The centre-right ruling Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) won its fourth parliamentary elections in a row on Wednesday, April 17th, but it will likely have to rely on the conservative, patriotic Homeland Movement to form a government. The EU and NATO member Croatia is moving further to the Right, according to Croatian journalist Goran Andrijanić, who says patriotic forces are gaining in strength not only in the opposition but also within the ruling HDZ party.
Prime Minister Andrej Plenković’s HDZ party—a member of the centre-right-liberal European People’s Party—gained 34% of the votes and 61 seats of the 151 seats available in parliament, according to almost final results published on Thursday. This is not enough for the party to secure a majority, and it will have to rely not only on the backing of the ethnic minority candidates (to whom eight seats are allocated), but also one other party.
This could be the right-wing nationalist Homeland Movement, which came third, increasing its number of seats by two to 14. “I hope that we shall tailor the fate of Croatia in the days ahead,” party leader Ivan Penava said, adding the party’s main condition is not to join a government that would include the Serb minority party (3 seats), or the green Možemo party (10).
Speaking to The European Conservative after the elections, reelected MP Stjepo Bartulica of the Homeland Movement said he expects coalition talks between HDZ and his party to begin next week, because “there is no realistic possibility of a new majority without our support.” He added:
We will have specific demands about new policies on how we would like to see Croatia develop in the future. One of these points is less government interference in the economy. When you look at foreign policy in the EU, we will be asking for much more sovereigntist policies, which means not following the Brussels line. We are not interested in the green agenda, and we’re supporting the farmers’ movement.
Stjepo Bartulica describes PM Andrej Plenković as a “Euro-enthusiast,” someone who is very close to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, and whose party clearly belongs to the moderates within the European People’s Party. The MP added:
Plenković’s main principles are to follow the EU line. He’s convinced that these so-called European values are in the interests of Croatia. This is where we disagree. We are not willing to sacrifice Croatia’s interests on the altar of Brussels’ green agenda, climate ideology or gender ideology agenda. We’re very much opposed to this and I expect difficult negotiations.
Another possible coalition ally could be the Eurosceptic-conservative alliance of The Bridge party and the Croatian Sovereignists party, who gained 11 seats. Their leader, Božo Petrov, however, ruled out working with the HDZ as they had campaigned for the ruling party to be “sent into opposition.”
HDZ has dominated Croatian politics since the country gained independence from Yugoslavia in 1991, and its current stint in power dates back to 2016. It took credit for Croatia entering the EU’s Schengen area and the euro zone last year and denied opposition allegations of authoritarianism and corruption. Andrej Plenković said the HDZ could guarantee Croatia’s stability in a challenging geopolitical environment:
The global security situation has never been more tense and more dangerous … so we need to have very responsible people running Croatia in the next four years.
The party’s main political opponent, the Social Democratic Party, came second with 25.4% of the votes and 42 seats. Previous prime minister and current president of the country Zoran Milanović announced his surprise bid for prime minister and openly campaigned for the party, despite the constitutional court prohibiting him from doing so. Milanović has criticised the EU’s military backing for Ukraine and opposed the training of Ukrainian soldiers in Croatia. He argued he was protecting Croatian interests by preventing the country from being “dragged into war.”
Despite no major visible changes occurring in the Croatian political scene, journalist Goran Andrijanić believes the country is significantly moving to the Right. Speaking to The European Conservative, he said the Homeland Movement, a strongly patriotic, anti-immigration party, which supports traditional values and is critical of the Brussels elite and gender ideology, will likely join in a coalition with the HDZ, and influence the direction of the government.
The Bridge/Sovereigntists also had a strong showing at the election and they, too, are to the right of HDZ on the political spectrum. But the governing party itself is going through a transformation, according to Goran Andrijanić, who says Defence Minister Ivan Anušić, who represents the more conservative faction of the HDZ, is even more popular within the party than the prime minister.
