The big day’s finally here. Roughly four hundred million Europeans are given the chance to say what kind of Europe they want to see in the next five years. Voters in 27 member states are electing 720 members of the European Parliament, who in turn will also influence the next College of Commissioners and the European Commission President.
We’ll stay with you all night with live updates as the results come in from each country. We’ll be just as excited as you are to see tonight’s winners and losers and whether the expected right-wing shift happens, as well as to theorize together about what all of this will mean for the future of Europe.
Itinerary: National exit polls are usually published as the ballots close, but you can expect the Parliament’s first EU-wide estimates to come in at around 8:30 p.m. (CET). The first provisional results will be announced once every country finishes voting at around 11 p.m., followed by a final update at 1 a.m.
- Liberals and Greens the Biggest Losers EU-Wide
- France: Le Pen Hammers Macron
- Germany’s Exit Polls: Populist AfD Projected to Be Country’s Second Biggest Party
- Right-Wing FPÖ Strongest Force in Austria
12:12 a.m.—Victory for Orbán in Hungary, former Fidesz Man Comes Second
Just after midnight, with 62.7% of the vote counted, Hungarian conservative ruling party Fidesz has continued its run of election victories, dating back to 2009—including national, local and European elections—by winning this year’s EU elections with 43% of the votes. This means 11 seats for PM Viktor Orbán’s party in the European Parliament. Recently formed Tisza Party came in a surprise second with 30% and 7 seats. The party was established by Péter Magyar, a disgruntled former Fidesz official and ex-husband of former Justice Minister Judit Varga, who has managed to become the main opposition force within a matter of months, attracting large crowds at his rallies.
12:04 a.m.—Czechia: Surprising Results As Former PM Babiš Wins
Former Prime Minister Andrej Babiš’ opposition ANO party has won the European elections in the Czech Republic, according to final results published on Sunday night. The party, which currently sits in the liberal Renew group in the European Parliament (EP), but could switch to a group on the Right, won 26% of the votes, meaning it will receive 7 seats in the EP. The current coalition government’s largest alliance, centre-right SPOLU, got 22% (6 seats). Two new, recently formed alliances, right-wing Přísaha a Motoristé and left-wing eurosceptic Enough surprised the political elites by each getting 10% of the votes, translating to 2 seats each.
11:39 p.m.—Italy: Meloni Solid As Lega Crashes
The shine doesn’t appear to be wearing off Giorgia Meloni—her Fratelli d’Italia party is showing 26-30% in exit polls, exceeding what was needed to shore up her dominance of Italian politics and the Right.
Meanwhile, her right-wing coalition partner Matteo Salvini’s Lega’s share of the vote is projected to crash to 8-10%, down from 34.3% in the previous EU election.
The Partito Democratico (PD, S&D) are projected to hold steady at 21-25% of the vote, about the same as in 2019.
11:01 p.m.—Belgium: Prime Minister Resignation Sets Stage for Months of Coalition Chaos
A poor showing for his Flemish liberal party OpenVld has spurred the resignation of Belgian PM Alexander De Croo after exit polls suggest his party barely reached 5% in the national elections.
Belgium looks like it is on the cusp of months of coalition chaos with a rise for Flemish nationalists, as well as for the extreme left, altering the electoral calculus.
De Croo is expected to remain as interim prime minister for the foreseeable future—until the next government is formed.
10:55—European Parliament:
10:22 p.m.—Von der Leyen Triumphant—but Nobody Voted for Her
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, the lead candidate for the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP) triumphantly declared in Brussels that ”no majority can be formed without the EPP.” This comes after exit polls show that the EPP is set to remain the largest group within the European Parliament.
“We are the strongest party. We are the anchors of stability and voters acknowledge our leadership in the last five years,” she said, adding that she had sensed ”a lot of confidence and trust” in the EPP and the European Union during her re-election campaign.
