David Campbell Bannerman was one of the final British MEPs representing the Conservative Party in the ECR Group. Bannerman also served as deputy leader and chairman of UKIP. He’s been serving as chairman of both The Freedom Association and Conservative Democratic Action. He is the author of Time to Jump.
We have seen contradictory statements from the U.S. side on Ukraine and a very tough stance from Donald Trump. What do you think is going on?
I think Trump is negotiating and I think he’s three steps ahead of Europe. I think what he is doing is playing nice music for Russia to get them into the peace process. Of course, if you take it literally, it’s worrying, but I think it’s good positioning on his part and it’s part of the deal, because Trump is a born dealmaker.
So you think this is all part of the show, part of the way to make a deal?
It’s part of the dealmaking, yes. Trump is not an ordinary politician, he is a businessman. In the end, Trump will make a deal with Putin, because without America’s support Ukraine will collapse, and he is winning Putin over to negotiate and move from his current no-concessions stance.
What about the possibility of the U.S. withdrawing or scaling back its military presence in Europe?
Again, I think we should not be alarmed and be smarter about where Trump wants to end up. He needs peace with Russia, it was his election promise and he is in a hurry to make it happen. He is clearly not going to get it done in 24 hours, as he promised, but he wants to do it fast. At the same time, with the comments about troop withdrawals, he is also looking to get allies more involved, because the U.S. pays 70% of NATO’s bill. And here, Trump is right, because, in my view, Europe and the UK have to increase their military spending to 3.5% of their GDP. Poland is leading the way and already spends more than 4%, and we have to get the welfare state to come into the battle and put much more of its budget into defence.
With his statements, Trump, the dealmaker, has succeeded in attracting attention, which was his purpose. This is a means to an end: to move the peace negotiations forward. I don’t believe at all that he is betraying the West, has lost interest in Europe, or is going to pull out of NATO; you have to see everything he says in context: Trump is a dealmaker.
Could this situation be a turning point that will make Europe react?
Yes, it is a turning point. It is a shame that Europe has not spent enough on defence and has not done enough for Ukraine. I was an MEP when the EU and Ukraine signed a partnership agreement and I know the country well. In my opinion, the EU did not know how to handle this relationship and this ended up waking up the Russian bear. Of course, Ukraine is a free and independent nation and can choose the path it wants to follow, but European bureaucrats did not understand how to deal with this issue, something I denounced in the European Parliament. Of course, Europe’s mistakes do not justify the Russian invasion that has caused countless deaths on both sides. However this war must be stopped and it must be stopped now because, in the absence of enthusiastic NATO support and lack of manpower, Ukraine could collapse.
Russia has been stalled for many months, has suffered huge casualties, and is starting to have serious economic problems, as Trump also pointed out, but military power can be rebuilt. What security guarantees should be given to Ukraine to avoid a new war in a few years?
This is all part of the dealmaking with Putin. And in that sense, Vance spoke clearly and said that they could impose more sanctions and even send in troops. There are different options here. Clearly, the special military operation launched by Russia was a disaster and now even Russian territory is occupied by Ukraine. If Kyiv had fallen in the first few weeks, we would be looking at a different scenario, but it didn’t, and I think Putin needs a deal as much as Ukraine does; I don’t think he will risk the opposite.
Turning to the UK, how is it possible that so many outrages against freedom of speech and thought, as Vance pointed out in Munich, are taking place in the name of democracy?
I am afraid that while the European Union and the United States have turned to the Right, the opposite has happened in the United Kingdom. We had 14 years of Conservative Party rule and we had time to make the same turn, but we lost our way in many ways and that handed victory to a radical and incompetent Labour Left. It is a terrible government that shows its extremism in the way it pursues freedoms, and whose incompetence is so staggering that it has already lost three ministers in various scandals. Also, the debt has risen because their left-wing policies have scared off, and got rid of, at least 10,000 millionaires and 16 billionaires.
However, we still have the advantage that, thanks to Brexit, we are not part of the European Union and are not subject to its stifling regulation. Twenty years ago, the U.S. and the EU had the same GDP per capita, and now the U.S. has 50% more than the EU, and it’s going to be a lot more with Musk’s policies cutting unnecessary regulations, so the EU has a real challenge with this. At the same time, that challenge is an opportunity to learn from what is happening in America and start cutting regulations. It is a huge awakening for Europe in defence, in economics, and in policies that bring less taxes and regulations, and a smaller state.
You say that Europe has turned to the Right, can the same thing happen in the UK?
What is happening in the UK is that we have two big right-wing parties, the Conservatives and Reform UK, which have split the centre-right vote and each have around 25%, although Reform is ahead at the moment. Labour has a similar percentage, so if the Right is able to unite, it could come back with a Trump-like agenda and a big win. I don’t think Nigel Farage is interested in a deal, but he is interested in working together and in a non-aggression pact to change the situation ahead of the next election which, although scheduled for 2029, is likely to be brought forward to 2027 because of Labour’s economic mismanagement. This is a great opportunity for a radical centre-right government, perhaps through a coalition of Reform and the Conservatives.
