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2025 German Election Minute by Minute

Follow our minute by minute coverage on the German federal election to get the latest updates from our team in Berlin.
Follow our minute by minute coverage on the German federal election to get the latest updates from our team in Berlin.

More of the Same: German Grand Coalition Likely Despite Voters Fleeing to the Right

Photo: Michael Kappeler / POOL / AFP

Final election results

At 150 out of 299 districts counted:

  • CDU/CSU claims victory with 28.5%, predicted to take 208 seats, one of the poorest performances in recent decades
  • AfD solidifies as second-largest force in Bundestag with 20.6%, translating to 150 seats—doubling in their votes as the face of Germany’s populist revolt against the establishment.
  • Ruling socialist SPD suffers greatest defeat since 1880s, finishing third with 16,5% and 121 seats—still creeping into next government
  • Greens finish fourth with 11.8% (86 seats)
  • Far-left Die Linke doubles its share and surges to 8.7% (64 seats)
  • Both the liberal FDP and left-wing populist BSW fall under the parliamentary threshold

AfD leaders Alice Weidel and Tino Chrupalla predicted that a CDU-SPD-Greens coalition will probably fall much sooner than the next vote in 2029, in which case AfD chancellorship is “achievable” in just a few years. That is, unless the CDU gives in to “the will of the people, the will of Germany”—as Weidel said—and ditches the firewall for a strong, right-wing government with the AfD.

12:10 a.m.—AfD clearly ahead in all East German states

The AfD  is clearly ahead in all eastern German states. These are the numbers: 

  • Brandenburg : AfD received 32.5% of the second votes—with the CDU as the second strongest force with 18.1%.
  • Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania: When 2 of the 6 constituencies have been counted, AfD is well ahead of CDU with 41.4% and 17.6%.
  • Saxony: After 12 of 16 constituencies are counted, the AfD is at 38.8% and the CDU at 19.5%.
  • Saxony-Anhalt: When half the constituencies have been counted, the AfD received 36.9%t and CDU 19.5%.
  • Thuringia: With one of 8 constituencies left to count, the AfD has 37.8%, the CDU 18.7%.

12:00 a.m.—Possible coalitions (equal to or over 316 seats):

  • CDU + SPD + Greens (339-356 seats)—most likely outcome, although negotiations could be hindered by energy and climate. High risk of collapse in a few years due to political differences, especially given that its leftist majority will try to prevent the leading CDU from shifting more to the right, putting the center-right at odds with voter expectations. CSU (CDU’s sister party) is also strongly against the Greens, adding further to internal tensions.
  • CDU + AfD (305-339 seats)—strongest two-party format and the only right-wing option, but unlikely as CDU repeatedly ruled out working with AfD, even though Weidel is “ready” to negotiate to fulfill “the will of the people, the will of Germany.”
  • CDU + SPD + Die Linke (305-339 seats)—very unlikely, as CDU rejects the far-left for its radicalism.
  • CDU + SPD + FDP (306-331 seats)—depends on whether FDP will exceed 5%, which is unlikely. SPD has also fallen out with FDP, and would rather avoid working together again.
  • CDU + Greens + FDP (275-316 seats)—same problem with FDP, plus it’s difficult to negotiate due to ideological differences. Unlikely.

11:40 p.m.—Silence from Europe’s elite after CDU’s election win

European leaders have been notably silent after CDU leader Friedrich Merz’s victory. While his win was a significant moment for his party, it’s one of the CDU’s weakest performances in decades.

Despite the outcome, none of the leaders who met last week in Paris have commented on the results. The silence of Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, typically quick to congratulate victorious allies, is deafening, leading many to wonder if the poor showing will have wider implications for both the CDU and European politics as a whole.

10:55 p.m.— Greens worry about CSU barring them from the government

The Greens Chancellor candidate, Robert Habeck, described the party’s performance as “a respectable result, but not a great result.” According to the latest projections, the party secured 12.3% of the votes—2.4% less than in the previous elections.

“We are always ready to take responsibility,” Habeck said on German television channel ZDF when asked about it. However, the decision to include the Greens in the government formation is up to the conservatives. Something that, according to Habeck, is highly unlikely to happen. 

