On February 14th, Nikki Haley declared that she is running for the Republican party’s nomination for president in next year’s election. Her candidacy was expected, but it came at a surprisingly early point in time.
Her announcement raises two questions:
- Why now?
- Who are her allies?
Having allies in a presidential run is essential—powerful allies, with exceptional contacts and the ability to raise a lot of money. Some estimates indicate that in 2020, Joe Biden and Donald Trump each spent $1 billion to win the presidency.
Nikki Haley is not the kind of politician who would declare her candidacy on a whim. She knows what a grueling experience a presidential campaign can be, and so do her allies. Based on the fact that she has declared her candidacy this early, we can conclude that whoever her closest allies are, they do not have the deep pockets that Donald Trump does. He is the only other official candidate at this time, and he is wealthy enough to fund his campaign on his own. He also has powerful friends with deep pockets.
If Haley started her official campaign this early because she needs to raise money, she has made the right decision. A candidate needs a lot of cash on hand when the primary season opens on January 22nd, 2024. On that day, the Democrat and Republican parties of Iowa hold their caucuses to decide who should be their presidential candidates. They are followed eight days later by the primary elections in New Hampshire.
A serious contender must be in a frontline position already at this point in the primary season. To be in that position, the candidate needs to have a lot of money in the bank, money that is spent on TV commercials, online ads, get-out-the-vote efforts on the ground in every state, and of course high-end meetings with wealthy and influential people.
With the primary season in full swing, there is no room for slackers in the field of candidates. Once it starts, it is full speed ahead: after Iowa and New Hampshire, the political circus that is the primary election machine makes quick stops in Nevada and South Carolina. Then comes March 5th, often referred to as Super Tuesday. This is the day when 14 states hold their primaries, including California and Texas. On the following Tuesdays, voters in another 9 states get to make their voices heard.
By this point in time, the race could already be over. Whoever came best prepared in all the relevant categories—money and a working ground operation in every primary state—edges out the competition. Furthermore, the primary season runs all the way through June 4th, but the power brokers in both parties will try to make sure there is a frontrunner already at the end of March.
If the votes cast do not produce a leader, that can be arranged by other means.
Each state elects a number of delegates for the party national convention, where those delegates are bound to vote for the candidate that won their state’s primary. The three big Tuesdays usually give enough delegate votes to one candidate, in order to elevate him or her above the competition.
If the emerging leader does not have a strong enough lead, the candidates and their top allies get down to horse trading. Here, it is essential to have the right allies, people who are not only passionate about their candidate as president, but also experienced enough to eke out the most for ‘their guy.’
Like businessmen trying to close deals, the negotiators buy and sell delegates for favors and returned favors. To take a hypothetical example: suppose that at the end of March John Doe has 25 delegates more than Jane Roe. Darth Vader is ranked third, with 30 delegates. If he releases his delegates to one of the two top candidates, that candidate will take the lead.
Suppose John Doe promises Darth Vader that ‘I will make you secretary of state’, and Jane Roe pledges ‘You will be my vice president.’ Vader can now pick the offer that is the most appealing to him. In this case, the vice-presidential slot seems more reliable: the secretary of state job will be filled long after the presidential election has taken place, and a lot of water will flow under the bridges until then. By contrast, the vice presidential candidate must be decided at the party convention. Vader goes with Jane Roe and formally transfers his delegates to her. The delegates are now obligated to vote for her at the convention.
This is just one example of how candidates can make deals to shape the outcome of the primaries, and to do so long before the last ones are held on June 4th. If this seems a bit unfair to the voters in the later primaries, that is because it is unfair. But that is also how American politics works—and everyone knows it.
But why, then, are the primaries held over such a long period of time? Why not just hold all primaries on one day?
We can all rest assured that Nikki Haley, like all other candidates, has pondered this question and reached the inevitable answer. That answer is not the official explanation, which has to do with the absence of national political parties in America. What we refer to as the Democrats and the Republicans are in reality parties for the federal elections, i.e., Congress and the presidency.
The national parties, in turn, have state affiliates that are formally independent organizations. These affiliates are free to make whatever decisions they want in terms of nominating a presidential candidate. This has resulted in a mix of candidate nomination venues. Most states have primary elections, which are either closed only to party members, or open to anyone who wants to participate. Other state parties have caucuses where active members or official representatives of local party chapters within the state get together and vote. Hence the drawn-out primary schedule.
