After Joe Biden’s abysmal performance at the debate with Donald Trump on June 27th, a multitude of Democratic Party voices have demanded that the president give up his re-election bid and make way for another candidate in November’s election.
This is easier said than done. To start with, Biden and his family seem to be determined that he should stay in the race. So long as he wants to do that, it is going to take a monumental effort of Democrat-party political machinations to defy his will. That includes finding another candidate, selling that candidate to the delegates at the Democratic convention in August, and then marketing that candidate to the voters.
Nobody should underestimate the Democratic Party machine, which is probably the most well-greased, best-funded, and—when needed—the most steamrolling political apparatus in the free world. I would not put it beyond them to replace Biden, even against his own will, and to even manage to win in November.
With that said, this imposing political battleship of a party has never faced a situation like this one—and they only have a few short weeks to figure out what to do, get it done, and avoid stepping on the countless legal landmines that the switch-out-Biden operation is littered with.
Generally speaking, the Democrats now have to operate on two different political and jurisdictional tracks, both of which are going to be significant challenges even for experienced political lawyers. All the legal experts who are now scrambling to move forward are facing first-timers—situations where their experience is of little or no use—which means a dangerous learn-as-you-go situation.
The danger is not only breaking laws and regulations per se, which can invalidate the entire switch-out-Biden process; it is also the many watchful eyes that Republicans and their affiliate organizations are going to have posted along the way. If they see the Democrats commit the slightest infraction, or stretch the tiniest law a little bit too far, they are going to subject the Democrats to rapid-fire lawsuits.
Again, I would not be the slightest surprised if the Democrats come out of their convention in August with a new candidate, ready to hit the campaign trail running. There are six weeks to the convention, and six weeks is a long time in American politics, especially when you have resources in the hundreds of millions of dollars to spend on legal expertise, political wheel-greasing, tactical persuasion, and good old strong-arming of anyone recalcitrant enough to stand in the way of a ‘new’ candidate.
To get there, though, they will have to tackle the problem of determining what that ‘new’ candidate looks like. The rumor mill is working overtime, but two candidates have stuck out more than others. The first of them is Gavin Newsom, the hopelessly far-left Governor of California. It has been well known in political circles that Newsom has been wanting to be president since he was mayor of San Francisco.
He is maritally related to the political machine of former House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi. This gives Newsom a lot of ‘free’ influence and a formidable fundraising advantage. However, none of that will matter when voters take a closer look at the legacy of his gubernatorial tenure. Thanks in good part to his ‘leadership,’ California is a mess of crime, energy shortages, failing schools, and outbound migration of both people and corporations.
The state government is one of the most indebted in the country. Newsom has pushed taxes so high that paying taxes has become the prime purpose of making money for most middle-to-upper income families.
Under Newsom’s tenure, crime has spun badly out of control. Part of the reason is his signature on a law that says shoplifters can steal up to $950 worth of merchandise without any meaningful penalty. As a result of this and other forms of crime spinning out of control, of taxes breaking the backs of families and businesses, and of some of America’s most onerous business regulations, California has now made a name for itself as the exodus state.
This is not only the picture of California that its outbound residents see in the rearview mirror; it is also the picture of Gavin Newsom’s leadership that the Republicans will paint all over the country, should he officially announce his presidential bid.
In short, he is not the man to save the Democrats in this summer of disarray.
Another sitting governor is making her White House ambitions known: Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan. Her record is different, but no less problematic, than Newsom’s. Among her most notorious accomplishments are the infamous restrictions that she imposed on her state during COVID. In hindsight, even Governor Whitmer herself has conceded that those restrictions were pointless and made little sense.
At the time, Governor Whitmer fought so hard for her regulations that it took an act of the Michigan Supreme Court to end her executive-orders-driven tyranny. Her usurpation of power at the time makes her a convenient target in a presidential race, where the Republicans could play hard-hitting ads all day long of Whitmer boasting pandemic regulations that she regrets when she wants to be president.
Other names are floating around, including former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. She is only a year or so younger than Biden, with virtually no connection to younger voters. She also lost to Trump eight years ago.