Habeck has pointed out that the Christian Social Union (CSU), the Bavarian sister party of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), has repeatedly rejected cooperation with the Greens. It is the Bavarians who can set the pace and, perhaps, force a shift to the right.

10:40 p.m—Almost half of voters support AfD’s stance on migration

46% of voters support the AfD’s stance on limiting immigration and refugees, according to a survey published by Tagesschau. Additionally, 55% believe the AfD better understands the growing sense of insecurity among many citizens. However, 74% feel the party does not sufficiently distance itself from “right-wing extremist positions.”

Among AfD voters, 99% agree with the party’s immigration policy, and 94% believe illegal immigrants should be deported as soon as possible. Only 18% favor a Germany with only ethnic Germans, and just 9% support deporting immigrants who have gained citizenship.

The party saw support grow across all age groups compared to 2021, with the most significant increase—13 percentage points—coming from the 18-24 age group.

10:10 p.m.—Merz hopes to have government agreement by Easter

CDU’s Friedrich Merz said on X that the country needs “a speedy and sensible formation of a government” that is “capable of acting internationally” and added he personally believes that can be achieved by Easter, two months from today.

10:00 p.m.—National conservative leaders from Europe congratulate AfD

Herbert Kickl (FPÖ, Austria): “The voters today in Germany have ensured a continuation of the patriotic turnaround and made the AfD the only political force clear number two, which stands for freedom, prosperity and sovereignty and puts the interests of its own people first.”

Tom Van Grieken (Vlaams Belang, Belgium): “Despite years of demonization and exclusion by the establishment, the AfD continues to grow. This result proves that more and more Germans have had enough of mass migration, rising bills and a policy that fails their own population.”

Geert Wilders (PVV, Netherlands) congratulated Alice Weidel and AfD and said, “The German Frans Timmermans has been thoroughly defeated—a major loss for SPD Chancellor Olaf Scholz.”

9:50 p.m.—36 constituencies finished counting, FDP and BSW without seats so far

Official results are slowly being published from all over the country, with 36 out of 299 electoral districts already submitting their final tallies. As it stands now, CDU is predicted to get 208 seats out of the 630 in the Bundestag, followed by AfD with 150, the socialist SPD with 120, the Greens with 88, and the far-left Linke with 63.

So far, it looks like both the liberal FDP and the left-wing populist BSW will fall out of parliament as they struggle to surpass the required 5% threshold. FDP’s 4.6% is unlikely to change much, but BSW is only one-tenth of a point below the limit, so there’s still a chance for them to mix up the final composition and weaken the establishment parties by snatching a few dozen seats in the last minute.

8:45 p.m—AfD largest party in Brandenburg

With nearly 95 percent of the votes counted, the AfD has emerged as the leading party in Brandenburg, securing over 33% of the vote. The SPD, once dominant in the state, trails the CDU, which claimed second place with just under 18%. The SPD received less than 15%. The BSW is in a tight race for fourth, currently at 10.6%, just behind Die Linke at 10.7%.

In 2024, Brandenburg, the eastern German state surrounding Berlin, also showed strong support for the AfD, which finished second in regional elections, just 3 percentage points behind the SPD.

8:35 p.m—Buxadé: “It’s going to be a great swindle”

Our reporter at the AfD election gathering spoke with Spanish VOX MEP Jorge Buxadé about how the CDU (currently leading in all exit polls) will form a coalition, and with whom:

They will make another pact with the socialists, just like what ÖVP did in Austria. It is going to be a great swindle: they will say one thing and then do another. It would be nice if the CDU would not spit on the millions of voters who have made AfD the second party in the country.

8:32 p.m.—AfD makes large gains in state with most foreigners

The AfD achieved significant success in North Rhine-Westphalia, the federal state with the highest number of foreigners (3.2 million). Weidel’s party secured 16.3% of the second votes, according to projections at 7:49 p.m. This marks a major increase from 7.3% in the 2021 elections. In contrast, the FDP saw a notable decline, with their share dropping from 11.4% in 2021 to just 4.7% now.

