European centrists are in the midst of a quiet but fierce battle for ideological dominance within the European Union, and at the heart of this conflict lies French President Emmanuel Macron. His attempts to push a liberal rebrand of Gaullism, “strategic autonomy,” has run headlong into the Atlanticist neo-liberal priorities of European Commission (EC) President Ursula von der Leyen.
Macron’s audacious dream—to position the EU as a global geopolitical player in its own right—has been thwarted by the EU Commission’s attempt to double down on its neoliberal fantasy of becoming a regulatory superpower.
From the forced resignation of French Commissioner Thierry Breton to the passage of the Artificial Intelligence Act and EU-Mercosur free trade agreement, Macron is increasingly unable to combat the authority of the EC, largely because of his own weakness.
Unable to mount the Gaullist muscle of his predecessors against the EC, Macron has failed to push back against the Commission’s ever-tightening grip. His commitment to the European project has essentially tied his hands in a fight that requires far more than diplomatic niceties.
Macron’s recent political woes are linked to his failure to secure vital French interests against the overreach of the Commission, such as the EU-Mercosur free trade agreement. Macron condemned it as “unacceptable,” warning of its potential to flood France’s agricultural sector with cheap South American imports. Yet, despite his objections, the deal sailed through. His failure to prevent its passage is a clear reflection of the power imbalance between Paris and Brussels—one that has added to his plummeting domestic support.
Macron’s popularity, as of February 6th, sits at a 76% disapproval rating according to Politico. The European Parliament elections on June 9th saw a humiliating loss for Macron’s electoral support in France and Renew Europe’s influence in Brussels. Failing to compete with the European People’s Party, the Macronist spearhead into European institutions has lost its lustre because of its spineless approach to negotiations with Brussels.
The French President’s Faustian bargain to call snap elections after such a defeat only accelerated his plummeting influence in Europe as his party came in second place after the left-wing Nouveau Front Populaire.
Then there’s the case of Thierry Breton. The French Commissioner resigned on September 16th after a bitter clash with Commission President von der Leyen, over her centralising style of governance through the control of individual Commissioners’ actions, and Breton’s rogue letter to X CEO Elon Musk regarding the platform’s non-compliance with European censorship regulation. Breton’s forced resignation wasn’t just a clash of personalities, but stark evidence of Macron’s diminished influence and ability to combat the EC’s demands even with regard to the appointment of Commissioners, a right ostensibly vested in individual member states.
Macron’s credibility took another hit in February with the French AI Action Summit held on February 10th.
Designed to secure European involvement in the emerging industry, Macron’s event was pre-emptively sabotaged by von der Leyen’s Artificial Intelligence Act, which Paris failed to change. Such Commission regulations, contrary to Macronist goals, have reduced the competitiveness of the European economy and allowed American firms such as Microsoft to poach valuable tools such as the French AI start-up Mistral AI.
As Franco-German leadership has become too weak to stand up against Ursula von der Leyen’s cadre of unelected technocrats in Brussels, their economic interests are at the mercy of destructive policy measures such as the Commission’s commitment to ban petrol and diesel cars by 2035 in its quest to reach its 2025 net-zero carbon emission target.
In the past, foreign leaders speaking to Europe did so through the French and German governments in recognition of their economic dominance of the EU. Today, the once unthinkable idea that even diplomatic authority might be controlled by bureaucrats in Brussels is a reality, with the Common Foreign and Security Policy increasingly in the Commission’s hands.
In a February 17th post following a meeting that included Ursula von der Leyen, European Council President Antonio Costa, and NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, Macron stated work on European security would “continue based on the European Commission’s proposals, both in supporting Ukraine and in developing and investing in our defense.“
Macron’s subordination to the European Commission on security matters has shattered his prior independent diplomatic strategies, like the one that saw him meet with Vladimir Putin in February 2022 before the invasion of Ukraine began. Even Macron’s February 24th meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump was a diplomatic mission to directly express the opinions of the EU Commission towards the peace deal in Ukraine.
With French leadership of the European project in decline and the EU Commission further centralising power and influence outside the hands of member state leaders, von der Leyen appears to have won the battle for European centrism. But the story may not be over yet. With President Donald Trump back in the White House and the trans-Atlantic relationship facing new strains, the Commission may seek to pivot towards its own brand of strategic autonomy—on von der Leyen’s terms.
Inside the Centrist Battle for Europe: Is Macronism on its Deathbed?
