Mykola Volkivskyi was an advisor to the chairman of the Ukrainian Parliament’s Commission between 2014 and 2021. A political and economic expert and president of the First Ukrainian International Development Foundation, Volkivskyi participated in the NATO Summit in Lithuania. We discussed the results of the summit and what it meant for Ukraine and NATO.
What has changed for Ukraine since this NATO summit?
I think Vilnius is a very symbolic place for Ukraine. At the EU Summit in Vilnius in 2013, Ukraine missed the opportunity to start a process of Euro-integration and join the EU; the following year the Revolution of Dignity began. Now, 10 years later, another great opportunity is opening up in Vilnius—this time for NATO integration. At this summit, NATO’s MAP (membership action plan) for Ukraine has been cancelled and replaced by an annual national programme (ANP) under which NATO foreign ministers will periodically assess the progress of Ukraine’s reforms. For that reason, I believe this summit strengthens Ukraine’s relationship with NATO and secures its path to full membership.
Important defence agreements were reached at the summit, accompanied by a joint statement of support for Ukraine, which was unanimously endorsed by the G7 countries. This achievement represents a crucial step towards the establishment of a comprehensive system of bilateral security arrangements between Ukraine and the various guarantor nations, aimed at providing solid security guarantees to our country.
Is this joint declaration and the promise of future NATO membership enough for Ukraine?
The joint statement is the culmination of months of work by national security advisers from key NATO member countries, including the United States, the United Kingdom, France, and Germany. Its foundations were laid in the Kyiv Security Pact, drafted in September 2022. On the basis of this document, our government put forward different proposals for security guarantees for Ukraine. These proposals have been included in the joint declaration.
What are the practical effects of the joint declaration?
The joint declaration opens the door to bilateral security arrangements between Ukraine and the guarantor nations to improve Ukrainian defence capabilities: arms supply, military industry development, training, intelligence cooperation, and strengthening cyber security, in addition to technical and financial assistance, where necessary.
What about future NATO membership?
The declaration recognises that Ukraine’s security is an integral part of Euro-Atlantic security and, indeed, there is an explicit reference to Ukraine’s future NATO membership in which the Alliance pledges to support Ukrainian aspirations.
In addition, G7 member states have committed to holding Russia accountable and to take economic and legal measures to impose sanctions, freeze assets, establish redress mechanisms, and take legal action against those responsible for war crimes.
Some media reports have claimed that Ukraine was sidelined at this summit. A photo of Zelensky, alone among NATO dignitaries, has been widely publicised. Is there any truth to this?
This photo was taken during the arrival at an official dinner, when the president of the Republic of Lithuania, Gitanas Nausėda, was receiving NATO heads of state and governments at the Presidential Palace. President Zelensky was only there for a few seconds when the photographer captured this moment.
Just before this moment, Macron and his wife had hugged the president and, before that, he was hugged by the Lithuanian president. And then they all went as a group to the Presidential Palace for an official dinner. Ukraine has not been relegated, quite the contrary.
Another result of this summit is Sweden’s full membership in NATO.
First of all, it is worth noting that on the eve of last year’s NATO summit in Madrid, no one could have imagined that Finland and Sweden could join the Alliance due to Turkey’s strong opposition, represented by President Erdoğan. In particular, Russian propaganda constantly repeated that Erdoğan would never take this step because of his convictions. But on 28 June 2022 a historic meeting took place in Madrid and Erdoğan welcomed the efforts of these two Scandinavian countries to join NATO through an accelerated procedure.
Again this year, the day before the summit, Erdoğan agreed to ratify Sweden’s NATO accession protocol on that day. There was even an informal celebration at the hotel where all the Scandinavian delegations were staying. Sweden’s full integration into NATO is only a matter of time. I believe it will happen by the end of this year. The only purely technical step that remains is the ratification of the NATO accession agreement by the Hungarian parliament. According to information received from representatives of the ruling Fidesz party, all the details have already been agreed upon. The first meeting of the Hungarian parliament is scheduled for mid-September.
In addition to allowing Sweden to join NATO, Turkey has returned the commanders of the Azov Brigade, who were to remain in Turkey until the end of the war, and Erdoğan has asserted that Ukraine deserves to be in NATO. Has Turkey turned its back on Russia for good?
After Erdoğan’s victory in the second round of Turkey’s presidential elections, President Zelensky congratulated him even before the official results were announced, symbolising the good relationship our country’s leaders have with the Turkish president. The latest developments that took place during the official meeting between the Ukrainian and Turkish leaders demonstrate Erdoğan’s unwavering support for Ukraine. The return of our heroes, the Azov commanders, was a very important decision and shows that the development of bilateral relations will only improve. Erdoğan has made it clear that Turkey is not against Ukraine’s future NATO membership and deeply appreciates these integration processes.
Is Putin’s image worsening as a result of the Wagner mutiny?
Prigozhin’s actions dealt a severe blow to Putin’s image. His reputation as a strong leader has been badly damaged, as he failed to keep his protégés in line with the Kremlin’s agenda. The whole world witnessed his failure. Putin has become increasingly distant and isolated, maintaining contact only with a narrow circle of like-minded people. Consequently, this reduces his ability to influence the situation inside Russia. More importantly, developments in Russia set a precedent. Putin no longer seems untouchable. During the day, the Russian authorities were de facto absent; after the riots began, the Kremlin sent Generals Surovikin and Alekseev in the middle of the night to beg the ‘Wagnerites’ to stop. Putin, during his speech the next day, did not even name the rebels’ leader. Once the situation was resolved, many pro-government Telegram channels, which are at the forefront of propaganda efforts, made no secret of their mockery of the president. Putin has less and less of everything: people, money, weapons, influence, everything that allows him not only to continue the war, but also to sustain his authority in Russia itself. Ordinary Russians have realised that “Akela* missed the mark.”
*The old wolf leader of the pack from The Jungle Book. Putin is popularly nicknamed Akela in Russia.
So you think Russia’s internal problems have only just begun?
Prigozhin challenged Putin’s authority and revealed the weakness of the Russian army, which did not dare to engage in direct combat with the Wagnerites. Ukrainian soldiers were enthusiastic about these developments: if the crisis in Russia worsened, it would affect their army’s combat capability. At the current stage of the protest in Russia, which has not been eliminated, but only suspended, it will not affect the course of hostilities. At the same time, if socio-political turbulence in Russia increases, the combat capability of Russian troops will be reduced, especially if Russia’s defence ministry loses its status. This may help the Ukrainian military to win quick victories, but in a broader sense, Russia’s global crisis could pose a major threat not only to Ukraine, but also to the West. Nuclear power processes could become unmanageable.