Beyond her, few if any potential candidates have the name recognition within the Democrat party that Newsom and Whitmer do. One reason for this is that the party is unusually tightly top-down run political operation. Since Bill Clinton was in his first term as president, it has been a tradition within the Democratic Party that the president and his close confidants weed out as much opposition to the president as they can, at least in terms of presidential primary challengers.
For this reason, the field of candidates in the Democratic primaries this past winter and spring was almost completely void of challengers to President Biden. The party was even able to chase Robert F. Kennedy Jr. out of their primaries, which means that they are now getting ready for a party convention in early August with, technically, only one candidate to consider: Joe Biden.
With that said, the party is still increasingly uneasy with the picture of the sitting president going into the election against a vigorous, confident, and very well-funded Donald Trump. Assuming they find a candidate that can replace Biden for the final stretch into November, their actual path to making the replacement happen is far from straightforward.
As mentioned, they would have to work on two parallel political tracks. One of them runs through the state rules for what candidates can go on the ballots for the election, and one that gets bogged down in the rules for how the party convention can pick a candidate.
Sound complicated? That is because it is. Even legal scholars who spend their careers on these issues will admit that it is complicated. There is almost no precedent to draw on; the closest we get in recent history is when Lyndon Johnson in the lead-up to the 1968 election decided that he was not the man for the presidency. The party scrambled, replaced him with Hubert Humphrey, Johnson’s vice president, but ended up losing to Richard Nixon.
Back then, the presidential candidates for each of the two big parties were not chosen according to the heavily voter-influenced process at work today. The closer ties between a candidate and primary voters make it difficult for the delegates from each primary, and each state, to suddenly jump ship and vote for another candidate at the party convention.
Since Joe Biden won upward of 95% of the delegates in the primaries and caucuses, the default outcome of the convention is that Joe Biden is confirmed as their candidate for president. If the Democrats want another outcome, their chance of a convention replacing Biden hinges on two things: Biden’s own willingness to run, and the formal commitment of his delegates.
Here is where it gets really interesting—and very ‘American’ if you will. The delegates are apportioned among the presidential candidates based on the outcomes of either primary elections or state-party caucuses. In other words, the delegates are picked locally, without any influence from the national Democratic Party.
Most people who vote in primaries assume that these delegates have made an unbreakable promise to vote for the candidate who won their state. However, that is not necessarily the case. The Democratic Party’s bylaws give no immediate clarity here, but according to Steven Shepard at Politico, the delegates are “pledged but not committed” to vote for the candidate who ‘won’ them. This would mean that they have a moral duty, but not are not legally obligated, to back Biden. If Shepard is correct, once the convention starts, the delegates could refuse to support Biden and instead cast their votes for someone of their own choosing.
Under normal circumstances, this would be completely unthinkable, especially for delegates who were sent to the convention after state-party caucuses. Those delegates were chosen by the state parties, not the voters, which means direct repercussions for them when they get home. However, since these are not normal circumstances, the unimaginable may end up being unavoidable.
If Biden wants to stay in the race, it is unlikely that enough delegates would vote for another candidate. Biden would have to put on another disaster show like the debate against Trump before we can reasonably expect his delegates to jump ship against Biden’s will. It could happen, though, and if it does, the Democratic Party convention becomes an open one.
If Biden declares that he has changed his mind and does not want to run for a second term, all his delegates are released into an open convention. Those who want to replace Biden are hoping for this outcome, and are probably working behind the scenes to make an open convention happen even against Biden’s will.
They may succeed in opening for another candidate before Biden’s very eyes, but that still does not guarantee that the new candidate can be placed on the ballots in all 50 states. The second track, namely, to get a new candidate into the election runs through a jungle of state rules on how candidates can and cannot be placed on the ballot for an election. Ohio is one example:
Because of a quirk in Ohio law which had required all candidates to be legally certified by Aug. 7—more than a week ahead of Biden’s scheduled nomination at the convention that opens in Chicago on Aug. 19—Democrats are set to formally nominate Biden in a virtual roll call weeks before the convention.
This means that the Democrats have to have their new candidate in place in the first week of August, and to nominate that candidate on their virtual roll call in good time for August 7th.
And just to spice things up further, the deadline could be much tighter in some states.
Regardless of whether one supports Trump or Biden—or someone else—it is going to be a hot political summer here in America.