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and French President Emmanuel Macron
Photo: Olivier HOSLET / POOL / AFP
European centrists are in the midst of a quiet but fierce battle for ideological dominance within the European Union, and at the heart of this conflict lies French President Emmanuel Macron. His attempts to push a liberal rebrand of Gaullism, “strategic autonomy,” has run headlong into the Atlanticist neo-liberal priorities of European Commission (EC) President Ursula von der Leyen.
Macron’s audacious dream—to position the EU as a global geopolitical player in its own right—has been thwarted by the EU Commission’s attempt to double down on its neoliberal fantasy of becoming a regulatory superpower.
From the forced resignation of French Commissioner Thierry Breton to the passage of the Artificial Intelligence Act and EU-Mercosur free trade agreement, Macron is increasingly unable to combat the authority of the EC, largely because of his own weakness.
Unable to mount the Gaullist muscle of his predecessors against the EC, Macron has failed to push back against the Commission’s ever-tightening grip. His commitment to the European project has essentially tied his hands in a fight that requires far more than diplomatic niceties.
Macron’s recent political woes are linked to his failure to secure vital French interests against the overreach of the Commission, such as the EU-Mercosur free trade agreement. Macron condemned it as “unacceptable,” warning of its potential to flood France’s agricultural sector with cheap South American imports. Yet, despite his objections, the deal sailed through. His failure to prevent its passage is a clear reflection of the power imbalance between Paris and Brussels—one that has added to his plummeting domestic support.
Macron’s popularity, as of February 6th, sits at a 76% disapproval rating according to Politico. The European Parliament elections on June 9th saw a humiliating loss for Macron’s electoral support in France and Renew Europe’s influence in Brussels. Failing to compete with the European People’s Party, the Macronist spearhead into European institutions has lost its lustre because of its spineless approach to negotiations with Brussels.
The French President’s Faustian bargain to call snap elections after such a defeat only accelerated his plummeting influence in Europe as his party came in second place after the left-wing Nouveau Front Populaire.
Then there’s the case of Thierry Breton. The French Commissioner resigned on September 16th after a bitter clash with Commission President von der Leyen, over her centralising style of governance through the control of individual Commissioners’ actions, and Breton’s rogue letter to X CEO Elon Musk regarding the platform’s non-compliance with European censorship regulation. Breton’s forced resignation wasn’t just a clash of personalities, but stark evidence of Macron’s diminished influence and ability to combat the EC’s demands even with regard to the appointment of Commissioners, a right ostensibly vested in individual member states.
Macron’s credibility took another hit in February with the French AI Action Summit held on February 10th.
Designed to secure European involvement in the emerging industry, Macron’s event was pre-emptively sabotaged by von der Leyen’s Artificial Intelligence Act, which Paris failed to change. Such Commission regulations, contrary to Macronist goals, have reduced the competitiveness of the European economy and allowed American firms such as Microsoft to poach valuable tools such as the French AI start-up Mistral AI.
As Franco-German leadership has become too weak to stand up against Ursula von der Leyen’s cadre of unelected technocrats in Brussels, their economic interests are at the mercy of destructive policy measures such as the Commission’s commitment to ban petrol and diesel cars by 2035 in its quest to reach its 2025 net-zero carbon emission target.
In the past, foreign leaders speaking to Europe did so through the French and German governments in recognition of their economic dominance of the EU. Today, the once unthinkable idea that even diplomatic authority might be controlled by bureaucrats in Brussels is a reality, with the Common Foreign and Security Policy increasingly in the Commission’s hands.
In a February 17th post following a meeting that included Ursula von der Leyen, European Council President Antonio Costa, and NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, Macron stated work on European security would “continue based on the European Commission’s proposals, both in supporting Ukraine and in developing and investing in our defense.“
Macron’s subordination to the European Commission on security matters has shattered his prior independent diplomatic strategies, like the one that saw him meet with Vladimir Putin in February 2022 before the invasion of Ukraine began. Even Macron’s February 24th meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump was a diplomatic mission to directly express the opinions of the EU Commission towards the peace deal in Ukraine.
With French leadership of the European project in decline and the EU Commission further centralising power and influence outside the hands of member state leaders, von der Leyen appears to have won the battle for European centrism. But the story may not be over yet. With President Donald Trump back in the White House and the trans-Atlantic relationship facing new strains, the Commission may seek to pivot towards its own brand of strategic autonomy—on von der Leyen’s terms.
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