The results of the second round of the French parliamentary elections, which were far removed from all the forecasts made by the opinion polls, took everyone by surprise. Instead of the expected victory of the Rassemblement National (RN) with a group of over 200 MPs, the French National Assembly is set to be the scene of fierce confrontations between three blocs separated by just a few MPs—with no serious majority, even relative, emerging.
Under these conditions, who can possibly claim to become prime minister and govern the country alongside Emmanuel Macron for the next three years that separate the French from the next presidential elections?
The left-wing alliance, renamed the New Popular Front (NFP), boasts that it has won. The reality is a little more complex. It is only a few MPs ahead of the other two blocs.
Above all, it is a long way from dominating in terms of the number of votes. There is something very unfair about the two-round system in force for French legislative elections. The RN obtained more than 10 million votes, or 36%, but only 143 MPs, while the Left obtained 7 million votes, or 25%, but ended up with 180 seats. Everything is being done to give a bonus to those who can bring together voters in a heterogeneous way to defeat their opponents, even in the absence of any ideological coherence. At the same time, on the other side of the Channel, Labour won 2/3 of the seats, with ‘only’ 33% of the vote.
In these conditions, we should not be surprised by the chaos that now reigns in France. No winners, no losers. No clear political direction. One man at the head of the country, Emmanuel Macron, a king without a kingdom, worn out by power, and incapable of convincing anyone to breathe new life into the three long—too long—years that remain before the end of his term.
Shall we despair? Of course not. History is there to give us some perspectives. In France, revolution always comes on the Left, and the rebound only comes after serious chaos. So we have to be patient and watch, teeth clenched, the gesticulations of the smallest minority of this New Popular Front, which would have us believe that it holds the country’s destiny and future in its hands.
For the moment, it’s hard to say who will be the next tenant of the elegant Hôtel de Matignon, where the prime minister’s residence is located. Gabriel Attal, the holder of the title, has formally given his resignation to President Macron. Macron refused it, simply asking him to stay on “to ensure the stability of the country”, according to Le Figaro.
The Left is chomping at the bit, too impatient to make its dangerous and mediocre little revolution. In a joint statement published on Tuesday, July 9th, the four political groupings of the New Popular Front “solemnly” warned Emmanuel Macron against “any attempt to misuse the institutions” by keeping Gabriel Attal in his post. The use of violence—whatever the journalists, who believe that it is one of the characteristics of the ‘far right’ which in France exists only in their sick imagination, claim—is in the genes of these sad socialist, communist, green, and ‘insoumis’ (unsubmissive) henchmen. Raphaël Arnault, a self-proclaimed ‘antifascist’ with three files on the ‘S list’—individuals posing a threat to state security—has entered the Assembly. Adrien Quatennens, a rebel MP convicted of domestic violence, is calling for a march on Matignon. But France can take it easy: it has consciously averted the danger of ‘fascism.’
So who will replace Attal? Nobody agrees, and it’s almost a given that the uncertainty and bickering will continue for some time to come. No one wants to hear about the insoumis, who strut and fret but have made no headway in terms of the number of MPs. Neither the greens nor the communists are strong enough within the coalition to hope to impose themselves.
That leaves the socialists. The French, somewhat amnesiac, have forgotten that Emmanuel Macron first made a name for himself as Minister for the Economy under the socialist François Hollande: it would therefore only be fair if a socialist became prime minister. To ensure that he remains in office, we need to look for a figure who is weak but not too unsympathetic, who will be likely to rally around him, on a case-by-case basis, the votes of the left and centre, and why not, of the centre-right which has refused to form an alliance with the RN. The German-style ‘grand coalition’ is the fantasy of the Parisian elites, even though it is the antithesis of the French political tradition and has never worked in Gaul. And to think that it is the ‘extreme right’ that is accused of looking to Berlin…
While we wait for these respectable ‘antifascist’ gentlemen and ladies to agree not to change the software that has led the fair country of France to regress at just about every level, the good people of the Right can do nothing but cry. But the great advantage of the political haggling that is about to take place will be to achieve the shameful compromise between almost all the political forces—which will give the national Right the chance to finally embody the only possible opposition.
The country is on the Right, but finds itself governed by the Left—a French curse that has an air of déjà vu. Patience: After the barricades of 1848, the time comes for Louis-Napoléon Bonaparte.
And Now, Who To Govern? France Leaping Into the Dark
Anti-riot police officers stand next to a burning pole during a gathering for the election night following the second round results of France’s legislative election at Republique Square in Paris on the night of July 8, 2024.
