover, does the EU really possess the power to sink Hungary’s economy, as it claims? As a matter of fact, Hungary did not receive any EU funding until a couple of weeks ago. Moreover, two-thirds of the intended funds still remain frozen without Hungary’s economy showing signs of collapse. None of this prevented Hungary from drawing in a groundbreaking €13 billion of foreign investments in 2023. So, where is the red button that Brussels is so eager to push? If Hungary were part of the Eurozone, then an improvised troika of some kind could put Budapest on the ropes. But, because Hungary maintains its own currency, the Eurocrats can only threaten to spike the financial markets without explaining how they would avoid shooting themselves in the foot in the process.
Yet, the most valuable takeaway from this clumsy leak is the ultimate evidence that the rule of law is dead—if, indeed, it ever existed as a fair, non-political instrument. Ever since Poland and Hungary were deprived of their funds in 2021, critics have pointed at both the legal inconsistencies and arbitrariness of procedures built on vague legal concepts and the Commission’s absolute discretion to apply them under the constant barking of the European Parliament. The exclusion of Hungarian universities from Erasmus and Horizon on the basis of purely imaginary infractions suggested there was little hope both for the lawfulness of the proceedings and for the EU’s good faith.
Of course, it was always clear that prohibiting gender ideology among minors and instituting national asylum legislation were both good enough grounds for the EU to confiscate funds, even if some naïve minds insisted on the protection afforded by the rule of law. Thanks to the leak (and we shall be grateful for it), we can all read, in black and white, that the financial situation is not about the rule of law at all; it is about Ukraine, for now, and might be about anything else in the future. And if the EU does not have a legal basis to freeze funds for political reasons, it just does it anyway. You can call it blackmail if you like, for all the good it does you.
So, who’s blackmailing whom? For months, Viktor Orbán has been portrayed as a master blackmailer wielding the unanimity rule, while the EU played the role of a helpless victim. Behind the scenes, it was quite the other way around: Brussels imposed draconian conditions (the famous 27 milestones) on Budapest, and when Hungary played the game and implemented reforms that went far beyond what the EU is entitled to request, the Commission, acting in accordance with the hysterical outcry of the European Parliament, continued to withhold the funds. Without Orbán’s veto in December 2023, Hungary would not have even received the €10 billion it got. And still, for that quite ordinary compromise in which Budapest stuck to the rules, the EU Parliament plans to sue the Commission for giving one-third of its due to Orbán. I doubt that there could be a better example of political blackmail.
The stalemate around Ukraine has been a major political disagreement, and Budapest’s potential veto has been an irritant to the other members of the EU. For decades, the EU resolved countless vetoes, even with regard to Treaty reforms, through negotiations and compromises. But now, on the eve of crucial European elections, it has lost its temper and seems ready to forgo talks in favour of base extortion. This blunt display of authoritarianism is tantamount, politically speaking, to harakiri.
Why this febrility? First, because after years of tensions, a significant portion of the European elites has entered into a personal crusade against Orbán; they want his head. Second, because Brussels is afraid of political diversity; in its own jargon, it is ‘diversophobic,’ and it does not tolerate divergent views about Europe’s path and shape. Third, and most importantly, because the European elections are around the corner and a wave of discontent is inexorably growing against Brussels’ globalist policies. They are frightened.
Carried on the shoulders of the farmers’ protest, the EU’s top-down consensus is being seriously questioned, and the ballots might lead to a radical shift in the EU’s direction. Hence the nervousness, hence the misstep of trying to blackmail Hungary, hence the desire to make an example of Budapest for its opposition. The thinking is that, by cancelling one government, they can also cancel the will of hundreds of millions of European voters. Ask yourself: Who’s blackmailing whom? Can the EU keep calm? Will it let Europe vote?
Hungary and the EU: Who’s Blackmailing Whom?
What has got into the European Union lately? The recurrent signs of febrility in Brussels are nothing short of puzzling. After Charles Michel abandoned his bid to become an MEP in order to avoid Orbán chairing a few meetings on his own, the Financial Times publication of the EU’s plan to sink Hungary evidences that Brussels has seriously frayed nerves.
At first sight, one is astonished at the level of hostility. With the exception of Russia after its invasion of Ukraine, when has the EU been ready to sabotage a country’s economy by sparking a storm in the financial markets? Did it envisage those measures against Iran, Cuba, or the Palestinian Authority? Did it ever dare leverage European funds to enforce the forced returns of illegal migrants? No, but financial warfare against one of its own member states—and, by the same token, millions of European citizens—suddenly becomes the natural way of punishing a government for using a perfectly legal mechanism called unanimity.
