On Super Tuesday, March 5th, Donald Trump won enough convention delegates to make himself inevitable as the Republican presidential candidate. Trump defeated his only remaining opponent Nikki Haley in 14 of the 15 states that held primaries or caucuses.
His victories varied in size, from capturing 83% of the votes in Alabama and 82% in Oklahoma, to 58% in Utah Haley won Vermont but only by 50% to Trump’s 46%.
It has happened before that a presidential candidate has de facto secured his party’s nomination on Super Tuesday, but it is also not uncommon that the primaries end with no decisive winner. In these situations—which have become less common in recent election cycles—it is up to the candidates to negotiate a solution before or, at the latest when the party holds its convention to nominate its presidential candidate.
No such bargaining will be necessary this time, on either side of the political aisle. The Democratic party has done its best to pretend that it does not even hold primaries, the purpose of course being to discourage any pretense of competition with Biden. This has yielded a convenient, campaign-free streak of primary election victories for the incumbent president.
Trump, on the other hand, has worked hard for his victories. Having campaigned continuously across the country, the former president has held rallies where large crowds exhibit the same level of enthusiasm they did in 2016. Yes, fewer people drive across multiple states to hear Trump, and it is difficult to find people who camp outside of the rally events a day in advance, but he still draws large numbers of people.
Primary election results speak a similar language. His victories thus far in the primaries have been decisive, putting 20, 30, even 40 percentage points and more between him and Nikki Haley. The only exceptions are Haley’s narrow win in Vermont, and overwhelming one in Washington, D.C., which is not a state, and is politically heavily slanted to the left—even among Republicans.
In other words, there is no doubt that Trump’s loyal voter base is as enthusiastic about him now as they were in the past two presidential elections. Judging from the inability of other candidates to make a dent in the former president’s lead in the opinion polls, it also looks like he has added voters who were previously lukewarm or directly opposed to him. In their latest round-up of polls, RealClearPolitics reports Trump ahead of Biden in six of the seven most contested, so-called ‘battleground’ states.
The immediate question for Trump is whether or not he can win over Nikki Haley’s supporters; according to several news outlets, the resounding loss on Super Tuesday has motivated her to drop out of the race. Trump’s lead over Biden in general opinion polls is reassuring for right-of-center voters, but nothing unique. It happens in every presidential cycle that the Republican nominee edges out his Democratic opponent in early polls—that does not mean he will win in November.
With that said, Trump’s voter base is far more excited and enthusiastic than the core of Biden supporters are. This enthusiasm rubs off on uncommitted voters; if my friend the Trump supporter is passionate about his candidate and my friend the Biden supporter talks about his candidate like he was describing a concrete wall, then who am I more inclined to be inspired by?
Emerging from Super Tuesday, Trump has a great opportunity to set in motion a groundswell of broader voter outreach. Beyond the Republicans who have yet to line up behind him, he also has to tap into the sizable segment of voters who describe themselves as independent. They are typically swing voters who will look more at policy issues and a candidate’s character than ideological values and principles.
If the polls are any indication, Trump has made good inroads with independents, adding to his convincing, 5+% leads in opinion polls in Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, and Nevada. These are all ‘battleground’ states considered essential to whoever wants to win the presidential election.
At the same time, Trump still has a long way to go to build winnable margins over Biden in other battleground states, such as Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. In these states, Trump’s lead is at best one percentage point; virtually anything can happen that will erase such a thin lead.
As if sensing the pivotal nature of this moment in his presidential campaign, Trump gave a victory speech on the eve of Super Tuesday that was one of the most reconciliatory I have ever heard him give. He spoke of unifying the Republican party and, by extension, the country. His style was more mellow than what we have grown used to, and there were no attacks on President Biden or anyone else.
Despite his more statesman-like performance during the speech, Trump also offered a glimpse of his rhetorical prowess. He painted a stark contrast between his term in office and what America looks like after three years of having Biden in office. He touched upon multiple policy issues, paying special attention to immigration and crime, but he also mentioned that he did not start any wars.
The speech gave us a glimpse of what kind of candidate Trump might be going forward. If he puts the ad-hominem rhetoric aside and puts the spotlight entirely on contrasting policies and outcomes, he has a very good chance of winning over both Republican stalwarts and skeptical independents.