Though the EPP may well be the largest group and her words triumphant—she even thanked her campaign team—nobody actually voted for von der Leyen. In addition, her re-election as Commission president is not at all that sure. Neither European voters, nor the Parliament nominates the Commission president; it is the task of the European Council, i.e., the heads of member states’ governments. Only after this nomination does the Parliament weigh in on the nominee. Five years ago, Manfred Weber was the EPP’s lead candidate, but prime ministers chose von der Leyen—someone who did not feature in the European campaign at all—as the head of the Commission. This time around, many member states are rumoured to be unhappy with von der Leyen and could very well opt to go with someone else.
10:17 p.m.—Splintered Political Landscape in Denmark
A total of ten Danish parties are predicted to get seats in the European Parliament following the EU elections, a sign of how splintered the political landscape is.
Forces on the left seem to be faring a bit better, according to exit polls published on Sunday night. In a break with general European trend, the Green Left party is set to get 3 seats of the 15 allocated to the Scandinavian country, one seat more than five years ago. The governing Social Democrats, who have overseen one of the toughest migration policies in Europe, are on course to get 3 seats, too. In third place is the centrist-liberal Venstre party with two seats. The remaining seven seats go to seven different parties.
9:59 p.m.—Romanian Nationalists Second Amid Signature Forging Scandal
The Romanian nationalist AUR party, founded right after the last EU elections, is predicted to finish with 14% of the vote, second only to the grand coalition of the center-left (PSD) and center-right (PNL), which is predicted to get 54% for their shared list.
Still, AUR’s results are somewhat poorer than expected based on opinion polls, probably due to the ongoing signature forging scandal of the party leader, George Simion, allegations of which became public just days before the EU elections.
AUR is trying to add its 4 seats to the national conservative, pro-NATO ECR, but it might be problematic given the party’s strong anti-Ukraine rhetoric. The AUR last March submitted a bill aiming to annex five Ukrainian territories.
9:57 p.m.—Poland: Socialists Plummet As Confederation Becomes Third Largest Party
A projected eight-seat loss from 27 to 19 MEPs for conservative Polish Law and Justice’s (PiS) party has been partially offset by a sudden rise for upstart nationalist party Confederation with six seats predicted. Donald Tusk’s Civic Platform set to receive 34% of the vote with 21 seats.
The result diminishes PiS’s hold over the conservative ECR faction in the EU Parliament but energises the potential for a new identitarian group including Confederation and the AfD, as well as incentivising co-operation between PiS and the young nationalist party.
The big loser of the night appears to be the leftist Lewica as the centrist TD bloc failed to repeat their results from last year’s national elections.
9:55 p.m.—Sweden: Shock Underperformance Puts Sweden Democrats on Back Foot
Despite strong recent polling the Sweden Democrats found themselves in an unexpected fourth place, only projected to receive 13.9% of the vote, even being surpassed by the Green Party. As in neighbouring Denmark, the country’s voting pattern is bucking the EU trend of declining support for green parties.
The right-wing populist party is not expected to lose seats despite the results.
9:26 p.m.—Macron To Call Early Elections After Heavy Defeat
French President Emmanuel Macron has announced that he will dissolve the national parliament and call snap elections. The decision follows his party’s poor result in the European Elections: Renaissance will only receive 15.2% of the votes according to exit polls, while Marine Le Pen’s nationalist National Rally is likely taking just under 32% of the vote.
Macron said this is not a good result for the parties that “defend Europe,” and added that he would call early elections, which will take place on June 30th and July 7th. Jordan Bardella, the head of the National Rally had already urged the president earlier this evening to dissolve parliament. “The president cannot remain deaf to the message given by the French,” he said.
9:20 p.m.—Spanish Voters Switch Allegiances and Turn to Right
The Spanish centre-right People’s Party (PP) is predicted to defeat the governing Socialists (PSOE) in the European elections. According to exit polls, PP won 34.5% of the votes (up from 20% in 2019) and right-wing, anti-immigration VOX which received 6% in 2019, could receive 10.5% of the votes this time around. Together, the right and centre-right in Spain could total 45% of the vote. While the Socialists got 33% of the vote in 2019, this year they are only predicted to get 29%. Hard-left Sumar is projected to get 6%, a 4-point decrease.