8:30 p.m.—Chrupalla: AfD chancellorship achievable before 2029

AfD’s co-leader Tino Chrupalla shared Weidel’s optimistic prognosis about the party’s future, saying it was “absolutely clear” that the next milestone was the chancellorship, “and we will achieve it.” The only question is whether AfD will have to wait until the next general elections in 2029, he said said, predicting a much shorter timeline. “I think that a government with election losers, which Friedrich Merz is now forging together, will probably last less time than some people think,” Chrupalla explained.

Marcel Fratzscher, the head of the German Institute for Economic Research agrees, insofar as any possible coalition format seems too divided and unstable to be viable for the long term. “The party political fragmentation could make a two-party coalition impossible,” Fratzscher said, adding that for a winner, CDU did remarkably poorly. The main political consequence will be further grounds for AfD, the senior economist believes, as the situation makes “urgently needed reforms largely impossible, the social polarization and the continuation of the strengthening of the AfD the inevitable result.”

8:25 p.m.—National minority party from Schleswig-Holstein could get parliamentary seat

The South Schleswig Voters’ Association (SSW), representing the Danish and Frisian minorities, could win a Bundestag seat. Founded in 1948, the party has long been in the Schleswig-Holstein state parliament and gained federal representation in 2021. Under a provision in the Federal Election Law, parties of national minorities are exempt from the five-percent threshold, allowing their second votes to be counted for seat allocation, even if they don’t meet the threshold.

8:00 p.m. Sunday—AfD achieves sweeping victory in its eastern strongholds Saxony and Thuringia

According to estimates based on preliminary results, 49% of citizens in Saxony gave their second vote (party list) to AfD. The second strongest force, the CDU, received 21.2%.

AfD has managed to strengthen significally in Saxony even since last year’s state election, when it got 32% of the votes.

After 90% of the polling stations have been counted, the AfD in Thuringia has 39.8% of the second votes. This means that the party of state leader Höcke has received twice as many votes as the second-placed CDU, which only received 18% of the votes and thus improved minimally compared to 2021.

7:45 p.m. Sunday—Weidel “ready” to enter government, predicts new elections if excluded

AfD leader Alice Weidel announced her party’s willingness to enter coalition negotiations with Merz’s CDU to fulfill what she called “the will of the people, the will of Germany.” AfD is “ready” to fix Germany, Weidel said, so the question is whether the CDU is as well.

However, as Merz previously ruled out the prospects of the right-wing ‘black-blue’ coalition, chances are that the next government will be an unstable, left-leaning coalition between three parties that have been at each others’ throat throughout the campaign—if they can even succeed in the negotiations. CDU’s Bavarian sister-party, CSU have strongly rejected the idea of joining with the Greens, so Merz could even have to face internal struggles if he wants to take the chancellery.

Weidel said Germans should have no illusions about the viability of a CDU-SPD-Green tripartite. The party leader predicted that if CDU continues to reject the people’s voice by holding onto the firewall against the AfD, there will be new elections in Germany “sooner than many believe.” And in those, AfD will come first, she warned.

Weidel is not the only one with this opinion. Stefan Herbert, a well-known business lawyer we interviewed yesterday expressed similar views, giving  the center-left government a maximum of two years before new elections are called due to the “ungovernability” of the country.

7:30 p.m. Sunday—More men than women chose the Right

According to exit polls, this is how how women voted in the federal election:

  • SPD: 18%
  • CDU-CSU: 27%
  • Greens: 13%
  • FDP: 4%
  • AfD: 17%
  • Left: 11%
  • BSW: 6%

The men, in turn, chose …

  • SPD: 15%
  • CDU-CSU: 29%
  • Greens: 12%
  • FDP: 6%
  • AfD: 23%
  • Left: 7%
  • BSW: 4%

(Based on data from the Research Group Elections/ZDF)

7 p.m. Sunday—Chancellor Scholz congratulates Merz, but doesn’t accept AfD’s results

Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) acknowledged his party’s “bitter” election results and congratulated CDU leader Friedrich Merz, the likely next chancellor, in his concession speech. However, Scholz also said “I cannot and will NEVER accept that a far-right party like the AfD achieved such a result.”

