President Macron put the press agencies to the test. Since the beginning of the week, we have been witnessing an incessant ballet of personalities from both the Right and the Left in turn announced as the new prime minister before disappearing from the limelight; ephemeral candidates who are in turn disowned. President Macron is taking his time, we are told. He eventually chose Michel Barnier as his PM. But now, does he even know where he’s going with him?
On Monday, September 2nd, everyone was convinced that the new prime minister would be the socialist Bertrand Cazeneuve. But no. On Tuesday, September 3rd, it was almost certain: the future head of government would be Thierry Beaudet—a senior civil servant and President of the Economic, Social and Environmental Council (CESE). But then it wasn’t. On Wednesday, September 4th, impatience was at its peak. This is traditionally the day of the Council of Ministers, so it was written in the stars that Macron would choose this day to unveil the name of the lucky man. The name of former centre-right minister Xavier Bertrand was the bookies’ favourite this time. And then, no.
But then who? For several days now, the French press has been using the metaphor of a conclave. The prime minister was awaited with almost as much impatience as the next pope, but the white smoke was slow in coming. And Wikipedia is at its wits’ end: there have been countless erroneous updates to the pages of potential candidates in the last 72 hours. On Thursday, September 5th, at last, the new favourite took the form of Michel Barnier, a former European Commissioner who, like Bertrand, comes from the centre-right. He’s the chosen one.
Was Macron wrong to take his time? Not necessarily. The initial mistake, which was incomprehensible to everyone, was the decision taken the day after the European elections to dissolve the Assembly. But given the chaos he himself has created, Macron had no choice but to weigh up his final decision at length, because he knows that a political crisis is almost certain at the end of the road, and that it could cost him dearly.
While the President’s interminable hesitations may give the impression that he is moving forward in a fog, it would seem that this strategy is very conscious on the part of a devious man used to manoeuvring. Green party leader Marine Tondelier accused him of deliberately choosing names “that he knows won’t work.” Throwing name-brand skewers at the media and the public in this way allows him to test the reactions of the political class and the French before committing himself definitively to a particular course of action.
He now knows that the left-wing coalition will not tolerate anyone other than a candidate from its ranks. He has also discovered—but how could he have forgotten?—that the Rassemblement National (RN), with its bloc of 142 MPs, holds the key to the stability of the next government.
While waiting for Macron to get his act together, the RN has been handing out good points and—above all—bad points. The party of Le Pen and Bardella has been very clear on one point: a government led by the left-wing coalition of the NFP would be instantly censured, without the slightest hesitation.
As for the rest, the RN shrugged its shoulders at the Thierry Beaudet option: a “stooge” who has always been hostile to the RN’s positions. Nor did they want to hear about Xavier Bertrand: didn’t he say in the past that it was better to vote for the communists than for the national Right? Before being officialised, the Michel Barnier option has been described as a “Jurassic Park” choice, or the art of trying to breathe life into fossils, by MP Jean-Philippe Tanguy, who is adept at good words and biting phrases. Yet the RN didn’t say anything about a possible rejection of Barnier. And what if it was, after all, the RN that made his appointment possible by not formally opposing it?
Barnier will certainly lead a technocratic policy. The prospect of a ‘technical government,’ initially rejected by Marine Le Pen, ends up doing her party’s business “as a last resort.”
Without the need to censor it for political reasons, a technical government would continue to embody the shortcomings of macronism, and would thus allow the RN to appear, more than ever, as the only credible opposition. “Marine Le Pen has an interest in having as puppet a government as possible, one that is entirely dependent on Macron so that she can criticise him every day. A technical government would enable her to target the president,” political scientist Erwan Lecœur explained to France Info.
For such a solution to be acceptable to the RN, Le Pen has set a number of conditions to give her support to the new government: that it “respects the elected representatives” of the RN and does not “treat them as pestiferous”; that it does not “worsen the problem of immigration and insecurity”; that it does not target the middle and working classes in its budget; and finally, that it implements proportional representation in the event of new elections having to be organised in the near future.
There is no certainty at the moment that Barnier will comply with the RN’s demands. Consequently, Marine Le Pen, as head of her parliamentary group, has every interest in deliberately maintaining vagueness about the attitude that the RN will ultimately adopt towards the new prime minister. By remaining unpredictable, the RN is increasing its power, much to the frustration of its opponents who are forced to admit, whatever the cost to them, that the party cannot be controlled.
“Censorship depends on the political line. We are free,” explained Jean-Philippe Tanguy. Now it’s up to Barnier to navigate through the reefs.
The Lost City of France: Where Is Macron Going?
