The number of Catholics living in Northern Ireland has surpassed the total number of Protestants and other Christian denominations for the first time since the country was established more than a century ago, demographic figures from the 2021 census, released last week, have revealed.
The figures—published on Thursday, September 22—indicate that of Northern Ireland’s some 1.9 million inhabitants, 45.7% identify as Catholic or as having a Catholic background, compared to 43.5% who identify as Protestant or another Christian denomination, representing a notable shift from 2011 when 45% and 48% identified as Catholic and Protestant, respectively, the Irish Examiner reports.
The landmark shift comes a century after the partition of Ireland in 1921, which saw the government of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland split Ireland into two self-governing polities. At the time, the British drew up the borders of Northern Ireland, which encompass six northeastern counties, in such a way so as to assure the demographic dominance of the region’s unionist, largely Protestant population. Protestants at that point made up two-thirds of Northern Ireland’s population, while Catholics comprised the remaining one-third.
Despite having been expected for some time, the news undoubtedly comes as a disappointment to the unionists, who have previously used their majority as grounds to preserve Northern Ireland’s status as a part of the United Kingdom.
As expected, in the wake of the historic shift, Sinn Fein, the largest party in both the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland, has called for the groundwork to be laid for an Irish reunification referendum—a vote that could very well see two states brought together under a single government.
Sinn Fein MP John Finucane, responding to the demographic tilt, which he called “irreversible,” said: “The Irish government should establish a Citizens’ Assembly to plan for the possibility of a unity referendum.”
Previously, calls for Northern Ireland to leave the United Kingdom and reunify with the Republic of Ireland precipitated what is now referred to as The Troubles, a violent period from the late 1960s to 1998 in which some 3,500 people were killed during a low-intensity sectarian conflict.
That conflict concluded with the Good Friday Agreement of 1998, also known as the Belfast Agreement, which sought to forge a peaceful balance of power between the Catholics and Protestants.
Under the agreement’s terms, the constitutional status of Northern Ireland can only be changed with the people’s consent. “If at any time it appears likely to him that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom,” the peace deal reads, “the Northern Ireland secretary can call for a referendum.”
