Britain and its Western allies are at a loss as to how best to deal with the Houthi rebels. Leaders issue written threats to the Iranian-backed rebels in Yemen, but are clearly less willing to authorise firm action when these are ignored and attacks on shipping continue. Indeed, the limited strikes to date are said to have done “little more than encourage the Houthis.”
After a January 3rd statement warning against further attacks went unheeded, Britain and the United States on Monday led a second round of airstrikes against the rebels. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak then went on to insist that “we are not seeking a confrontation.”
Britain’s diminished military could well mean that it is unable to offer much more than airstrikes, though the U.S. and other countries involved would be able to bring more to the table—if only they were willing.
Simon Diggins, a defence and security analyst and former Regular Army officer, told The European Conservative that there are “very good reasons” for this hesitation, pointing to the fact there has been “some form of conflict in Yemen for the past 50 years.” Leaders, he added, are clearly looking to avoid being “dragged” into these conflicts, which could risk “inviting retaliation against UK [and other] targets elsewhere.”
Experts are concerned by how protracted this tit-for-tat Houthi/Western conflict, where strikes invite further retaliation, could be. Sarah Phillips, a professor of Global Conflict and Development at The University of Sydney, told The Daily Telegraph:
The Houthis aren’t going to stop what they are doing because of strikes by the U.S. and the UK. I think the calculation was hit them and they will be deterred but that reflects a very simplistic, almost non-existent understanding of who the Houthis are and where they come from.
There is not much that is going to knock any wind out of the Houthis’ sails. Other than a 180 degree turn in how the U.S. and the UK are framing their support or are supporting Israel and its war on Gaza.
The Houthi movement claims that its assaults are aimed at stopping the offensive on Gaza following Hamas’ October 7th terror attacks. In keeping with an antisemitic outlook, they identify their targets as ‘Zionist,’ although in practice, they do not discriminate between the vessels they attack. This puts businesses—and individuals associated with them—at risk, while threatening to increase consumer costs on the international market.
While the West is concerned about conflict further escalating in the Middle East, it also knows the true cost of not responding to the rebel attacks. This has been summed up by Jennifer Parker, adjunct fellow in Naval Studies at the University of New South Wales in Canberra, who told the Telegraph: “The consequences of not responding and what that sends as a message to other terrorist organisations, but also other state actors that are trying to interfere with freedom of navigation—I think it would be dramatic.”
For now, Britain has stressed that it will “not hesitate” to unleash further airstrikes should attacks continue, but a more long-term plan has yet to emerge.
