Austria as Ground Zero for Populism

The last decade has witnessed an explosive reconfiguration of European politics as successive populist waves have washed over the continent. Brought on by economic crises, repeated migrant surges, and corruption scandals, governments have been upended in nearly every member state. For some, the result has been seemingly endless elections. In others, traditional parties have simply been cast aside. Some states have seen extremes on both ends enter government. 

The first populist wave was driven by longstanding effects of the 2007-2008 economic crisis and the migrant waves of the 2010s. While the second has been turbo-charged by government overreach during the pandemic, three fundamental issues—economics, migration, and corruption—are still central to political discontent and realignment across the continent.

These issues have affected almost all member states. But there is only one that has borne witness to all of them in dramatic ways. For a microcosm of all of the ongoing changes in Europe—as well as a glimpse into what might happen next to the union at large—one can look to its very center: Austria. 

Austria upended

Since the mid-2010s, Austrian politics has been completely upended. In six years, the country has gone through six chancellors. This is a feat that even Bulgaria, with five elections in two years, has not managed to achieve. The reconfiguration started in 2017, when the center-Right People’s Party (ÖVP) rebranded itself under Sebastian Kurz, who won the 2017 elections and entered into coalition with the right-wing populist Freedom Party (FPÖ) before winning the 2019 election with an expanded majority and entering into a coalition with the Greens.

But while that coalition is still standing, it has become a dead government walking. Kurz is long gone, having been ousted amidst corruption allegations (which, over two years later, have yet to even be brought to trial). The party, currently led by Chancellor Karl Nehammer, is on track to be tied for second place in the 2024 parliamentary elections, sitting at just 22% in Politico’s Poll of Polls. Even if the ÖVP and the Greens wanted to enter into another coalition—which, based on their very public squabbling, is unlikely—as things stand they wouldn’t have close to a shot, combining for only about one-third of the electorate.

The leaders of the opposition, the Social Democratic Party (SPÖ)—with whom the ÖVP is tied for second place—are arguably in a worse spot. Like many once dominant center-left parties in Europe, they have been adrift since the economic and migrant crises of the 2010s. While the ÖVP-Green government’s mishandling of the pandemic briefly lifted the SPÖ’s numbers, they have since crashed down to the ÖVP’s levels, sometimes even lower. As if that were not enough, the party has only just emerged from a brutal leadership election. In a party member referendum, Chairwoman Pamela Rendi-Wagner (seen by many in the party as listless and directionless) came in third. The top two, the more conservative Hans Peter Doskozil, Governor of the Burgenland region, and the self-proclaimed Marxist Mayor Andreas Babler, advanced to a final round—where only party delegates can vote—which was narrowly won by Babler, the Marxist. Doskozil, in his run for the party chairmanship, made the implicit argument that, like Denmark’s socialists, the only way the SPÖ may be able to save itself is to turn to the Right on migration. However, now that the SPÖ has lurched to the Left, such a turn has been effectively ruled out.

As in Italy, France, and elsewhere, the beneficiaries of the center’s collapse have been the parties on the extreme ends of the political spectrum. The populist FPÖ (Freedom Party of Austria), though founded by ex-SS members, initially was a more traditional ‘liberal’ group, even propping up socialist governments in the 1970s and 1980s. However, in the 1990s the party took a hard tack to the Right, focusing more on bolstering Austrian culture and adopting a decidedly anti-immigrant platform under the banner of Österreich zuerst (“Austria First”).

In the 21st century, they have governed twice with the ÖVP. Their first government, formed with ÖVP Chancellor Wolfgang Schüssel in 2000, was extremely controversial; in response to its formation, all fellow member states of the then 14-country European Union temporarily levied sanctions on Austria. Its second time in power, in a coalition with the aforementioned Sebastian Kurz, lasted only about two years due to a corruption scandal under party leader Heinz-Christian Strache. Though the scandal was personal in nature and had no ties to the party itself, it still caused the party to suffer in the polls. The party was not helped by the fact that the scandal occurred in 2019, when the first populist wave was already starting to recede.

But now, led by firebrand former Interior Minister Herbert Kickl—who took a hard stance against coronavirus restrictions and has called for an asylum freeze—the FPÖ has come roaring back to life. It will soon govern in coalitions with the ÖVP in three-ninths of Austria’s regions, up from only one just under a year ago. And it has surged into a clear first-place nationally, fueled by continued anger over migration (Austria had the highest number of asylum requests per capita in the EU in 2022). If trends continue, Austria is likely to follow Italy into being led by a right-wing chancellor come 2024.

But it is not just the populist Right which has surged. The Austrian Communist Party (KPÖ), long considered something of a joke, last year won the mayoralty of Graz, Austria’s second largest city, ending the ÖVP’s 20-year rule there. And in Salzburg’s recent elections, the KPÖ jumped from 0.5% in 2018’s results to nearly 12%. Recent nationwide polls have seen them surge as high as 7%, which would be the party’s best result in the entire history of democratic Austria.

The populist Right in charge of Austria for the first time ever? Communists in parliament? It’s not just a hypothetical: it’s currently the most likely scenario for 2024.

Going towards the fringe

While there is still time before the election for the traditional parties to regain some of their support, it is difficult to see how they can completely turn this situation around. Babler’s leftism effectively rules out a coalition with any of the right-wing parties, leaving the SPÖ with an extremely unwieldy hypothetical coalition comprised of the neoliberal NEOS, the Greens, and the Austrian Communists. Such a coalition would be borderline unworkable. As for the ÖVP, they’ve been attempting to get as tough as the FPÖ on migration—but trying to out-Right Kickl on the FPÖ’s core issue is proving to be a losing battle.

Events in Austria should be a wake-up call for traditionally moderate parties around Europe and for European Union leadership. Amidst the aforementioned political chaos and economic troubles—inflation rates currently have risen to nearly 10%—Austrians no longer believe that their system is working. In a recent study, 60% said that it does not work as intended, and 90% labeled it “corrupt.” Desperate for a clear vision, voters are turning away from centrism and toward radicals and reactionaries on both the Left and Right for leadership. The SPÖ and the EU Commission may scoff when supporters of the FPÖ identify an Austrian as white, Christian, and born in Austria—but at least they are providing a definition. When the FPÖ’s opponents are asked for one, they can merely shrug their shoulders.

In the first populist wave, voters went for relatively moderate populists, like Kurz in Austria and the Five Star Movement in Italy. But the establishments in those countries did everything they could to block them. Now, voters are going for the real thing. Italians already elected Giorgia Meloni. Austrians now may follow with Herbert Kickl.

As for the rest of the continent? If the more moderate parties do not address voter concerns, they will be the next ones on the political chopping block.