At the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, SPIEF—a showcase for Russia’s economy to investors, and long considered its answer to WEF’s Davos—Russian President Vladimir Putin delivered the keynote address on Friday, June 16th.
While the event boasted a less extensive roster of attendees than previous editions (following the West’s boycott of Russia), confidence nonetheless appeared high.
Four days of talks had been scheduled to detail how Russia sees its economic development post its break with the West.
Before the Russo-Ukraine war, the annual economic forum held in St. Petersburg was a magnet for politicians and investors from all corners of the world. Particularly noteworthy this year was the presence of a significant Middle Eastern delegation, with Saudi Arabia among them—historically an important U.S. ally in that region.
Russia used the forum to display its break with much, if not most, of the collective West. Earlier this month, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov announced that Western journalists would—for the first time since its founding in 1997—be banned from the event.
“Yes, indeed. It was decided not to accredit media outlets from unfriendly countries to the SPIEF this time,” Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov then said. “Unfriendly countries” is a definition used by Moscow to describe those who have sanctioned it over the war in Ukraine.
In his welcome address on the website, Putin mentioned the event’s “rich and substantive agenda” which would cover “a broad range of relevant and significant issues.” While he did not directly refer to the ongoing war, he noted the “profound tectonic shifts that are gaining momentum today.”
Given that Putin would speak at the forum, access to mobile internet had been prohibited—part of various electronic warfare measures to prevent Ukrainian drone attacks.
In his hour-long speech and follow-up Q&A, the Russian leader frequently took swipes at the West. He noted that Russia’s trade with countries whose leaders had refused to give in to
coarse outside pressure, while prioritizing their own national interests rather than those of others, increased not just by several dozen percent but by many times, and that it was continuing to grow.
This, he added,
proves yet again that common sense, business initiative, and objective market forces outweigh politics. This also demonstrates that this ugly and de-facto neo-colonial international system no longer works, while the multipolar world order is, on the contrary, becoming stronger.
According to Putin, “global changes now underway in all spheres of society are cardinal, profound and irreversible,” a situation in which Russia would transition to “a qualitatively new level of development—a sovereign economy that not only responds to market changes and takes into account demand, but also creates this demand.”
This strategy, chosen by both the state and Russian businesses, has “proved its worth,” he added, noting that in April 2023, Russia’s GDP increased by 3.3% (annualized), and, based on the IMF’s forecast of 0.7%, is expected to add over 1% by the end of that year.
He went on to say that he agreed with Russian analysts who argued that the Russian economy would achieve an even higher growth rate of about 1.5%, or maybe even 2%. This would enable Russia to “retain its place among the world’s leading economies.”
When asked by the moderator if Russia was actively promoting the de-dollarization of the international financial system, Putin replied, We have never been aiming to de-dollarize the Russian economy, let alone to de-dollarize the global economy or influence that process. We are not setting such goals now. The impact of any currency on the global economy directly depends on the national economic potential of the issuer of that currency.
On the conflict in Ukraine and the ongoing counteroffensive, Putin observed that Kyiv would soon “have to stop using its own hardware. There will be nothing left. Everything they are fighting with and everything they are using is being brought in from the outside.”
Indeed, he added, “they have sustained very heavy losses—even more than one to ten compared to the Russian army. This is a fact. As for hardware, every day they are losing more and more hardware.”
When asked whether he considered NATO to be a participant in the war in Ukraine, Putin replied it was becoming ever more involved. “There are deliveries of military hardware, heavy equipment. Now they are considering supplies of aircraft as well …The tanks are burning; several tanks have been destroyed … The F-16s [which some NATO members are considering donating to Ukraine] will be burning too, no doubt about it.”
Russia would however not launch strikes if these were stationed on NATO territory. “If they are located at air bases outside Ukraine and are used in hostilities, we will have to think about how and where we can hit the resources that are used against us in the hostilities,” Putin said, warning there however was “serious danger of NATO’s further involvement in this armed conflict.”
On the use of nuclear weapons, Putin said that, for Russia, it is theoretically possible “if there is a threat to our territorial integrity, independence and sovereignty, an existential threat to the Russian state.” Moscow saw at present, however, “no need” to use them.
We have more such nuclear weapons than NATO countries. They know about it and never stop trying to persuade us to start nuclear reduction talks. Like hell we will, right? It is our competitive advantage.”
In the coming weeks, the EU is expected to unveil its 11th package of sanctions against Russia, which would focus on tightening loopholes that allow Moscow to export fossil fuels to India, which it then sells back to the EU in the form of refined products.
India’s oil imports from Russia have gone from 1.7 million barrels per month in January 2022 to 63.3 million barrels per month in April 2023.