Biden and the Big Political Mess of 2024
US President Joe Biden speaks at a campaign event in Raleigh, North Carolina, on June 28, 2024.
Photo: Mandel NGAN / AFP
After Joe Biden’s abysmal performance at the debate with Donald Trump on June 27th, a multitude of Democratic Party voices have demanded that the president give up his re-election bid and make way for another candidate in November’s election.
This is easier said than done. To start with, Biden and his family seem to be determined that he should stay in the race. So long as he wants to do that, it is going to take a monumental effort of Democrat-party political machinations to defy his will. That includes finding another candidate, selling that candidate to the delegates at the Democratic convention in August, and then marketing that candidate to the voters.
Nobody should underestimate the Democratic Party machine, which is probably the most well-greased, best-funded, and—when needed—the most steamrolling political apparatus in the free world. I would not put it beyond them to replace Biden, even against his own will, and to even manage to win in November.
With that said, this imposing political battleship of a party has never faced a situation like this one—and they only have a few short weeks to figure out what to do, get it done, and avoid stepping on the countless legal landmines that the switch-out-Biden operation is littered with.
Generally speaking, the Democrats now have to operate on two different political and jurisdictional tracks, both of which are going to be significant challenges even for experienced political lawyers. All the legal experts who are now scrambling to move forward are facing first-timers—situations where their experience is of little or no use—which means a dangerous learn-as-you-go situation.
The danger is not only breaking laws and regulations per se, which can invalidate the entire switch-out-Biden process; it is also the many watchful eyes that Republicans and their affiliate organizations are going to have posted along the way. If they see the Democrats commit the slightest infraction, or stretch the tiniest law a little bit too far, they are going to subject the Democrats to rapid-fire lawsuits.
Again, I would not be the slightest surprised if the Democrats come out of their convention in August with a new candidate, ready to hit the campaign trail running. There are six weeks to the convention, and six weeks is a long time in American politics, especially when you have resources in the hundreds of millions of dollars to spend on legal expertise, political wheel-greasing, tactical persuasion, and good old strong-arming of anyone recalcitrant enough to stand in the way of a ‘new’ candidate.
To get there, though, they will have to tackle the problem of determining what that ‘new’ candidate looks like. The rumor mill is working overtime, but two candidates have stuck out more than others. The first of them is Gavin Newsom, the hopelessly far-left Governor of California. It has been well known in political circles that Newsom has been wanting to be president since he was mayor of San Francisco.
He is maritally related to the political machine of former House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi. This gives Newsom a lot of ‘free’ influence and a formidable fundraising advantage. However, none of that will matter when voters take a closer look at the legacy of his gubernatorial tenure. Thanks in good part to his ‘leadership,’ California is a mess of crime, energy shortages, failing schools, and outbound migration of both people and corporations.
The state government is one of the most indebted in the country. Newsom has pushed taxes so high that paying taxes has become the prime purpose of making money for most middle-to-upper income families.
Under Newsom’s tenure, crime has spun badly out of control. Part of the reason is his signature on a law that says shoplifters can steal up to $950 worth of merchandise without any meaningful penalty. As a result of this and other forms of crime spinning out of control, of taxes breaking the backs of families and businesses, and of some of America’s most onerous business regulations, California has now made a name for itself as the exodus state.
This is not only the picture of California that its outbound residents see in the rearview mirror; it is also the picture of Gavin Newsom’s leadership that the Republicans will paint all over the country, should he officially announce his presidential bid.
In short, he is not the man to save the Democrats in this summer of disarray.
Another sitting governor is making her White House ambitions known: Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan. Her record is different, but no less problematic, than Newsom’s. Among her most notorious accomplishments are the infamous restrictions that she imposed on her state during COVID. In hindsight, even Governor Whitmer herself has conceded that those restrictions were pointless and made little sense.
At the time, Governor Whitmer fought so hard for her regulations that it took an act of the Michigan Supreme Court to end her executive-orders-driven tyranny. Her usurpation of power at the time makes her a convenient target in a presidential race, where the Republicans could play hard-hitting ads all day long of Whitmer boasting pandemic regulations that she regrets when she wants to be president.