Yet, upon reflection, one is perplexed by the clumsiness of this plan, that could so easily backfire. Apart from the amateurish theatricality of this obviously orchestrated manoeuvre (a technocratic version of the Godfather’s dead horse head), the most Eurosceptic spin doctor would have never dreamed of such a faux pas five months ahead of the European elections. While thousands of farmers demonstrate and anger against elites soars across the continent, is it really the best moment for the EU to come out as a blackmailer?
Moreover, does the EU really possess the power to sink Hungary’s economy, as it claims? As a matter of fact, Hungary did not receive any EU funding until a couple of weeks ago. Moreover, two-thirds of the intended funds still remain frozen without Hungary’s economy showing signs of collapse. None of this prevented Hungary from drawing in a groundbreaking €13 billion of foreign investments in 2023. So, where is the red button that Brussels is so eager to push? If Hungary were part of the Eurozone, then an improvised troika of some kind could put Budapest on the ropes. But, because Hungary maintains its own currency, the Eurocrats can only threaten to spike the financial markets without explaining how they would avoid shooting themselves in the foot in the process.
Yet, the most valuable takeaway from this clumsy leak is the ultimate evidence that the rule of law is dead—if, indeed, it ever existed as a fair, non-political instrument. Ever since Poland and Hungary were deprived of their funds in 2021, critics have pointed at both the legal inconsistencies and arbitrariness of procedures built on vague legal concepts and the Commission’s absolute discretion to apply them under the constant barking of the European Parliament. The exclusion of Hungarian universities from Erasmus and Horizon on the basis of purely imaginary infractions suggested there was little hope both for the lawfulness of the proceedings and for the EU’s good faith.
Of course, it was always clear that prohibiting gender ideology among minors and instituting national asylum legislation were both good enough grounds for the EU to confiscate funds, even if some naïve minds insisted on the protection afforded by the rule of law. Thanks to the leak (and we shall be grateful for it), we can all read, in black and white, that the financial situation is not about the rule of law at all; it is about Ukraine, for now, and might be about anything else in the future. And if the EU does not have a legal basis to freeze funds for political reasons, it just does it anyway. You can call it blackmail if you like, for all the good it does you.
So, who’s blackmailing whom? For months, Viktor Orbán has been portrayed as a master blackmailer wielding the unanimity rule, while the EU played the role of a helpless victim. Behind the scenes, it was quite the other way around: Brussels imposed draconian conditions (the famous 27 milestones) on Budapest, and when Hungary played the game and implemented reforms that went far beyond what the EU is entitled to request, the Commission, acting in accordance with the hysterical outcry of the European Parliament, continued to withhold the funds. Without Orbán’s veto in December 2023, Hungary would not have even received the €10 billion it got. And still, for that quite ordinary compromise in which Budapest stuck to the rules, the EU Parliament plans to sue the Commission for giving one-third of its due to Orbán. I doubt that there could be a better example of political blackmail.
The stalemate around Ukraine has been a major political disagreement, and Budapest’s potential veto has been an irritant to the other members of the EU. For decades, the EU resolved countless vetoes, even with regard to Treaty reforms, through negotiations and compromises. But now, on the eve of crucial European elections, it has lost its temper and seems ready to forgo talks in favour of base extortion. This blunt display of authoritarianism is tantamount, politically speaking, to harakiri.
Why this febrility? First, because after years of tensions, a significant portion of the European elites has entered into a personal crusade against Orbán; they want his head. Second, because Brussels is afraid of political diversity; in its own jargon, it is ‘diversophobic,’ and it does not tolerate divergent views about Europe’s path and shape. Third, and most importantly, because the European elections are around the corner and a wave of discontent is inexorably growing against Brussels’ globalist policies. They are frightened.
Carried on the shoulders of the farmers’ protest, the EU’s top-down consensus is being seriously questioned, and the ballots might lead to a radical shift in the EU’s direction. Hence the nervousness, hence the misstep of trying to blackmail Hungary, hence the desire to make an example of Budapest for its opposition. The thinking is that, by cancelling one government, they can also cancel the will of hundreds of millions of European voters. Ask yourself: Who’s blackmailing whom? Can the EU keep calm? Will it let Europe vote?
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