9:11 p.m.—Liberals and Greens the Biggest Losers EU-Wide
The first official EU-wide estimates from the European Parliament have been published and it’s the march of the non-aligned, who are predicted to grow from 49 to over a hundred members after tonight. Although not for long, as many will enter a group right away, and the majority (including heavyweights like AfD and Fidesz) will strengthen the national conservative blocs. No doubt the biggest winners will be ECR and ID—once they figure out which new party goes where.
Without counting party-shifting group memberships, the biggest losers will be the liberal Renew group and the European Greens, who are looking to lose about 20 seats each. Keep in mind that their loss might also grow in the coming weeks, especially Renew’s, as the Macron-led group is threatening to suspend Mark Rutte’s VVD for entering into coalition with Geert Wilders, while the former Czech PM Andrej Babis’ ANO party (among others) is considering jumping ship and join one of the conservative groups instead.
For now, the ‘Ursula coalition’ (EPP-S&D-Renew) has the numbers to back von der Leyen if she gets nominated again. But given that the same parties barely managed to do so last time with far more MEPs after counting deserters, von der Leyen might be forced to look for allies on Right instead.
On the other hand, a right-wing grand coalition is also possible for the first time between EPP, ECR, ID, and the right-wing non-aligned. It’s also worth pointing out that national conservatives (from both groups and beyond) could easily merge into a supergroup that would overtake the socialist S&D and emerge as the second largest bloc in Brussels.
8:49 p.m.—Germany: Young People Voting AfD
According to German media, 17% of young voters (aged 16-24) voted for the anti-immigration AfD party in the EU elections, a 10 point increase compared to five years ago. The only other party to have such a high share of the young voters is the centre-right CDU/CSU alliance.
This was the first election in which 16- and 17-year-olds could vote in Germany, and despite hoping to attract the youth vote, only 11% voted for the Greens and just 9% for the Social Democrats. AfD co-chairman Tino Chrupalla described his party’s results as “historic,” adding that they will boost the AfD before three regional elections in the eastern states of the country in the autumn. AfD is predicted to finish second at 16%, a 5-point increase compared to the elections in 2019.
8:31 p.m.—France: Le Pen Hammers Macron
The nationalist RN looks like it’s walloped French President Emmanuel Macron’s Renaissance, taking just under 32% of the vote. Their predicted win—which would be the best result for the party ever in an EU election—cements Le Pen’s hegemony over the European Right within the EU Parliament after the schism with AfD.
So great is Le Pen’s anticipated triumph that RN scored higher than Macron and the socialists combined—set to increase its MEP numbers from 23 to 31.
More nuanced news for Zemmour and his Reconquête who received 4 seats in the EP, almost beating the deflated French Green Party (who will go from 13 to 5 seats). The real loser will likely be Macron’s Renew group who will probably shed a third of their vote share.
8:19 p.m.—Right-Wing Populists Make Massive Gains in Bulgaria
The right-wing populist, anti-NATO Revival (V) Party is expected to finish in third place, with 14.8% according to the first exit polls, just one percent below the main centrist three-party opposition group, both looking at 3 seats in the Parliament.
The EPP-member center-right ruling coalition is predicted to win the race with six seats, but it’s worth noting that no party made as massive gains compared to 2019 as Revival, which only received 1% last time.
Revival has recently hit the headlines by pitching a new right-wing group in the European Parliament to like-minded newcomers and even the now-homeless AfD, without whom it would be practically impossible to reach the required threshold. AfD would rather leverage its projected 17 seats to rejoin the ID, but leading the group of new kids might still be a good Plan B if that’s not an option.
8:13 p.m.—Belgium: Centre-Right Appears to Nudge Out Vlaams Belang in Flanders
With two-thirds of the votes counted in Flanders, nationalist Vlaams Belang has gained almost three percentage points. Centre-right N-VA has increased by 1.5 percentage points, and is still ahead of VB. The big losers of the election so far appear to be the Dutch socialist Vooruit who saw their vote share chipped away by the more radical Marxist-Leninist PVDA as their Francophone branch PTB does similar in Wallonia.