6:40 p.m. Sunday—Second poll confirms socialists’ worst result since 1887

A second exit poll published by ARD painted a slightly different picture, predicting that both the FDP and BSW will fall out of parliament, which would mean a significant boost in seats for the other five parties.

At the same time, the exit poll gave Chancellor Scholz’s ruling SPD 16.1%—the worst result in the German socialists’ history since 1887, when they won only 10% of the vote.

https://twitter.com/GeopoliticalCen/status/1893718693223235694

6:20 p.m. Sunday—Polls closed, highest voter turnout since 1987

The polls are now closed across Germany, with a record-high voter turnout of 83%. Exit polls published are in line with pre-election polls, with CDU as the largest party, some 8 percentage points ahead of AfD, and FDP and BSW look to be making it into the Bundestag by the skin of their teeth:

  • CDU: 28.5% (+4.3)
  • AfD: 20% (+9.6)
  • SPD: 16.5% (-9.2)
  • Greens: 12% (-2.7)
  • FDP: 5% (-6.4)
  • Die Linke: 9% (+4.1)
  • BSW: 5% (+5)

5:10 p.m. Sunday—Record high voter turnout

According to the Bundeswahlleitung, by 2 p.m., 52% of citizens had voted (not including postal votes). In 2021, the figure was 36.5% percent. Remember, though, that because of COVID restrictions, in 2021, a larger percentage of votes came by mail. In 2017, voter turnout by 2 p.m. was around 41 percent.

One region where voter turnout has dropped compared to 2021 is Schleswig-Holstein, the home of Green Party top candidate Robert Habeck: By 2 p.m.,  52.1% of eligible voters had cast their ballot. Four years ago, the figure was 55.5%.

2:30 p.m. Sunday—Massive surge in voter turnout in AfD strongholds

Voter turnout is now predicted to be much higher than in 2021 as the first counts of partial participation began coming in over the past two hours. In many states nearly half of eligible voters already cast their ballots by mid-day. 

Turnout is especially increased in states where AfD has a historically strong presence. In Thuringia—where AfD won its first state election last year—voter turnout has surged to 44.5% by noon, an almost 20-point increase compared to four years ago. Saxony-Anhalt sees a similar increase: over 37% already voted in the first four hours, compared to only 26% in 2021, while in Lower Saxony, the turnout surged from 36% to 44% in four years.

2:15 p.m. Sunday—BSW leader rages about “fake” exit polls

Sahra Wagenknecht, the leader of the anti-migration left-wing populist BSW condemned fake, premature exit polls circulating on the internet. She alleged that these posts are being spread to dissuade BSW supporters from voting for the party by painting it lost cause already. 

If this was the case, the establishment parties (CDU and SPD) were to gain most from such a stunt, as whether they would be able to form a two-party grand coalition might very well depend on whether the BSW reaches the required 5% threshold to enter the parliament.

https://twitter.com/SWagenknecht/status/1893636730219028934

2 p.m. Sunday—CDU leader says the German Left is “over”

Friedrich Merz, the leader of the center-right CDU-CSU alliance and Germany’s most likely next Chancellor, declared that left-wing politics was “over” in the country. “The Left is over. There is no left-wing majority and no left-wing politics in Germany,” Merz said.

While it’s true that based on projections, the socialist SPD, the Greens, and the far-left Die Linke would not be able to form a coalition of their own, this doesn’t mean none of them would end up in the next government. As we wrote below, the most likely scenarios include the CDU entering into a coalition with either the SPD, or both with the socialists and the greens. 

Both versions would mean that left-wing politics will remain influential, regardless of what Merz says. The only way his prediction would turn true would be by forming a right-wing coalition with AfD—as their cooperation is backed by a majority of Germans—which he consistently ruled out so far. Just like in Austria, it seems no matter how much people vote for the Right, their governments keep leaning to the Left.

1:30 p.m. Sunday—Elon Musk endorses AfD on X

True to his previous remarks, U.S. billionaire Elon Musk once again endorsed the AfD in a pinned post on his X profile. The simple message amassed over 24 million views so far.

