The Czech Republic is headed for elections this weekend in the wake of one of the most devastating floods in recent decades. As Central Europe grapples with Storm Boris and the ensuing heavy winds, rain, and floods that have also swept across parts of the Czech Republic, its citizens will vote on Friday and Saturday, September 20-21, to elect the members of the regional councils as well as a third of the members of the Czech Senate.
Though the elections themselves are focused mainly on regional and local issues, and may not be politically as relevant as the European elections that were held in June, they do provide an insight into how the parties are faring a year before national elections are set to take place.
According to the most recent polls, only around a third of the voters intend to vote for one of the five parties that make up the current government, which has been in power since 2021. That is a decrease of about ten percentage points compared to their results three years ago, signalling public distrust in the country’s leadership.
The government consists of Prime Minister Petr Fiala’s conservative Civic Democratic Party (ODS), its two centre-right-liberal allies—who together form the Together (Spolu) alliance—as well as the centrist Mayors and Independents Party, and the leftist Pirate Party.
As Roman Joch, Executive Director of the Czech conservative think tank the Civic Institute, told The European Conservative:
Petr Fiala is very unpopular. People on the Left consider him to be too far on the Right, and too insensitive to peoples’ worries. Traditional conservative voters, however, think he is too left-wing. All the other four parties in the coalition are to the Left of his party, and some say Fiala has conceded too much to them. They believe he has presided over the ‘Merkelisation’ of ODS, meaning he has converted the party into a centre-left party. There are rumours that a new centre-right party will emerge next year, and if it does, it will be a serious political contender.
Czechs are mainly dissatisfied with the government’s handling of inflation, rising living costs, energy price regulations, and poor public communication, according to a survey conducted in July.
According to Roman Joch, “Fiala has raised taxes for all. Poorer people think he doesn’t care about them. There is also a consensus that the European Green Deal was a big mistake, which has damaged the economy and the Czech car industry.”
The government already received a warning at the European elections, as its political rivals got twelve seats in the European Parliament, while the government parties got nine. The cabinet’s main rival is the sovereigntist-nationalist ANO movement—led by former prime minister Andrej Babiš—which has attacked the government for being soft on migration and reluctant to counter the EU’s dictates on radical green policies.
Roman Joch said,
On economic and welfare issues Babiš has moved to the Left, on cultural and social issues he is more conservative. For example, he is against the Istanbul Convention because it is progressive, and his voters don’t like gender ideology. He is tough on migration, too. The majority of Czechs don’t want migration from Africa and the Middle East.
Two anti-establishment, EU-critical parties—the right-wing Oath and Motorists, and the left-wing Enough!—also performed strongly in June, each receiving around ten percent of the votes and two seats each in the European Parliament.
According to the latest surveys, ANO alone is polling at 32%, meaning it has about the same vote share as all the five government parties together. In addition, the Oath and Motorists are polling at 10%, the right-wing, anti-immigration SPD party is at 8%, while Enough! is at 5%.
The poll numbers may of course not be completely reflected in the election results this weekend as mainly local issues and the floods will be on voters’ minds. An effective response to the natural disaster could influence the outcome of some regional elections, giving an edge to the current leaders in those areas.The names of the candidates running for seats in the regional councils will likely be more important to voters than their party affiliations.
The real test will come in the autumn of next year.