Belgian voting stations are reporting low-level chaos caused by the lowering of the voting age to 16.
8:09 p.m.—Germany: CDU Says Scholz Should Face a Vote of Confidence in Parliament
Centre-right German opposition CDU’s leader Friedrich Merz said Social Democrat (SPD) Chancellor Olaf Scholz suffered a “heavy defeat” on Sunday. ”Things cannot continue as they have for the last two and a half years. You are damaging our country with the policies you are pursuing,” Merz said, directing his message straight at Scholz.
The CDU and its ally CSU are predicted to have received 30% of the votes at the European elections, while the SPD finished third with 14%. Anti-immigration opposition AfD is projected to be the second strongest force with 16%. CDU Secretary General Carsten Linnemann believes the leftist government’s results are “disastrous” and should face a vote of confidence in the parliament.
Meanwhile, AfD Co-chairman Tino Chrupalla described his party’s results as “historic,” adding that they will boost the AfD before three regional elections in the eastern states of the country in the autumn.
7:53 p.m.—Finland: Big Losses for Finns Party As Left Surges
A year of coalition with the centre-right appears to have severely dented the populist Finns Party. Indicators show their vote expected to halve in the face of a massive swing for the socialist Left Alliance.
“Voting activity and the burden of government responsibility weigh heavily,” Finns chairman Riika Purra told Finnish media. She did however express surprise and disappointment, saying this is not the impression she’s had from voter feedback and campaigning. A poll from state Yle earlier this week projected the Finns to gain one seat, moving from one to three. Right now, it looks like the party will instead lose one of their two EP seats.
This is a drastic decline for the Finns Party, down from their national election result of 20% last year, possibly a consequence of their coalition deal with the centre.
With over half the vote counted, the centre right National Coalition Party has gained, while the Finnish Greens are seeing their vote collapse by a third—which looks like part of a wider EU trend.
7:45 p.m.—Croatia Continues Move to the Right
Croatia is continuing its shift to the right, according to exit polls published at 7 p.m. The centre-right ruling Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ), which won its fourth parliamentary elections in a row in April, is predicted to get six seats in the European Parliament, two more than five years ago. Its coalition partner, Homeland Movement, a strongly patriotic, anti-immigration party, which supports traditional values and is critical of the Brussels elite and gender ideology, is set to get one seat, according to the projections. The party was formed in 2020, and did not take part in the EP elections five years ago. The opposition Social Democrats are expected to remain on four seats, and leftist Mozemo! (We can!) to receive one seat.
7:34 p.m.—Record Turnout in Hungary’s Double Election
The turnout in Hungary surpassed 50% for the first time since the Central European country joined the EU in 2004, both due to a general trend of rising interests in EU politics and the fact that the election is held on the same day as this year’s local elections, including mayoral races.
According to the National Election Office, turnout for the EU elections had reached 50.7% by 5:00 p.m., compared to 37% five years ago at the same time. That’s already more than the final turnout in 2019 (43.5%), underlining the importance of the elections that the sovereigntist Fidesz government—on track to claim about 50% of the vote and 11 seats—framed as a choice between war and peace on the European scene.
7:00 p.m.—Germany’s Exit Polls: Populist AfD Projected to Be Country’s Second Biggest Party
Government parties in Germany have been given a kick up the backside by voters in the EU elections. According to exit polls published after voting closed at 6 p.m. the anti-immigration, anti-globalist AfD appears to have finished strongly in second place despite a recent scandal which resulted in their expulsion from the right-wing Identity and Democracy group in the EP. The party is projected to receive 16.5% of the votes and 17 seats, an addition of six seats in the EP. The AfD got 11% of the vote in 2019 and just 7% in 2014.
The centre-right opposition CDU/CSU alliance received 30% of the votes, which would give them 29 seats in the European Parliament (EP), the same number they got five years ago.