That is not to say Trump’s path from Super Tuesday to Election Day is going to be easy. His biggest enemy from hereon will be the legal challenges he is facing. Only a fool could assume that these challenges are not part of a political game to keep Trump off the ballot; while President Biden seems to escape unharmed from allegations of bribery, Trump is being pressured from so many angles at the same time that a normal person would have given up by now.
Assuming that Trump gets out of all these challenges unscathed enough to conclude the presidential campaign, and assuming that he maintains his almost statesman-like manner from his Super Tuesday victory speech, then there is a significant chance that he wins a second term in November. So far, he has impressed even skeptics like me—I would have preferred Florida Governor Ron DeSantis as the Republican candidate—with his gradual move toward coming across as a national unifier. I am not so naive that I believe that Trump’s new rhetorical approach will result in actual policy if he wins, but I do think his new approach will have a tangible effect on the opinion polls.
The big question before Trump is what happens if the Democrats decide that Joe Biden does not have a prayer against Trump. If they do, it will happen in time for their party convention in August, where a new candidate can then be elected. Technically, it is up to Biden whether he wants to run or not; in practice, given the president’s steadily diminishing faculties, if the Democrat party needs a new candidate, they will ‘convince’ Biden to retire and not seek a second term.
If we get to this point, Trump’s chances of winning will depend entirely on how much of independent voters support him for what he is, as opposed to supporting him because they dislike the other candidate. If independents in general are ready to vote for Trump, then he has a strong chance to win in November; if they just want to vote against Biden, the arrival of a new Democrat candidate would lead independents to quickly shift their votes away from Trump.
The Donald Trump who took to the stage and expressed his feelings after winning a decisive streak of victories on Tuesday is a Donald Trump with the potential to become a great second-term president. He has not won me over, but given his gradual transformation as a candidate, I will give him the chance to do just that.
After all, what are the alternatives when we get to November?
Trump Steamrolls Haley on Super Tuesday
Former U.S. President and 2024 presidential hopeful Donald Trump arrives to speak during a Super Tuesday election night watch party at Mar-a-Lago Club in Palm Beach, Florida, on March 5, 2024.
Photo: CHANDAN KHANNA / AFP
On Super Tuesday, March 5th, Donald Trump won enough convention delegates to make himself inevitable as the Republican presidential candidate. Trump defeated his only remaining opponent Nikki Haley in 14 of the 15 states that held primaries or caucuses.
His victories varied in size, from capturing 83% of the votes in Alabama and 82% in Oklahoma, to 58% in Utah Haley won Vermont but only by 50% to Trump’s 46%.
It has happened before that a presidential candidate has de facto secured his party’s nomination on Super Tuesday, but it is also not uncommon that the primaries end with no decisive winner. In these situations—which have become less common in recent election cycles—it is up to the candidates to negotiate a solution before or, at the latest when the party holds its convention to nominate its presidential candidate.
No such bargaining will be necessary this time, on either side of the political aisle. The Democratic party has done its best to pretend that it does not even hold primaries, the purpose of course being to discourage any pretense of competition with Biden. This has yielded a convenient, campaign-free streak of primary election victories for the incumbent president.
Trump, on the other hand, has worked hard for his victories. Having campaigned continuously across the country, the former president has held rallies where large crowds exhibit the same level of enthusiasm they did in 2016. Yes, fewer people drive across multiple states to hear Trump, and it is difficult to find people who camp outside of the rally events a day in advance, but he still draws large numbers of people.
Primary election results speak a similar language. His victories thus far in the primaries have been decisive, putting 20, 30, even 40 percentage points and more between him and Nikki Haley. The only exceptions are Haley’s narrow win in Vermont, and overwhelming one in Washington, D.C., which is not a state, and is politically heavily slanted to the left—even among Republicans.
In other words, there is no doubt that Trump’s loyal voter base is as enthusiastic about him now as they were in the past two presidential elections. Judging from the inability of other candidates to make a dent in the former president’s lead in the opinion polls, it also looks like he has added voters who were previously lukewarm or directly opposed to him. In their latest round-up of polls, RealClearPolitics reports Trump ahead of Biden in six of the seven most contested, so-called ‘battleground’ states.