Other names are floating around, including former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. She is only a year or so younger than Biden, with virtually no connection to younger voters. She also lost to Trump eight years ago.
Beyond her, few if any potential candidates have the name recognition within the Democrat party that Newsom and Whitmer do. One reason for this is that the party is unusually tightly top-down run political operation. Since Bill Clinton was in his first term as president, it has been a tradition within the Democratic Party that the president and his close confidants weed out as much opposition to the president as they can, at least in terms of presidential primary challengers.
For this reason, the field of candidates in the Democratic primaries this past winter and spring was almost completely void of challengers to President Biden. The party was even able to chase Robert F. Kennedy Jr. out of their primaries, which means that they are now getting ready for a party convention in early August with, technically, only one candidate to consider: Joe Biden.
With that said, the party is still increasingly uneasy with the picture of the sitting president going into the election against a vigorous, confident, and very well-funded Donald Trump. Assuming they find a candidate that can replace Biden for the final stretch into November, their actual path to making the replacement happen is far from straightforward.
As mentioned, they would have to work on two parallel political tracks. One of them runs through the state rules for what candidates can go on the ballots for the election, and one that gets bogged down in the rules for how the party convention can pick a candidate.
Sound complicated? That is because it is. Even legal scholars who spend their careers on these issues will admit that it is complicated. There is almost no precedent to draw on; the closest we get in recent history is when Lyndon Johnson in the lead-up to the 1968 election decided that he was not the man for the presidency. The party scrambled, replaced him with Hubert Humphrey, Johnson’s vice president, but ended up losing to Richard Nixon.
Back then, the presidential candidates for each of the two big parties were not chosen according to the heavily voter-influenced process at work today. The closer ties between a candidate and primary voters make it difficult for the delegates from each primary, and each state, to suddenly jump ship and vote for another candidate at the party convention.
Since Joe Biden won upward of 95% of the delegates in the primaries and caucuses, the default outcome of the convention is that Joe Biden is confirmed as their candidate for president. If the Democrats want another outcome, their chance of a convention replacing Biden hinges on two things: Biden’s own willingness to run, and the formal commitment of his delegates.
Here is where it gets really interesting—and very ‘American’ if you will. The delegates are apportioned among the presidential candidates based on the outcomes of either primary elections or state-party caucuses. In other words, the delegates are picked locally, without any influence from the national Democratic Party.
Most people who vote in primaries assume that these delegates have made an unbreakable promise to vote for the candidate who won their state. However, that is not necessarily the case. The Democratic Party’s bylaws give no immediate clarity here, but according to Steven Shepard at Politico, the delegates are “pledged but not committed” to vote for the candidate who ‘won’ them. This would mean that they have a moral duty, but not are not legally obligated, to back Biden. If Shepard is correct, once the convention starts, the delegates could refuse to support Biden and instead cast their votes for someone of their own choosing.
Under normal circumstances, this would be completely unthinkable, especially for delegates who were sent to the convention after state-party caucuses. Those delegates were chosen by the state parties, not the voters, which means direct repercussions for them when they get home. However, since these are not normal circumstances, the unimaginable may end up being unavoidable.
If Biden wants to stay in the race, it is unlikely that enough delegates would vote for another candidate. Biden would have to put on another disaster show like the debate against Trump before we can reasonably expect his delegates to jump ship against Biden’s will. It could happen, though, and if it does, the Democratic Party convention becomes an open one.
If Biden declares that he has changed his mind and does not want to run for a second term, all his delegates are released into an open convention. Those who want to replace Biden are hoping for this outcome, and are probably working behind the scenes to make an open convention happen even against Biden’s will.
They may succeed in opening for another candidate before Biden’s very eyes, but that still does not guarantee that the new candidate can be placed on the ballots in all 50 states. The second track, namely, to get a new candidate into the election runs through a jungle of state rules on how candidates can and cannot be placed on the ballot for an election. Ohio is one example:
This means that the Democrats have to have their new candidate in place in the first week of August, and to nominate that candidate on their virtual roll call in good time for August 7th.
And just to spice things up further, the deadline could be much tighter in some states.
Regardless of whether one supports Trump or Biden—or someone else—it is going to be a hot political summer here in America.
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