French President Emmanuel Macron has organized an ad-hoc summit in Paris for Monday, February 26th, in a desperate effort to find solutions to Ukraine’s chronic ammunition shortage as well as to send a clear message that Europe remains on Kyiv’s side for as long as it takes to win the war. The problem is that ordinary people in Europe no longer believe that’s possible.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, Estonian PM Kaja Kallas, Dutch PM—and NATO Secretary-General hopeful—Mark Rutte are among the 20 top officials expected in the Elysée Palace on Monday afternoon, along with British Foreign Secretary David Cameron.
The leaders believe a show of unity is especially important now, days after the invasion’s second anniversary and after Russian troops captured the city of Avdiivka. The Russians are making slow but steady gains throughout the front as Ukrainians are forced to abandon positions due to a lack of artillery ammunition and other vital equipment.
The search for ammo
Apart from making a big stand, Monday’s meeting was focusing on solving Ukraine’s catastrophic ammunition shortage which is seen as the most imminent threat to Kyiv’s prospects on the battlefield.
One year ago, the EU pledged to deliver one million artillery shells to Ukraine by March 2024. Spoiler alert: it won’t happen. Not even half that amount had been reached so far with just a few days remaining until the self-set deadline, with the full amount expected to be delivered only sometime toward the end of the year.
The reason for that is not only that Europe wasn’t able to ramp up its ammunition production as much as it wanted, but also that non-Western nations are not too keen on selling their low-running stocks either. “Unfortunately, artillery and anti-aircraft ammunition are not widely found on shelves around the world,” said General Christian Freuding, the German Defense Ministry’s chief Ukraine strategist told Der Spiegel over the weekend.
Freuding told the paper that the German Ministry of Defense as well as other EU countries are racing with time to find potential ammunition sellers worldwide, but with only limited success so far. Most countries would rather hold onto their stocks while many are also uncomfortable about getting involved in the conflict, even if the West promises discretion.
For instance, Freuding said Germany had been pressuring India to sell up to a couple hundred thousand artillery rounds from its giant stockpile, but New Delhi declined the deal in order to maintain its amicable relationship with Moscow. Nonetheless, Berlin is still trying to strike a deal through intermediaries if possible. Lesser but similar deals are being prepared in the Balkans and in Africa too.
How low can we go?
The big question that needs to be discussed in Paris and elsewhere, is whether Europe is ready to truly step up its game if the U.S. contributions dry up, including by further depleting EU weapon stocks.
Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen—who recently made a splash by donating her country’s entire artillery and ammo stockpile to Ukraine—thinks it’s time for drastic measures. “Sorry to say, friends, there is still military equipment in stock in Europe,” she told the other leaders in Munich.
A year ago, the idea was that EU nations could freely donate whatever they wanted because, with the help of EU subsidies, they would quickly ramp up the defense industry and replenish their stocks anyway. It works, but much slower than anticipated. Moreover, the European Peace Facility (EPF)—the EU’s defense cash pot—was there to reimburse every member for their donations, until some members started to abuse it to modernize their equipment for a fraction of the price.
Now, the proposal to increase the EPF ceiling as well as to authorize further joint EU procurement has been stuck in Brussels for weeks, as Germany and France are still negotiating certain caveats. Germany wants some discounts based on prior bilateral contributions, while France has been pushing for a “Buy European” clause in case of joint purchases.
Finally, ahead of the Paris meeting, France indicated that it was ready to be more flexible to get things underway, with the same Elysée advisor saying that “we’ll buy shells where they’re available.” At the same time, he also said that no new arms deliveries will be announced on Monday, which means the summit is more political theater and less part of an actual solution.
But if there’s one thing that there’s no shortage of in Europe, it’s optimism.
“We are determined, we are motivated and we are committed to Ukraine’s victory,” one of Macron’s top advisers said before the meeting. “There’s no ‘doom and gloom’ feeling on our part, [even though it] was an expression that was circulating a lot at the Munich Security Conference last weekend,” he said. “But I’ll tell you very clearly here, we’re neither doomy nor gloomy.”
“Push Ukraine towards a peace deal”
EU citizens, however, have a much more nuanced take. A recent survey of over 17,000 respondents across 12 EU countries, published by the EU’s oldest and largest foreign affairs think tank, the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), found that only one in 10 Europeans believe the war would end with Ukraine’s victory.
In contrast, twice that amount (20%) think that Russia will emerge victorious, while the largest share of respondents, 37% on average, believe the war would end with a compromise settlement. The rest—one-third—didn’t know or didn’t care enough about the war to reply.
The most optimistic about Ukraine’s victory were the Poles, Swedes, and Portuguese, but still only 17% of them said Ukraine could win without a compromise. The most pessimistic nations about Kyiv’s chances for victory were Italy (6%), Hungary (4%), and Greece (2%).
At the same time, the average respondent also made clear that they would prefer Europe to force Ukraine to the negotiating table (41%) rather than support Kyiv in taking back its occupied territories (31%). The latter position was more popular in only 5 countries (Sweden, Portugal, Poland, France, and Spain), while the prospective peace deal with Russia was the preferred choice in the Netherlands, Germany, Austria, Romania, Italy, Greece, and Hungary.
If it wasn’t obvious from this data, Europeans in general no longer support the EU’s Ukraine strategy. When asked directly, 37% said the EU played a negative role in the war, and only 29% thought it played a positive one.
Brussels and the capitals holding onto this strategy, therefore, is just another sign of the growing divide between the European elite and the people they are supposed to represent.