The immediate question for Trump is whether or not he can win over Nikki Haley’s supporters; according to several news outlets, the resounding loss on Super Tuesday has motivated her to drop out of the race. Trump’s lead over Biden in general opinion polls is reassuring for right-of-center voters, but nothing unique. It happens in every presidential cycle that the Republican nominee edges out his Democratic opponent in early polls—that does not mean he will win in November.
With that said, Trump’s voter base is far more excited and enthusiastic than the core of Biden supporters are. This enthusiasm rubs off on uncommitted voters; if my friend the Trump supporter is passionate about his candidate and my friend the Biden supporter talks about his candidate like he was describing a concrete wall, then who am I more inclined to be inspired by?
Emerging from Super Tuesday, Trump has a great opportunity to set in motion a groundswell of broader voter outreach. Beyond the Republicans who have yet to line up behind him, he also has to tap into the sizable segment of voters who describe themselves as independent. They are typically swing voters who will look more at policy issues and a candidate’s character than ideological values and principles.
If the polls are any indication, Trump has made good inroads with independents, adding to his convincing, 5+% leads in opinion polls in Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, and Nevada. These are all ‘battleground’ states considered essential to whoever wants to win the presidential election.
At the same time, Trump still has a long way to go to build winnable margins over Biden in other battleground states, such as Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. In these states, Trump’s lead is at best one percentage point; virtually anything can happen that will erase such a thin lead.
As if sensing the pivotal nature of this moment in his presidential campaign, Trump gave a victory speech on the eve of Super Tuesday that was one of the most reconciliatory I have ever heard him give. He spoke of unifying the Republican party and, by extension, the country. His style was more mellow than what we have grown used to, and there were no attacks on President Biden or anyone else.
Despite his more statesman-like performance during the speech, Trump also offered a glimpse of his rhetorical prowess. He painted a stark contrast between his term in office and what America looks like after three years of having Biden in office. He touched upon multiple policy issues, paying special attention to immigration and crime, but he also mentioned that he did not start any wars.
The speech gave us a glimpse of what kind of candidate Trump might be going forward. If he puts the ad-hominem rhetoric aside and puts the spotlight entirely on contrasting policies and outcomes, he has a very good chance of winning over both Republican stalwarts and skeptical independents.
That is not to say Trump’s path from Super Tuesday to Election Day is going to be easy. His biggest enemy from hereon will be the legal challenges he is facing. Only a fool could assume that these challenges are not part of a political game to keep Trump off the ballot; while President Biden seems to escape unharmed from allegations of bribery, Trump is being pressured from so many angles at the same time that a normal person would have given up by now.
Assuming that Trump gets out of all these challenges unscathed enough to conclude the presidential campaign, and assuming that he maintains his almost statesman-like manner from his Super Tuesday victory speech, then there is a significant chance that he wins a second term in November. So far, he has impressed even skeptics like me—I would have preferred Florida Governor Ron DeSantis as the Republican candidate—with his gradual move toward coming across as a national unifier. I am not so naive that I believe that Trump’s new rhetorical approach will result in actual policy if he wins, but I do think his new approach will have a tangible effect on the opinion polls.
The big question before Trump is what happens if the Democrats decide that Joe Biden does not have a prayer against Trump. If they do, it will happen in time for their party convention in August, where a new candidate can then be elected. Technically, it is up to Biden whether he wants to run or not; in practice, given the president’s steadily diminishing faculties, if the Democrat party needs a new candidate, they will ‘convince’ Biden to retire and not seek a second term.
If we get to this point, Trump’s chances of winning will depend entirely on how much of independent voters support him for what he is, as opposed to supporting him because they dislike the other candidate. If independents in general are ready to vote for Trump, then he has a strong chance to win in November; if they just want to vote against Biden, the arrival of a new Democrat candidate would lead independents to quickly shift their votes away from Trump.
The Donald Trump who took to the stage and expressed his feelings after winning a decisive streak of victories on Tuesday is a Donald Trump with the potential to become a great second-term president. He has not won me over, but given his gradual transformation as a candidate, I will give him the chance to do just that.
After all, what are the alternatives when we get to November?
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