That is the official reason why the primary season stretches out over almost five months. The unofficial reason is much more simple: fundraising. Every time a new state holds its primary or its caucus, the presidential candidates send in their fundraising teams and try to get people to donate as much cash as possible.
To make the fundraising aspect even more conspicuous, the money a candidate raises is not necessarily tied to his or her campaign. Once the cash is ‘inside’ the political system, there are many ways to use it.
As an illustration of how absurd the role of money can be, consider this episode from 2016. Back then, I was present at a meeting with a young, promising presidential candidate who was not a frontrunner, but was widely considered up-and-coming. Right before the caucus in the state where this took place, this candidate met with an established, very wealthy political donor. At the meeting, the candidate pledged to run all the way to the end of the primaries, and if he lost he would do it again four years later. The donor liked what he had to say and wrote him a substantial check.
The next day he dropped out of the race. He went through a lot of trouble to get his hand on that check.
Yes, American politics can be this cynical. But with the primary season looking the way it does, and with the enormous monetary muscle needed, it is no coincidence that a candidate like Nikki Haley declares her candidacy early. This shows that she is a serious candidate who has done her homework.
But can she win? I don’t think so. That, however, has nothing to do with Haley’s formal resume. She is experienced, having taken her first stab at politics in 2004 when she won the first of three terms as a state representative in South Carolina. In 2010 she was elected governor, succeeding scandal-ridden Mark Sanford.
Replacing a man who had sullied his own conservative reputation with extra-marital affairs and problematic use of public funds, Haley was a fresh wind of moral reliability. She quickly built a reputation as a competent governor who successfully led her state out of the deep economic recession of 2009-2011.
After winning re-election in 2014, Haley did not finish her second term. Halfway through it, in January 2017, she was appointed U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations. This is a prestigious and highly delicate job that Haley handled with diligence for the two years she had it.
Her resignation from the UN ambassador position was politically inconvenient for President Trump, with the announcement being made shortly before the 2018 Congressional elections. Haley has never given an outright motive, other than that she had ‘given it all,’ first as governor, then as ambassador. However, her name has been mentioned in the context of a presidential run ever since she was re-elected governor in 2014. As a woman from an ethnic minority—her parents were immigrants from India—she is often touted as an example of how the Republican party is not at all just for old, white men, as the Left often suggests.
It would be unfair, of course, to confine Nikki Haley to her ethnicity. She was a competent governor and a competent ambassador. Her big problem as a presidential candidate is not on that side—she would definitely know how to run America if given the chance. No, her problem is on the policy side: while she is a highly competent government executive who knows how to run a complex administration, she has never left any policy footprints of any significance that makes her stand out from the crowd.
In fairness, Haley is not alone in being a bit bland on the policy front. She is in good company with other former governors who many expect to jump into the presidential race: Chris Sununu of New Hampshire, Chris Christie of New Jersey, and Larry Hogan of Maryland.
There are more flavorful names among potential candidates. Donald Trump, who is the only one aside from Nikki Haley to declare his candidacy, runs on his first term as president. Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida, an often-mentioned presidential contender in 2024, has proven himself to be a fearless fighter for conservative social values. He has also led his state to exceptional economic success.
Mike Pence can point to his time as Trump’s vice president. Mike Pompeo, who served as secretary of state under President Trump, has earned solid foreign-policy credentials. His tenure as CIA director gives him competence on national security.
Should these people decide to run for president, Nikki Haley will have a tough time making the case for herself in their company. At this point, it is hard to see which qualities she has that would elevate her above the crowd and give her the edge that puts her up against the Democrat in November next year.
This brings us back to the two questions about her and her presidential run. The first one, about the timing of Haley’s announcement, is very likely answered by her need to raise money. The earlier she gets into the game, the more time she has to scrape together the necessary funds.
The second one, about her allies, is a bit trickier. What is particularly curious here, is that Haley still maintains good relations with President Trump. He threw a few jabs at her after she announced, but he has also struck a somewhat more friendly tone. More importantly, his comments on Nikki Haley are nothing compared to what Trump has said about Florida governor DeSantis, who has not even officially announced his interest in the presidency.
It is sometimes said about presidential candidates that they are really in the race to run for vice president. Since that is not actually possible, the saying is a half-joke about someone knowing he or she cannot win, but would like to be the winner’s running mate.
Is it possible that Nikki Haley is running to be Trump’s vice president?