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1893490130276491339

1 p.m. Sunday—German Interior Ministry says videos of AfD votes being shredded are Russian disinfo

Videos allegedly depicting postal workers destroying mail-in votes cast for AfD have been circulating in Germany for days and caused a growing backlash on social media. However, the German Interior Ministry shut down these claims by saying the ballots on the footage are fabricated, and the videos originate from a known Russian disinformation group.

https://twitter.com/BowesChay/status/1892595617387487528

12 p.m. (noon) Sunday—Radical feminists in Kyiv organize topless protest against AfD

A few members of the radical feminist group Femen organized a protest outside the German embassy in Kyiv, Ukraine against the conservative AfD. One protester dressed as Hitler stripped half-naked and spraypainted a swastika on a nearby wall, while her body paint declared AfD leader Alice Weidel as “Putin’s sl*t.” In Germany, this would be considered a hate crime on so many counts that prosecutors wouldn’t even know where to begin.

https://twitter.com/MyLordBebo/status/1893610701697978802

11 a.m. Sunday—Germans abroad complain about missing mail-in ballots

Some 215,000 Germans living outside the country successfully registered to vote before the official deadline, but many of them now complain that their postal ballots never arrived. According to media reports, voters across Europe and America have been raising the issue on social media for days, but received no answer from the government.

Those affected also include Germany’s ambassador to the UK, Miguel Berger, who vented his frustration on X. “No election documents arrived at my place in London!,” Berger said. “Deadlines were too tight and the procedures were too bureaucratic. Urgent reform is needed.”

While the law does stipulate that mail-in ballots should arrive in Germany by 6 p.m. on election day to be counted, the constitution treats mail-in voting in the diaspora as a choice of convenience, not a right. Therefore, mistakes in distribution do not constitute grounds for annulment or extension in the districts responsible for not sending out the documents in time, experts pointed out.

8 a.m. Sunday—Polling stations open across Germany

Polls are now open across the country’s 299 electoral districts and will remain so until 6 p.m. Roughly 60 million people are eligible to vote in today’s federal elections, with the average turnout in the past three decades being 77.5%. It remains to be seen whether the current highly polarized political atmosphere will prompt more Germans to make their voices heard despite the chilly weather on Sunday morning.

According to Germany’s hybrid electoral system, each voter has two ballots. They cast their first vote for their preferred local candidate in a single-member constituency where the first-past-the-post wins. The remaining 331 seats in the 630-member Bundestag are distributed proportionally according to the second votes cast on national party lists.

To get into parliament, a party must either reach the 5% threshold nationwide or win at least three electoral districts. The votes cast for parties below the threshold are redistributed equally among the others, meaning that the final strength of large parties will depend on how many smaller ones make it as well.

First national exit polls are expected to be published shortly after the polling stations close, while the official results could be made public as soon as 8 p.m.

7 p.m. Saturday—Last poll before election predicts chances for grand coalition a coin toss

The German Bild published the results of the last representative poll before the election, carried out on Thursday and Friday.

Friedrich Merz’s CDU/CSU alliance stands at 29.5%, slightly below the 30% psychological threshold. The AfD follows with 21%, over twice as strong as their last election four years ago with only 10.3%. Chancellor Scholz’s ruling socialists (SPD) are projected to be the biggest losers with only 15%, which represents a ten-point loss compared to 2021. The Robert Habeck-led Greens are measured at 12.5%, while the liberal junior coalition partner FDP below the parliamentary threshold at only 4.5%, a shocking seven-point decrease in four years. The surprise winners could be the far-left Die Linke, projected to reach 7.5% despite consistently polling below the required threshold for months until recently, and the left-wing populist BSW, hovering exactly at the 5% mark.

This means that whether there would be a two-party or three-party government could ultimately depend on the BSW. If Sarah Wagenknecht’s anti-migration leftists enter the Bundestag, the CDU and SPD will not have enough seats between them to form a black-red grand coalition alone. In that case, the third partner will likely be the Greens again, which would mean a goodbye to Germany’s energy revival.