Photo: Eluj de Pixabay
President Macron put the press agencies to the test. Since the beginning of the week, we have been witnessing an incessant ballet of personalities from both the Right and the Left in turn announced as the new prime minister before disappearing from the limelight; ephemeral candidates who are in turn disowned. President Macron is taking his time, we are told. He eventually chose Michel Barnier as his PM. But now, does he even know where he’s going with him?
On Monday, September 2nd, everyone was convinced that the new prime minister would be the socialist Bertrand Cazeneuve. But no. On Tuesday, September 3rd, it was almost certain: the future head of government would be Thierry Beaudet—a senior civil servant and President of the Economic, Social and Environmental Council (CESE). But then it wasn’t. On Wednesday, September 4th, impatience was at its peak. This is traditionally the day of the Council of Ministers, so it was written in the stars that Macron would choose this day to unveil the name of the lucky man. The name of former centre-right minister Xavier Bertrand was the bookies’ favourite this time. And then, no.
But then who? For several days now, the French press has been using the metaphor of a conclave. The prime minister was awaited with almost as much impatience as the next pope, but the white smoke was slow in coming. And Wikipedia is at its wits’ end: there have been countless erroneous updates to the pages of potential candidates in the last 72 hours. On Thursday, September 5th, at last, the new favourite took the form of Michel Barnier, a former European Commissioner who, like Bertrand, comes from the centre-right. He’s the chosen one.
Was Macron wrong to take his time? Not necessarily. The initial mistake, which was incomprehensible to everyone, was the decision taken the day after the European elections to dissolve the Assembly. But given the chaos he himself has created, Macron had no choice but to weigh up his final decision at length, because he knows that a political crisis is almost certain at the end of the road, and that it could cost him dearly.
While the President’s interminable hesitations may give the impression that he is moving forward in a fog, it would seem that this strategy is very conscious on the part of a devious man used to manoeuvring. Green party leader Marine Tondelier accused him of deliberately choosing names “that he knows won’t work.” Throwing name-brand skewers at the media and the public in this way allows him to test the reactions of the political class and the French before committing himself definitively to a particular course of action.
He now knows that the left-wing coalition will not tolerate anyone other than a candidate from its ranks. He has also discovered—but how could he have forgotten?—that the Rassemblement National (RN), with its bloc of 142 MPs, holds the key to the stability of the next government.
While waiting for Macron to get his act together, the RN has been handing out good points and—above all—bad points. The party of Le Pen and Bardella has been very clear on one point: a government led by the left-wing coalition of the NFP would be instantly censured, without the slightest hesitation.
As for the rest, the RN shrugged its shoulders at the Thierry Beaudet option: a “stooge” who has always been hostile to the RN’s positions. Nor did they want to hear about Xavier Bertrand: didn’t he say in the past that it was better to vote for the communists than for the national Right? Before being officialised, the Michel Barnier option has been described as a “Jurassic Park” choice, or the art of trying to breathe life into fossils, by MP Jean-Philippe Tanguy, who is adept at good words and biting phrases. Yet the RN didn’t say anything about a possible rejection of Barnier. And what if it was, after all, the RN that made his appointment possible by not formally opposing it?
Barnier will certainly lead a technocratic policy. The prospect of a ‘technical government,’ initially rejected by Marine Le Pen, ends up doing her party’s business “as a last resort.”
Without the need to censor it for political reasons, a technical government would continue to embody the shortcomings of macronism, and would thus allow the RN to appear, more than ever, as the only credible opposition. “Marine Le Pen has an interest in having as puppet a government as possible, one that is entirely dependent on Macron so that she can criticise him every day. A technical government would enable her to target the president,” political scientist Erwan Lecœur explained to France Info.
For such a solution to be acceptable to the RN, Le Pen has set a number of conditions to give her support to the new government: that it “respects the elected representatives” of the RN and does not “treat them as pestiferous”; that it does not “worsen the problem of immigration and insecurity”; that it does not target the middle and working classes in its budget; and finally, that it implements proportional representation in the event of new elections having to be organised in the near future.
There is no certainty at the moment that Barnier will comply with the RN’s demands. Consequently, Marine Le Pen, as head of her parliamentary group, has every interest in deliberately maintaining vagueness about the attitude that the RN will ultimately adopt towards the new prime minister. By remaining unpredictable, the RN is increasing its power, much to the frustration of its opponents who are forced to admit, whatever the cost to them, that the party cannot be controlled.
“Censorship depends on the political line. We are free,” explained Jean-Philippe Tanguy. Now it’s up to Barnier to navigate through the reefs.
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