A near-majority of Dutch voters would prefer a conservative coalition government that includes Geert Wilders’ eurosceptic PVV, according to a survey of 25,000 voters by EenVandaag.
The prospect of a right-wing coalition, composed of the center-right VVD, the anti-establishment upstart NSC, the agrarian populist BBB, and the eurosceptic nationalist PVV, is finding favor with 48% of voters, the survey said. The survey polled only VVD, NSC, and BBB voters.
The survey comes as the nation, faced with several crises (among which mass migration, housing, the cost of living, and the nitrogen reduction crisis) is gearing up for snap parliamentary elections on November 22nd, which predict—if current polling trends are to be believed—a shaking up for the Dutch political landscape.
Having failed to come to an agreement on how to handle the influx of migrants, the previous coalition government collapsed on July 7th 2023.
According to the survey, 70% of voters who back outgoing Prime Minister Mark Rutte’s VVD party would accept cooperation with Geert Wilders’ PVV party, despite being historically oppsed to the idea. The PVV is known for its tough stance on (particularly Muslim) migration and integration.
Dilan Yeşilgöz, taking Rutte’s place as lead candidate for the VVD following his resignation, has said she is “not ruling out any party or voter,” opening up the possibility of linking up with the PVV.
Meanwhile, a large majority of her voters (57%) think cooperation between the two parties in the next cabinet would be fruitful.
A left-wing coalition, composed of GroenLinks-PvdA, Partij voor de Dieren, SP, D66, ChristenUnie and NSC (founded only last August and already leading the polls), barely gets 32% support from all voters.
A minority government of NSC, VVD and GroenLinks-PvdA proves even less appealing: 28% of those surveyed supported such a cabinet. A broad left coalition, also with NSC, also shows little chance of succeeding due to resistance in NSC ranks.
Omtzigt as kingmaker?
All eyes are on Pieter Omtzigt, however. With two decades of political experience under his belt, the popular NSC leader is likely to play a kingmaker role during the upcoming coalition negotiations.
On Monday, November 6th, during a panel discussion at the University of Twente, he said he was considering “a center-right minority cabinet.”
Along with his own party, he named VVD, his own former party CDA, the BBB, the conservative Calvinist SGP, and the conservative-liberal JA21 as potential coalition partners, but said to be open to other possibilities.
On X, formerly Twitter, he said his party would wait for the election results after which it would determine which coalition could deliver on most of its program, the key points of which are “good governance, livelihood security, a curb on migration and housing.”
Given the fragmentation commonly observed in Dutch politics, Omtzigt is a strong advocate of a minority cabinet, which is formed when a political party or coalition of parties does not have a majority of overall seats in the legislature.
In this system, legislation can only be passed with the support of enough other members of the House of Representatives to provide a majority, thereby granting the legislature more power.
PVV precluded from governing
With Omtzigt seemingly excluding the PVV—the party, polling in fourth place, was not named by Omtzigt as a potential partner during his talk—the formation of a majority cabinet is unlikely.
In the past, Omtzigt has repeatedly stated that he is unwilling to enter into a coalition with the party, finding it strays too far from the rule of law concerning asylum and immigration policy.
In a September interview with De Telegraaf, Wilders had discussed his party’s new election program, in which its approach to these issues had been softened. While the party still seeks an asylum freeze, plans to establish a separate ‘ministry of remigration and de-Islamization’ have been shelved.
The passage “Islam is not a religion, but a totalitarian ideology” from the previous program had also been scrapped, and now reads: “We want less Islam in the Netherlands and will achieve this through less non-Western immigration and a total ban on the granting of asylum requests.”
Omtzigt’s latest snub has not soured Geert Wilders’ mood however, since support for his party, which after 11 years of being in the opposition is hungry for a chance to serve in a cabinet, is “growing.”
He added that only with the PVV, a “solid asylum and immigration policy” [a core issue during these elections] would be possible, he said.
Omtzigt’s stated preference however also means that GroenLinks-PvdA, currently polling in third place, would be sidelined.
Timmermans tones down green agenda
It is an ominous sign for GroenLinks-PvdA’s lead candidate—and aspiring prime minister—Frans Timmermans. Last summer, the EU’s former climate change and environment policy chief bade farewell to Brussels to lead the newly-merged parties in the elections.
Securing victory there, or so was the hope, would counter a growing agrarian populist movement (as exemplified by the BBB party’s huge success in last March’s regional elections), ensuring the Netherlands would be meeting its commitments to climate and environmental policy, being based on EU rules.
Sensing such a victory might not be so easy to obtain, Timmermans, floating the idea of a potential coalition which would include the NSC, went as far as showing willingness to reconsider the nation’s controversial 2030 deadline to cut nitrogen emissions in half—a pillar of its election programme.
While his party enjoys broad support among the Left, coalitions in which his party would feature are widely disapproved of by VVD, NSC, and BBB voters, according to the survey.
Having published its election program only last month, given that the NSC is in the driver’s seat, speculation is rife on whether Omtzigt himself would be content serving as a mere kingmaker, or lay claim to the premiership.
After previous intimations that as MP he would be most effective in making his political agenda come to fruition, in recent days Omtzigt—despite some reservations (whether sincere or not)—appeared to be warming to the idea. When his moment does come, he has but to reach out and seize it, or so it seems.
The Dutch elections are set to take place on November 22nd.