Who Is Nikki Haley?
On February 14th, Nikki Haley declared that she is running for the Republican party’s nomination for president in next year’s election. Her candidacy was expected, but it came at a surprisingly early point in time.
Her announcement raises two questions:
Having allies in a presidential run is essential—powerful allies, with exceptional contacts and the ability to raise a lot of money. Some estimates indicate that in 2020, Joe Biden and Donald Trump each spent $1 billion to win the presidency.
Nikki Haley is not the kind of politician who would declare her candidacy on a whim. She knows what a grueling experience a presidential campaign can be, and so do her allies. Based on the fact that she has declared her candidacy this early, we can conclude that whoever her closest allies are, they do not have the deep pockets that Donald Trump does. He is the only other official candidate at this time, and he is wealthy enough to fund his campaign on his own. He also has powerful friends with deep pockets.
If Haley started her official campaign this early because she needs to raise money, she has made the right decision. A candidate needs a lot of cash on hand when the primary season opens on January 22nd, 2024. On that day, the Democrat and Republican parties of Iowa hold their caucuses to decide who should be their presidential candidates. They are followed eight days later by the primary elections in New Hampshire.
A serious contender must be in a frontline position already at this point in the primary season. To be in that position, the candidate needs to have a lot of money in the bank, money that is spent on TV commercials, online ads, get-out-the-vote efforts on the ground in every state, and of course high-end meetings with wealthy and influential people.
With the primary season in full swing, there is no room for slackers in the field of candidates. Once it starts, it is full speed ahead: after Iowa and New Hampshire, the political circus that is the primary election machine makes quick stops in Nevada and South Carolina. Then comes March 5th, often referred to as Super Tuesday. This is the day when 14 states hold their primaries, including California and Texas. On the following Tuesdays, voters in another 9 states get to make their voices heard.
By this point in time, the race could already be over. Whoever came best prepared in all the relevant categories—money and a working ground operation in every primary state—edges out the competition. Furthermore, the primary season runs all the way through June 4th, but the power brokers in both parties will try to make sure there is a frontrunner already at the end of March.
If the votes cast do not produce a leader, that can be arranged by other means.
Each state elects a number of delegates for the party national convention, where those delegates are bound to vote for the candidate that won their state’s primary. The three big Tuesdays usually give enough delegate votes to one candidate, in order to elevate him or her above the competition.
If the emerging leader does not have a strong enough lead, the candidates and their top allies get down to horse trading. Here, it is essential to have the right allies, people who are not only passionate about their candidate as president, but also experienced enough to eke out the most for ‘their guy.’
Like businessmen trying to close deals, the negotiators buy and sell delegates for favors and returned favors. To take a hypothetical example: suppose that at the end of March John Doe has 25 delegates more than Jane Roe. Darth Vader is ranked third, with 30 delegates. If he releases his delegates to one of the two top candidates, that candidate will take the lead.
Suppose John Doe promises Darth Vader that ‘I will make you secretary of state’, and Jane Roe pledges ‘You will be my vice president.’ Vader can now pick the offer that is the most appealing to him. In this case, the vice-presidential slot seems more reliable: the secretary of state job will be filled long after the presidential election has taken place, and a lot of water will flow under the bridges until then. By contrast, the vice presidential candidate must be decided at the party convention. Vader goes with Jane Roe and formally transfers his delegates to her. The delegates are now obligated to vote for her at the convention.
This is just one example of how candidates can make deals to shape the outcome of the primaries, and to do so long before the last ones are held on June 4th. If this seems a bit unfair to the voters in the later primaries, that is because it is unfair. But that is also how American politics works—and everyone knows it.
But why, then, are the primaries held over such a long period of time? Why not just hold all primaries on one day?
We can all rest assured that Nikki Haley, like all other candidates, has pondered this question and reached the inevitable answer. That answer is not the official explanation, which has to do with the absence of national political parties in America. What we refer to as the Democrats and the Republicans are in reality parties for the federal elections, i.e., Congress and the presidency.
The national parties, in turn, have state affiliates that are formally independent organizations. These affiliates are free to make whatever decisions they want in terms of nominating a presidential candidate. This has resulted in a mix of candidate nomination venues. Most states have primary elections, which are either closed only to party members, or open to anyone who wants to participate. Other state parties have caucuses where active members or official representatives of local party chapters within the state get together and vote. Hence the drawn-out primary schedule.