4 p.m. Saturday—Antifascist protesters try to intimidate participants at AfD rally in East Berlin

Around a hundred people gathered at the local AfD headquarters for a pre-election rally in Lichtenberg, East Berlin, on Saturday afternoon. A few German flags were flying above the mostly elderly crowd who were listening to the speech of AfD’s deputy parliamentary leader, MP Beatrix von Storch. There was also heavy police presence in the area and for good reason: anti-AfD protesters outnumbered the participants by three to one, completely surrounding the little rally.

On one side, there was a peaceful but energetic protest organized by the far-left party Die Linke, whose members were relentlessly chanting “AfD raus!” (AfD out!). On the other, there was a huge antifascist crowd dressed mostly in black with their faces covered, flying two dozen red-black Antifa flags. They also brought what seemed to be a decommissioned police bus, outfitted with giant speakers and a DJ stand, blasting what we assumed were far-left rap lyrics.

People in both groups refused to give us their opinions about the elections when we approached them with a microphone. A few antifascists from the second group even tried to physically block our way through the street and started to push us around with their umbrellas. It could have easily escalated if the police hadn’t intervened at that point, granting us free passage and shielding us from the growing masked crowd.

2 p.m. Saturday—Interior Minister Condemns Islamist Stabbing at Holocaust Memorial

On Saturday, police sealed off Berlin’s famous Holocaust memorial site following a stabbing the night before that left a 30-year-old Spanish tourist severely wounded and now in a medically induced coma. The suspect was arrested shortly after but it took the authorities nearly a day to identify him as a 19-year-old Syrian asylum seeker because he did not speak German, and initially refused to cooperate.

The police subsequently established that there was a “religious motivation” behind the attack, and revealed that the suspect had been planning to kill Jewish people “for several weeks.” Apart from the weapon, he carried a prayer mat and a copy of the Quran in his backpack.

The attack is just the latest incident of the recent series of Islamist attacks in the country. The last of these took place just one week ago when a radicalized 24-year-old migrant drove his car into a crowd in Munich, wounding 36 and killing two, including a two-year-old child.

Just one day before the election, these attacks only add to the bitterness that Germans feel towards the Scholz government, whom they often blame for not protecting them. Although socialist (SPD) Interior Minister Nancy Faeser condemned the attack as an “abhorrent and brutal crime” and promised to “use all means” to deport violent offenders to their home countries, it’s unlikely that the remarks will boost the governing parties’ electoral chances at this point.

https://twitter.com/EuroConOfficial/status/1893315018810142978

Germany goes to the polls

On Sunday, German voters are heading to the polls in Europe’s most hotly anticipated elections this year. The stakes are higher than ever as the country arrived at a crossroads: will Germans vote for four more years of much of the same by switching from one establishment party to another or finally choose an alternative path for Germany?

Much like in other European countries, Germany’s anti-establishment forces saw a huge boost in popularity in recent months, with the right-wing populist AfD projected to snatch second place with over 20% of the final vote. AfD voters feel that no other party is willing to truly face the country’s biggest problem which they identify as a mass migration-induced rise in crime, high energy prices, deindustrialization due to rushed climate policies, and the decline of free speech and other basic liberties as authorities crack down on “hate speech” and “misinformation.”

For others, the main issue is no longer any specific political challenge, but preventing the rise of AfD as the election is presented in mainstream media as a 1933-like turning point when “right-wing extremism” can reach a critical threshold. Still, the disillusionment with Germany’s ‘traffic light’ coalitions is palpable, as Chancellor Scholz’s ruling socialists (SPD), liberals (FDP), and the Greens are predicted to suffer major setbacks. Instead, a plurality of voters is expected to support Friedrich Merz’s center-right CDU, which has undertaken a gradual but steady shift toward the right during the campaign, especially when it comes to migration and climate.

The biggest post-election question will be whether the German Bundestag’s infamous firewall against the AfD will hold. The CDU has ruled out any coalition with the national conservative party, but the extent to which the second-largest party could be excluded from decision-making will depend on the final composition of the parliament.

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