Photo: ALAIN JOCARD / AFP
The results of the second round of the French parliamentary elections, which were far removed from all the forecasts made by the opinion polls, took everyone by surprise. Instead of the expected victory of the Rassemblement National (RN) with a group of over 200 MPs, the French National Assembly is set to be the scene of fierce confrontations between three blocs separated by just a few MPs—with no serious majority, even relative, emerging.
Under these conditions, who can possibly claim to become prime minister and govern the country alongside Emmanuel Macron for the next three years that separate the French from the next presidential elections?
The left-wing alliance, renamed the New Popular Front (NFP), boasts that it has won. The reality is a little more complex. It is only a few MPs ahead of the other two blocs.
Above all, it is a long way from dominating in terms of the number of votes. There is something very unfair about the two-round system in force for French legislative elections. The RN obtained more than 10 million votes, or 36%, but only 143 MPs, while the Left obtained 7 million votes, or 25%, but ended up with 180 seats. Everything is being done to give a bonus to those who can bring together voters in a heterogeneous way to defeat their opponents, even in the absence of any ideological coherence. At the same time, on the other side of the Channel, Labour won 2/3 of the seats, with ‘only’ 33% of the vote.
In these conditions, we should not be surprised by the chaos that now reigns in France. No winners, no losers. No clear political direction. One man at the head of the country, Emmanuel Macron, a king without a kingdom, worn out by power, and incapable of convincing anyone to breathe new life into the three long—too long—years that remain before the end of his term.
Shall we despair? Of course not. History is there to give us some perspectives. In France, revolution always comes on the Left, and the rebound only comes after serious chaos. So we have to be patient and watch, teeth clenched, the gesticulations of the smallest minority of this New Popular Front, which would have us believe that it holds the country’s destiny and future in its hands.
For the moment, it’s hard to say who will be the next tenant of the elegant Hôtel de Matignon, where the prime minister’s residence is located. Gabriel Attal, the holder of the title, has formally given his resignation to President Macron. Macron refused it, simply asking him to stay on “to ensure the stability of the country”, according to Le Figaro.
The Left is chomping at the bit, too impatient to make its dangerous and mediocre little revolution. In a joint statement published on Tuesday, July 9th, the four political groupings of the New Popular Front “solemnly” warned Emmanuel Macron against “any attempt to misuse the institutions” by keeping Gabriel Attal in his post. The use of violence—whatever the journalists, who believe that it is one of the characteristics of the ‘far right’ which in France exists only in their sick imagination, claim—is in the genes of these sad socialist, communist, green, and ‘insoumis’ (unsubmissive) henchmen. Raphaël Arnault, a self-proclaimed ‘antifascist’ with three files on the ‘S list’—individuals posing a threat to state security—has entered the Assembly. Adrien Quatennens, a rebel MP convicted of domestic violence, is calling for a march on Matignon. But France can take it easy: it has consciously averted the danger of ‘fascism.’
So who will replace Attal? Nobody agrees, and it’s almost a given that the uncertainty and bickering will continue for some time to come. No one wants to hear about the insoumis, who strut and fret but have made no headway in terms of the number of MPs. Neither the greens nor the communists are strong enough within the coalition to hope to impose themselves.
That leaves the socialists. The French, somewhat amnesiac, have forgotten that Emmanuel Macron first made a name for himself as Minister for the Economy under the socialist François Hollande: it would therefore only be fair if a socialist became prime minister. To ensure that he remains in office, we need to look for a figure who is weak but not too unsympathetic, who will be likely to rally around him, on a case-by-case basis, the votes of the left and centre, and why not, of the centre-right which has refused to form an alliance with the RN. The German-style ‘grand coalition’ is the fantasy of the Parisian elites, even though it is the antithesis of the French political tradition and has never worked in Gaul. And to think that it is the ‘extreme right’ that is accused of looking to Berlin…
While we wait for these respectable ‘antifascist’ gentlemen and ladies to agree not to change the software that has led the fair country of France to regress at just about every level, the good people of the Right can do nothing but cry. But the great advantage of the political haggling that is about to take place will be to achieve the shameful compromise between almost all the political forces—which will give the national Right the chance to finally embody the only possible opposition.
The country is on the Right, but finds itself governed by the Left—a French curse that has an air of déjà vu. Patience: After the barricades of 1848, the time comes for Louis-Napoléon Bonaparte.
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