Let me predict it here and now: Donald Trump is not going to be the Republican candidate in next year’s presidential election.
If there was one message that came out of the debate at the Ronald Reagan Library in California on Wednesday night, it was this: the Republican party is ready to move on from Donald Trump. In his absence—Trump skipped the first debate as well—Vivek Ramaswamy praised the ‘Trump legacy,’ as if Trump had already stepped out of the race.
Who will replace Trump as the Republican nominee in 2024?
Ron DeSantis.
Trump still leads the polls, and often by breathtaking margins, but that could change quickly. It matters less why Trump would leave; what is more important is that he already has a worthy Republican successor: the governor of Florida was the only one who looked presidential on stage.
All the lines that DeSantis delivered during the debate were effective and forceful. He presented his policy positions and presidential agenda with just the right balance of confidence and openness. He perfectly tied every policy issue back to his gubernatorial record. When debating the other candidates, his replies and comments were delivered in a natural voice and with a kind of confidence that he did not show in the first debate.
There is no doubt that DeSantis, like almost every other politician, is carefully scripted when he appears on the campaign trail. That, however, does not hold him back: it was easy to get the impression that every time DeSantis spoke, it was extemporaneously and driven by a desire to be heard and understood at every turn.
Generally speaking, the latest Republican debate was upbeat and positive, even when the candidates got into the inevitable, informal one-on-one exchanges. All the candidates except Governor Burgum did a convincing job. Even Nikki Haley performed well, but she also came across as disorganized or unfocused: on a couple of occasions she got caught on the losing end of a dispute with another candidate over facts.
If Ambassador Haley wants to be a contender, she has to learn not to step into the rhetorical traps that other candidates set for her.
One of the best performers on the debate stage was Senator Tim Scott. Like Haley, he is from South Carolina, but unlike Haley, he is not a neocon. He is solidly conservative, and he did a commendable job of putting his conservative prowess on full display with the audience. Among his several high points, two turned into truly great moments. One of those moments came when he mentioned that he had written President Trump’s “Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.” This bill gave America a real tax reform and the strongest economy in half a century.
Senator Scott’s other great moment came when he brilliantly dismissed the idea that the legacy of slavery is holding back America’s black population. The destruction of the black family, he said, was the result of President Lyndon Johnson’s welfare-state expansion of 1964. Coming from a black man who was raised by a poor, single mom, this was a powerful message that Democrats will have a hard time countering (in part because it is true).
The strongest performer from the last debate, Vivek Ramaswamy, was energetic and eager to participate. Unfortunately, he continued his record of being sloppy with facts and details. On one occasion, he inadvertently claimed that should he be elected president, he would take office “in January 2026″—a year too late.
On another occasion, Ramaswamy made a comment that seemed to say that all 50 states use zero-based budgeting to fund their state governments. This is simply not true: zero-based budgeting is conspicuously absent in American public finance.
Both points against Ramaswamy may seem like irrelevant details, and they certainly will not cost him any backing among potential primary voters. However, they exemplify a kind of carelessness with details that is unbecoming of someone who wants to be President of the United States.
As the debate unfolded, it became clear that Ramaswamy no longer stood out ahead of the crowd like he did after the first debate. This was in no way Ramaswamy’s own fault, but rather the result of considerably more powerful performances by the other candidates. Furthermore, Ramaswamy should have done a better job given that the attacks on him from other candidates—the neocon squad—were mostly absent this time around.
In the last debate, Chris Christie, the former governor of New Jersey, relentlessly attacked Ramaswamy. On Wednesday, he left the immigrant-son tech entrepreneur alone for the most part. Instead, Christie directed his attacks at Donald Trump. It made for entertaining rhetoric for the most part, but given the reactions from the audience, it probably will not make a dent in Governor Christie’s voter support (or lack thereof).
I was hoping for Christie to do better. This is not because of his attacks on Trump, whom I have enormous respect for. No, my positive attitude toward Christie is the result of the several years I lived in New York. Strange as it sounds to New Yorkers, I developed an appreciation for New Jersey and its people. Christie, a dyed-in-the-wool Jerseyite, has a characteristic way of communicating ideas and rhetorical comebacks.
Of more importance to the presidential race is the fact that Christie is a card-carrying neocon. This showed with more clarity in the first debate than in this one. The last time around, Christie coordinated everything he said with the other neocon squadsters, namely former Vice President Mike Pence, Ambassador Haley, and Asa Hutchinson, the former governor of Arkansas. Hutchinson did not qualify for this debate (by no means a critical loss to the presidential campaign) which left Christie, Haley, and Pence to defend the neocon strain of the Republican party.
The criticism of Trump was much more vocal in this debate than in the last one. Mike Pence, ironically Trump’s own vice president, accused Trump of wanting to amass more power in the hands of the federal government. DeSantis, confidently answering a question on abortion, took the opportunity to publicly criticize Trump’s pro-abortion stance.
