Starmer’s Dilemma

Political nicknames are not always on point. But in the case of Keir Starmer, the soubriquets of ‘Flipflop’ and ‘Captain Hindsight’ could hardly be closer to the money. In fact, there’s rarely been a politician more willing to straddle both sides of the fence than Sir Keir. On the issue of the Israel-Palestine war however, even Starmer knew it would be impossible to side with Hamas and get taken seriously by the British electorate. Having made his bed, Starmer finds himself waking up to an unusual problem for a Labour leader: a Muslim problem. 

Just a month ago, Starmer was riding high: 20 points clear in the polls, one eye on his inaugural address to the nation, the other on the blandest possible decor for Number 10. Suddenly all bets could be off, as 300 of the party’s Muslim councillors have threatened to resign unless the leadership calls for an immediate ceasefire; four shadow cabinet ministers are on ‘resignation watch,’ and worst of all, Muslim voters have threatened to boycott the party en masse. 

The unholy alliance of Islam and Labour has a long tradition in Britain, steeped in illegality. There are the continuous accusations of vote-rigging, the coercion and threats exerted on Muslims to vote Labour in rotten boroughs like Tower Hamlets, and of course the blind eyes turned to grooming gangs. One thing has always been consistent, however: Labour gets the votes, Islam gets to exert influence as and when it sees fit. 

And with around three-quarters of Muslims reliably voting Labour (71% at the last election), you don’t have to be a genius to work out that a high Muslim population translates into an ultra-safe Labour seat. When you actually examine the numbers however, that suspicion turns out to be a cast-iron certainty. 

According to the last census (2021), just shy of four million Muslims live in Britain—that’s 6.7% of the population. While the figure alone is not extraordinary, its electoral significance is likely much higher because Muslims are not evenly-dispersed throughout the country; tending instead to establish enclaves. Perhaps because of this, a recent report argued that up to 30 UK constituencies were majority Muslim. That’s not strictly true, but it doesn’t need to be. Even without a technical majority, beyond a certain point, the Muslim block vote is unstoppable. Consider the ten seats with the highest Muslim populations: the margins are so overwhelming, the other parties might as well not bother fielding a candidate:

In the above table I’ve compared the Labour vote share and Labour majorities in the ten most heavily-populated Muslim seats at the last general election in 2019. What we can clearly see is that six out of ten already have Muslim MPs, the average Muslim population is 47.5%, the average Labour vote share is 72%, and the average Labour majority is 56.5%. Put simply, it’s as close to a political certainty as you’re ever going to get. 

While Islam rarely seems to be especially political in Britain, it likes to flex its muscles from time to time, reminding its ‘masters’ who’s pulling the strings. Cast your mind back to 2005, when George Galloway established his own Respect Party and ‘hijacked’ Labour’s Muslim vote thanks to anger over the Iraq War. In the end, he managed to unseat the popular MP Oona King. In 2019 it was the turn of Dudley North, which turned Tory for the first time. Many insiders claimed this was due to broken Labour promises over the building of a new mosque. 

And of course, who can forget the surreal scenes at the Batley and Spen by-election in 2021, which was supposed to be a walk in the park for Labour candidate and sister of murdered MP Jo Cox, Kim Leadbetter. What should have been a formality turned into a nail-biter. Angered by the free speech display of Muhammad cartoons by a local school teacher (a teacher still in hiding to this day), and the positive LGBT stance of Leadbetter herself, local Muslims turned ugly. Almost 10,000 of them switched allegiance (again) to George Galloway; although this time he was unable to pull off the miracle, and Labour crept over the line with a majority of just 323. 

Labour needs the Muslim vote, but the question perhaps begging to be asked is: do Muslims still need Labour? There are rumblings that Islam already feels sufficiently emboldened enough to go it alone, as witnessed by the shows of strength outside Downing Street, across Westminster Bridge, and the takeover of Liverpool Street Station. This is backed up at least in part by recent research which suggests Labour is haemorrhaging the Muslim vote from 71% to just 5%, over Starmer’s refusal to call for a ceasefire. 

A further worrying sign for Labour was the recent (albeit refused) establishment of ‘The Party of Islam’, essayed just a fortnight ago. While the Electoral Commission confirmed the party proposal had failed to “meet the requirements set out in electoral law,” this is a hurdle such an enterprise can only fail so many times. Neither is this display limited to Britain. Other Western nations are waking up to the threat posed by their guests—Joe Biden too has been instructed in no uncertain terms, “No ceasefire, no votes.” 

For his part, Starmer has no real choice but to stand firm in defence of Israel—a flipflop on a matter of this magnitude would be electoral suicide. He has however (true to form) attempted to weasel his way out by denying a ceasefire but calling for “humanitarian pauses” (whatever the hell that means). He has also chosen (unbelievably) to send out a two-minute monologue on ‘Islamophobia Awareness Month’, which is hard to read as anything other than abject supplication:

If the world is somehow able to avoid WWIII before then, come the next general election things are certainly going to be interesting. Although he is still your best bet for the next PM, Starmer would do well to consider Labour’s addiction to the Muslim vote: block votes come at a price—chief among them, that they can be taken away.