The traffic light coalition government appears to have failed to deal with the migration, energy, and cost-of-living crises to the voters’ satisfaction.
The governing Social Democrats (SPD) are projected to be third with 14 seats (two fewer than last time), the Greens look to have taken an enormous loss with just 12 seats (compared to 21 in 2019), and the liberal FDP at 5 seats (the same as 2019).
6:53 p.m.—Scandal-Hit Socialists Lose Ground in Malta
The Mediterranean island of Malta also voted one day early, deciding the fate of a total of six seats up for grabs in the country’s de facto two-party system.
Exit polls indicate that the vote has evened out between the S&D-member Labour Party and the EPP’s Nationalist Party, the home of European Parliament President Roberta Metsola (who’s running again with a solid chance of being re-elected).
This means the ruling Labour has lost one seat (or 25%, if we want to be more dramatic) compared to 2019, probably in part due to the recent wave of major corruption scandals rocking the island, implicating many Labor top brass officials, including a former prime minister and deputy PM.
6:50 p.m.—Belgium: Islamic-Left Surge in Wallonia Startles Socialists
Exit polls show significant gains for the Marxist-Leninist PTB as it challenged the grip of both Francophone Greens and the socialist P&S. Belgian media has warned throughout the campaign that PTB was tapping into ethnic Arab anger over Israel’s response to the October 7th Hamas attack as the explicitly anti-NATO party effectively doubles its vote share.
6:42 p.m.—Austrians Want ”Less Brussels” and “More Austria”
Harald Vilimsky, the lead candidate for the Austrian right-wing FPÖ, referring to the colours of the national flag said that the party’s ”election victory was a strong red-white-red signal.” According to exit polls, FPÖ is predicted to come first, receiving 27% of the votes, which would translate to six seats in the European Parliament. Vilimsky said this means people want ”less Brussels” and ”more Austria” and emphasised that voters have expressed a desire for change.
6:39 p.m.—Greece: Exit Polls Show Socialists Splintering
Greek voters concluded voting at 7 p.m. EET (6 p.m. CET) with initial exit polls showing substantial losses for the former ruling socialist party Syriza, driven by infighting after it veered to the centre the past year.
The governing New Democracy party of prime minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis is expected to easily remain the largest party. The national-conservative Greek Solution is projected to at least double its vote share, while still remaining under 10% according to exit polls.
6:09 p.m.—Cyprus: Nationalist Breakthrough on Cards
Voting closes at 6 p.m. local time but exit polls point to a strong showing for ELAM, the country’s reformist nationalist party as it hopes to secure a MEP seat.
The party has rallied in recent months amid a fresh asylum crisis caused by Syrian migrants.
Both the ruling centre right DISY and socialist AKEL are expected to see a serious drop in vote share.
6:07 p.m.—Poland: Turnout Sluggish at Mid-Day
Turnout in Poland is reported to be low with officials reporting 11% at the ballot boxes by midday with exit polls to be released approximately 11 p.m. CET.
When casting his vote this morning former PiS prime minister Jarosław Kaczyński said Poland risked succumbing to ‘Franco-German’ imperialism as pro-abortion activists attempted to disrupt President Duda as he was casting his vote.
5:47 p.m.—Record Turnout Projected in France
France is expected to register a 40-year record turnout this year, underlining once more how important this election is for the average French citizen, seen as the ‘rehearsal’ for the 2027 presidential election. Harris projects the final turnout to surpass 53%, the highest since 1984. This, together with the predicted victory of Marine Le Pen’s national conservative National Rally marks a solid right-wing shift in French politics that might define the next decades of the country’s history.
5:44 p.m.—Right-Wing FPÖ Strongest Force in Austria
Anti-globalist, anti-immigration Freedom Party (FPÖ) are expected to win the European elections in Austria, according to exit polls released at 5 p.m., after voting closed in the country. The party, which has seen its popularity grow due to an increasing influx of migrants, gained 27% of the votes, which means they’ll get six seats in the European Parliament (five years ago they won three seats).