Their comments regarding the former president contributed to the overall impression that this field of candidates has moved away from Trump—and that they expect Republican voters to do the same. This does not necessarily happen by them turning their backs on Trump; a much more likely scenario is that Trump at some point declares that he is pulling out of the race. However, irrespective of how the transition into a post-Trump campaign happens, it was interesting to see how most of the candidates unified this new outlook on the campaign with an upbeat attitude to policy reform.
It was as if they no longer felt compelled to look in the rearview mirror at President Trump’s one term in office.
With their newfound energy, both Ron DeSantis and Chris Christie vigorously pledged to ramp up the fight against crime in America. They both want to use federal prosecutors and the U.S. Department of Justice to enforce crimes that local, left-leaning district attorneys do not want to prosecute. Christie touted his experience as a former federal prosecutor, and DeSantis even promised to use the DOJ to file ‘civil rights’ cases against district attorneys who fail to do their jobs.
Trump may be on his way out, but his legacy will inspire future Republican candidates for years to come. As one example from this debate, Vivek Ramaswamy picked up on Trump’s desire to secure America’s border with Mexico. Ramaswamy pledged to use the military to close the Mexican border.
DeSantis added to that same issue, promising to use the military to fight the drug cartels.
Health care is another issue with Trump’s fingerprints on it. In line with the former president’s work to deregulate America’s health care sector, the candidates in Wednesday’s debate showed universal agreement on getting government out of health care. As Governor Burgum put it, wherever government gets involved to make it more affordable, be it higher education or health insurance, it gets more expensive.
When it came to foreign policy, the willingness of the candidates to carry the Trump torch weakened considerably. Vivek Ramaswamy was a notable exception: he dared stand up and say that the Ukrainian government, like its Russian counterpart, is corrupt. He called for a real peace plan for Ukraine that does not drive Putin deeper into the arms of China.
Chris Christie immediately countered with a bona fide neocon war speech about fighting Putin at every turn. Regardless of where one stands on how to bring the war in Ukraine to an end, it was sad to see Christie so summarily dismiss any ambitions to help the peace efforts.
Based on the overall performance of the candidates, the most likely to drop out next are Nikki Haley (at times, she seemed unbalanced) and Governor Doug Burgum, who again was marginalized throughout the debate. Haley could stay in the race as a potential candidate for vice president, but barring anyone’s interest in keeping her around for the second spot on the presidential election ticket, she does not have the focus or stamina to last through next year’s primary elections.
Republican Debate Was Ron’s Night
(From L) North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum, former Governor of New Jersey Chris Christie, former Governor from South Carolina and UN ambassador Nikki Haley, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, US Senator from South Carolina Tim Scott and former US Vice President Mike Pence attend the second Republican presidential primary debate at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley, California, on September 27, 2023.
Photo: Robyn BECK / AFP
Let me predict it here and now: Donald Trump is not going to be the Republican candidate in next year’s presidential election.
If there was one message that came out of the debate at the Ronald Reagan Library in California on Wednesday night, it was this: the Republican party is ready to move on from Donald Trump. In his absence—Trump skipped the first debate as well—Vivek Ramaswamy praised the ‘Trump legacy,’ as if Trump had already stepped out of the race.
Who will replace Trump as the Republican nominee in 2024?
Ron DeSantis.
Trump still leads the polls, and often by breathtaking margins, but that could change quickly. It matters less why Trump would leave; what is more important is that he already has a worthy Republican successor: the governor of Florida was the only one who looked presidential on stage.
All the lines that DeSantis delivered during the debate were effective and forceful. He presented his policy positions and presidential agenda with just the right balance of confidence and openness. He perfectly tied every policy issue back to his gubernatorial record. When debating the other candidates, his replies and comments were delivered in a natural voice and with a kind of confidence that he did not show in the first debate.
There is no doubt that DeSantis, like almost every other politician, is carefully scripted when he appears on the campaign trail. That, however, does not hold him back: it was easy to get the impression that every time DeSantis spoke, it was extemporaneously and driven by a desire to be heard and understood at every turn.
Generally speaking, the latest Republican debate was upbeat and positive, even when the candidates got into the inevitable, informal one-on-one exchanges. All the candidates except Governor Burgum did a convincing job. Even Nikki Haley performed well, but she also came across as disorganized or unfocused: on a couple of occasions she got caught on the losing end of a dispute with another candidate over facts.
If Ambassador Haley wants to be a contender, she has to learn not to step into the rhetorical traps that other candidates set for her.
One of the best performers on the debate stage was Senator Tim Scott. Like Haley, he is from South Carolina, but unlike Haley, he is not a neocon. He is solidly conservative, and he did a commendable job of putting his conservative prowess on full display with the audience. Among his several high points, two turned into truly great moments. One of those moments came when he mentioned that he had written President Trump’s “Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.” This bill gave America a real tax reform and the strongest economy in half a century.
Senator Scott’s other great moment came when he brilliantly dismissed the idea that the legacy of slavery is holding back America’s black population. The destruction of the black family, he said, was the result of President Lyndon Johnson’s welfare-state expansion of 1964. Coming from a black man who was raised by a poor, single mom, this was a powerful message that Democrats will have a hard time countering (in part because it is true).
