When the Republic of Ireland goes to the polls on Friday for both European and local elections, it is seen as the first real litmus test of right-wing populism since the emergence of anti-immigration protests over the past 18 months.
Sinn Féin’s traditional influence in working-class communities appears to be slipping, causing the party to pivot to using migration control rhetoric. And Dublin’s political establishment has yet to come to terms with the unprecedented public mood swing on migration, with the thorny issue plaguing the country’s left-wing Sinn Féin opposition party.
While predictably, tribal legacy media have sounded the alarm about the mainstreaming of anti-migration politics, the Republic has—until now—been without a mainline right-wing populist party. Instead, pundits predict that non-aligned independents will profit from the issue coming to the fore.
A series of heinous migrant-related crimes, a dysfunctional asylum system that contributed to the emergence of tent cities in the heart of Dublin—broadly coinciding with the arrival of over 100,000 Ukrainians amid an endemic housing crisis—have all fueled a groundswell of public discontent, culminating in mass protests and even arson attacks on refugee centres.
“You will never solve the housing problem until you stop increasing the demand,” explained one populist candidate for Dublin, Malachy Steenson.
Polling suggests a cumulative 15-20% of voters opting for right-wing independents or smaller parties on the right.
While the europhile Fine Gael party of newly installed PM Simon Harris is expected to top the polls, the spike in concern over the migration issue has dented support for Sinn Féin. Some polls suggest a third of its potential voters could switch to populist and independent candidates.
Similarly, Dublin’s other major centrist ruling party, Fianna Fáil, which rural voters usually support, is experiencing troubles over the migration question. An internal power struggle against an overly progressive leadership is threatening the party’s long-term existence.
Among the main likely beneficiaries of this week’s expected populist shift are Aontú, a party formed from pro-life elements of Sinn Féin, and Independent Ireland, a populist alliance with three sitting TDs (MPs). The latter party, led by popular conservative radio presenter Niall Boylan, could win two of the Republic’s fourteen seats.
Perhaps the biggest casualties of the rise of right-wing populism in Ireland could be the anti-NATO Left. MEPs Clare Daly and Mike Wallace, known for their criticism of Western foreign policy are fighting for their political lives thanks to competition from newer far-left candidates.
Results for both local and European elections should be known on late Sunday afternoon. Ireland’s regionalized proportional transferable voting system, where voters list their candidates in order of preference, could potentially throw additional surprises into the electoral process.
Ireland already saw a populist revolt earlier this year when the country overwhelmingly rejected an attempt to amend the constitution to redefine what constitutes a family under Irish law. Anti-immigration riots in Dublin in November also demonstrated the explosive nature of the migration issue.