That is the official reason why the primary season stretches out over almost five months. The unofficial reason is much more simple: fundraising. Every time a new state holds its primary or its caucus, the presidential candidates send in their fundraising teams and try to get people to donate as much cash as possible.
To make the fundraising aspect even more conspicuous, the money a candidate raises is not necessarily tied to his or her campaign. Once the cash is ‘inside’ the political system, there are many ways to use it.
As an illustration of how absurd the role of money can be, consider this episode from 2016. Back then, I was present at a meeting with a young, promising presidential candidate who was not a frontrunner, but was widely considered up-and-coming. Right before the caucus in the state where this took place, this candidate met with an established, very wealthy political donor. At the meeting, the candidate pledged to run all the way to the end of the primaries, and if he lost he would do it again four years later. The donor liked what he had to say and wrote him a substantial check.
The next day he dropped out of the race. He went through a lot of trouble to get his hand on that check.
Yes, American politics can be this cynical. But with the primary season looking the way it does, and with the enormous monetary muscle needed, it is no coincidence that a candidate like Nikki Haley declares her candidacy early. This shows that she is a serious candidate who has done her homework.
But can she win? I don’t think so. That, however, has nothing to do with Haley’s formal resume. She is experienced, having taken her first stab at politics in 2004 when she won the first of three terms as a state representative in South Carolina. In 2010 she was elected governor, succeeding scandal-ridden Mark Sanford.
Replacing a man who had sullied his own conservative reputation with extra-marital affairs and problematic use of public funds, Haley was a fresh wind of moral reliability. She quickly built a reputation as a competent governor who successfully led her state out of the deep economic recession of 2009-2011.
After winning re-election in 2014, Haley did not finish her second term. Halfway through it, in January 2017, she was appointed U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations. This is a prestigious and highly delicate job that Haley handled with diligence for the two years she had it.
Her resignation from the UN ambassador position was politically inconvenient for President Trump, with the announcement being made shortly before the 2018 Congressional elections. Haley has never given an outright motive, other than that she had ‘given it all,’ first as governor, then as ambassador. However, her name has been mentioned in the context of a presidential run ever since she was re-elected governor in 2014. As a woman from an ethnic minority—her parents were immigrants from India—she is often touted as an example of how the Republican party is not at all just for old, white men, as the Left often suggests.
It would be unfair, of course, to confine Nikki Haley to her ethnicity. She was a competent governor and a competent ambassador. Her big problem as a presidential candidate is not on that side—she would definitely know how to run America if given the chance. No, her problem is on the policy side: while she is a highly competent government executive who knows how to run a complex administration, she has never left any policy footprints of any significance that makes her stand out from the crowd.
In fairness, Haley is not alone in being a bit bland on the policy front. She is in good company with other former governors who many expect to jump into the presidential race: Chris Sununu of New Hampshire, Chris Christie of New Jersey, and Larry Hogan of Maryland.
There are more flavorful names among potential candidates. Donald Trump, who is the only one aside from Nikki Haley to declare his candidacy, runs on his first term as president. Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida, an often-mentioned presidential contender in 2024, has proven himself to be a fearless fighter for conservative social values. He has also led his state to exceptional economic success.
Mike Pence can point to his time as Trump’s vice president. Mike Pompeo, who served as secretary of state under President Trump, has earned solid foreign-policy credentials. His tenure as CIA director gives him competence on national security.
Should these people decide to run for president, Nikki Haley will have a tough time making the case for herself in their company. At this point, it is hard to see which qualities she has that would elevate her above the crowd and give her the edge that puts her up against the Democrat in November next year.
This brings us back to the two questions about her and her presidential run. The first one, about the timing of Haley’s announcement, is very likely answered by her need to raise money. The earlier she gets into the game, the more time she has to scrape together the necessary funds.
The second one, about her allies, is a bit trickier. What is particularly curious here, is that Haley still maintains good relations with President Trump. He threw a few jabs at her after she announced, but he has also struck a somewhat more friendly tone. More importantly, his comments on Nikki Haley are nothing compared to what Trump has said about Florida governor DeSantis, who has not even officially announced his interest in the presidency.
It is sometimes said about presidential candidates that they are really in the race to run for vice president. Since that is not actually possible, the saying is a half-joke about someone knowing he or she cannot win, but would like to be the winner’s running mate.
Is it possible that Nikki Haley is running to be Trump’s vice president?
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