The strongest performer from the last debate, Vivek Ramaswamy, was energetic and eager to participate. Unfortunately, he continued his record of being sloppy with facts and details. On one occasion, he inadvertently claimed that should he be elected president, he would take office “in January 2026″—a year too late.
On another occasion, Ramaswamy made a comment that seemed to say that all 50 states use zero-based budgeting to fund their state governments. This is simply not true: zero-based budgeting is conspicuously absent in American public finance.
Both points against Ramaswamy may seem like irrelevant details, and they certainly will not cost him any backing among potential primary voters. However, they exemplify a kind of carelessness with details that is unbecoming of someone who wants to be President of the United States.
As the debate unfolded, it became clear that Ramaswamy no longer stood out ahead of the crowd like he did after the first debate. This was in no way Ramaswamy’s own fault, but rather the result of considerably more powerful performances by the other candidates. Furthermore, Ramaswamy should have done a better job given that the attacks on him from other candidates—the neocon squad—were mostly absent this time around.
In the last debate, Chris Christie, the former governor of New Jersey, relentlessly attacked Ramaswamy. On Wednesday, he left the immigrant-son tech entrepreneur alone for the most part. Instead, Christie directed his attacks at Donald Trump. It made for entertaining rhetoric for the most part, but given the reactions from the audience, it probably will not make a dent in Governor Christie’s voter support (or lack thereof).
I was hoping for Christie to do better. This is not because of his attacks on Trump, whom I have enormous respect for. No, my positive attitude toward Christie is the result of the several years I lived in New York. Strange as it sounds to New Yorkers, I developed an appreciation for New Jersey and its people. Christie, a dyed-in-the-wool Jerseyite, has a characteristic way of communicating ideas and rhetorical comebacks.
Of more importance to the presidential race is the fact that Christie is a card-carrying neocon. This showed with more clarity in the first debate than in this one. The last time around, Christie coordinated everything he said with the other neocon squadsters, namely former Vice President Mike Pence, Ambassador Haley, and Asa Hutchinson, the former governor of Arkansas. Hutchinson did not qualify for this debate (by no means a critical loss to the presidential campaign) which left Christie, Haley, and Pence to defend the neocon strain of the Republican party.
The criticism of Trump was much more vocal in this debate than in the last one. Mike Pence, ironically Trump’s own vice president, accused Trump of wanting to amass more power in the hands of the federal government. DeSantis, confidently answering a question on abortion, took the opportunity to publicly criticize Trump’s pro-abortion stance.
Their comments regarding the former president contributed to the overall impression that this field of candidates has moved away from Trump—and that they expect Republican voters to do the same. This does not necessarily happen by them turning their backs on Trump; a much more likely scenario is that Trump at some point declares that he is pulling out of the race. However, irrespective of how the transition into a post-Trump campaign happens, it was interesting to see how most of the candidates unified this new outlook on the campaign with an upbeat attitude to policy reform.
It was as if they no longer felt compelled to look in the rearview mirror at President Trump’s one term in office.
With their newfound energy, both Ron DeSantis and Chris Christie vigorously pledged to ramp up the fight against crime in America. They both want to use federal prosecutors and the U.S. Department of Justice to enforce crimes that local, left-leaning district attorneys do not want to prosecute. Christie touted his experience as a former federal prosecutor, and DeSantis even promised to use the DOJ to file ‘civil rights’ cases against district attorneys who fail to do their jobs.
Trump may be on his way out, but his legacy will inspire future Republican candidates for years to come. As one example from this debate, Vivek Ramaswamy picked up on Trump’s desire to secure America’s border with Mexico. Ramaswamy pledged to use the military to close the Mexican border.
DeSantis added to that same issue, promising to use the military to fight the drug cartels.
Health care is another issue with Trump’s fingerprints on it. In line with the former president’s work to deregulate America’s health care sector, the candidates in Wednesday’s debate showed universal agreement on getting government out of health care. As Governor Burgum put it, wherever government gets involved to make it more affordable, be it higher education or health insurance, it gets more expensive.
When it came to foreign policy, the willingness of the candidates to carry the Trump torch weakened considerably. Vivek Ramaswamy was a notable exception: he dared stand up and say that the Ukrainian government, like its Russian counterpart, is corrupt. He called for a real peace plan for Ukraine that does not drive Putin deeper into the arms of China.
Chris Christie immediately countered with a bona fide neocon war speech about fighting Putin at every turn. Regardless of where one stands on how to bring the war in Ukraine to an end, it was sad to see Christie so summarily dismiss any ambitions to help the peace efforts.
Based on the overall performance of the candidates, the most likely to drop out next are Nikki Haley (at times, she seemed unbalanced) and Governor Doug Burgum, who again was marginalized throughout the debate. Haley could stay in the race as a potential candidate for vice president, but barring anyone’s interest in keeping her around for the second spot on the presidential election ticket, she does not have the focus or stamina to last through next year’s primary elections.
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