Finnish political parties are in the process of deciding on candidates for the largely ceremonial role of president, as social democratic leader and former prime minister Sanna Marin surprised the country by voicing support for current EU International Partnerships Commissioner, Jutta Urpilainen.
The former leader of the social democrats between 2008 and 2014, Urpilainen served as finance minister in a coalition government with the centre right National Coalition Party. Urpilainen assumed her current role in the Commission in 2019 and is responsible for running the EU’s foreign aid budget.
The Finnish Social Democrats are currently in transition. Following poor election results, Marin resigned from her post, with the party expected to select a new leader at its annual congress in September. Marin has used her influence as party leader to start the ball rolling on the selection of a presidential candidate for the social democrats amid concern that time is running out to make a decision.
Finns will go to the polls next year on the 28th of January for the first round of voting to decide on a new president. The incumbent, Sauli Niinistö, is set to complete his second six-year term in 2024.
Despite its ceremonial nature, the Finnish president has a particular significance in setting Finnish foreign policy.
Urpilainen has stated that she will not confirm her candidacy until November 2023 but is strongly expected to say yes according to reports in the Finnish press.
Among the candidates already declared are former conservative prime minister Alexander Stubb; retired Central Bank chief Olli Rehn (aligned with the Centre Party); ex-Finnish foreign minister and Green politician, Pekka Haavisto, as well as multiple independents.
The populist Finns Party has opted for the former speaker of the Finnish Parliament, Jussi Halla-aho, as opinion polls show the Green Party’s Haavisto with an early lead. Despite not yet declaring, Urpilainen has just 2% of voter preference.
Finland is currently governed by a fractious four-party coalition composed of the conservative National Coalition Party, the populist Finns Party, the Christian Democrats, and a party representing the country’s Swedish-speaking minority (RFK), after voters turned against the country’s ruling social democrats due to rising inflation and fiscal woes.
This coalition has been beset by problems around past statements by Finns Party ministers, which has led the liberal RFK to rethink joining a coalition with the Finns Party.
To become a candidate, Urpilainen would likely have to resign from her Commission job, following in the footsteps of European Commission Vice-President Frans Timmermans, who left his post to lead a Green-Left coalition against insurgent agrarian populists in the Netherlands.