The governing centre-right People’s Party (ÖVP) got five seats, and so did the largest opposition force, the Social Democrats (SPÖ). ÖVP lost two seats compared to five years ago. The smaller government coalition party, the Greens, and opposition liberal NEOS are both projected to have won two seats on Sunday.
5:42 p.m.—Progressives Claim Victory in Slovakia
Slovakia finished voting on Saturday, and exit polls signal the victory of the leftist, Europhile opposition party, Progressive Slovakia (PS). The liberal Renew member reached nearly 28% and is expected to gain six seats out of Slovakia’s 15, while PM Robert Fico’s anti-globalist, sovereigntist Smer party is in line for 5 seats with 25%.
The third place goes to the national conservative Republika (2 seats, 12%), while the Christian democrats (KDH) and social democrats (Hlas-SD) might get one seat each.
The Slovak race was marked by the assassination attempt on Prime Minister Fico three weeks ago, which he only barely survived, blamed on an atmosphere of hatred cultivated by the opposition that portrayed Fico as a Russian puppet for following a sovereigntist foreign policy.
Smer’s S&D membership was suspended last year, and the party is expected to enter one of the sovereigntist groups after the election.
5:40 p.m.—Exit Poll: Latvia Shifts to the Right
According to leaked seat projections from Latvia, the Baltic country has shifted to the right. The governing centre-right New Unity (JV) party and opposition conservative National Alliance (NA) both appear to keep two seats in the European Parliament, the same result they got five years ago. The centre-right political alliance, United List (AS), formed in 2022, gained one seat, and so did right-wing populist Latvia First (LPV), a party established three years ago. Of the remaining three seats allocated to Latvia in the European Parliament, the projections are for one each for liberal For Latvia’s Development (LA), social democratic Harmony, and the Progressives.
5:37 p.m.—Belgium: Flemish Nationalists and Arab Populism Setting Stage for Coalition Chaos
Early tallies bode well for the centre-right Flemish N-VA hinting that it has gotten ahead of Vlaams Belang. Strong showing by the Marxist Workers Party of Belgium (PTB) across both Wallonia and Flanders, presumably capitalising on the Arab vote.
Belgian media report that the general trends in national, European, and local elections should be known by around 7:00 p.m.5:21 p.m.
5:21 p.m.—Liberal Media Getting Their Excuses in Early?
The Guardian, the pro-Brussels UK newspaper, has kicked off its live coverage of the EU elections by warning that “As 21 countries are called to the polls today, experts remain on high alert for a tsunami of disinformation.”
By “disinformation”, these experts mean for example the “far-right” spreading negative stories about migrants in Europe, “depicting them as violent or perpetrators of crimes.” Some voters in Brussels, Dublin, and other divided European cities may have their own views on who is really spreading falsehoods here.
It looks as if the liberals are getting their excuses in early, before any results showing a rise in support for populist parties. Translation: “Don’t blame Brussels, it’s the voters’ fault for believing those far-fight peddlers of Russian disinformation!”
5:18 p.m.—Ireland: Positive Government Showing Could Force November Election
EU exit polls should be released at around 11 p.m. GMT (12 a.m. CET) but a handful of right-wing independent local candidates are currently being elected. The general trend is that ruling progressive parties are seeing minimal losses as the right-wing surge eats into the vote share of the left-wing Sinn Féin opposition party.
There are rumours of a November general election due to strong government showing. Results of European elections could take until Tuesday to be known, due to the complicated electoral system and number of candidates. Strong chance of 3 right-wing populist MEPs.
4:57 p.m.—Wilders Makes Big Gains
As we reported earlier, Geert Wilders’ right-wing Party for Freedom (PVV) is projected to be the big winner in the Dutch EU elections, based on exit polls released after voting closed on Thursday night. The anti-immigration PVV looks poised to increase their seats in the European Parliament from one to seven. The exit polls suggest that Frans Timmermans’ red-green alliance received more votes in the election, winning eight out of the 31 seats allocated to the Netherlands in the European Parliament, but losing one seat compared to its previous EP representation.
