President of the European Council Charles Michel has set out a very optimistic timeline for Ukraine to join the European Union. As the war rages on with no end in sight, and with about one-fifth of the country under Russian control, Michel told German publication Der Spiegel, that Ukraine could become a full member of the EU by 2030.
“Ukraine may indeed become a member of the EU in 2030 if both sides do their homework,” Michel said. He added that Ukraine and other EU candidate countries must carry out “reforms, fight corruption and comply with legal conditions.” In another interview with Portuguese news agency Lusa, Michel said EU leaders should give the green light to opening formal accession negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova at the December European summit. The two countries were granted EU candidate status at the summit of EU leaders last June, with observers noting that the decision was more symbolic than realistic, signalling the bloc’s intention to reach deep into the former Soviet Union.
Apart from Moldova and Ukraine, four countries—Albania, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia—have started accession negotiations that are progressing extremely slowly. Bosnia received candidate status last December, Georgia and Kosovo have only applied to become EU members, and Turkey’s negotiations, which started in 2005, have frozen due to a myriad of political disagreements.
Charles Michel stressed that the EU must react to the growing influence of Russia and China in the Western Balkan region. The goal of achieving enlargement by 2030 is “a clear incentive for all of us to prepare and accelerate our efforts.”
An expert commission, led by the European affairs ministers of Germany and France, published a report last week also arguing that EU enlargement was necessary for geopolitical reasons. The enlargement of the EU is facing obstacles, however, as Western European countries fear that an EU made up of around 35 member states would be difficult to govern, therefore, expansion is being discussed in conjunction with reforming the EU, and taking away member states’ veto rights.
The informal summit of EU leaders on Friday in the Spanish city of Granada will start off discussions on the matter.
According to three diplomats who spoke to Politico, leaders are preparing to give Kyiv the green light to begin formal talks on joining the bloc before the end of the year. The European Commission is due to issue a “progress report” in November on how well Ukraine and other candidates are meeting the bloc’s conditions—including judicial reforms and curbing corruption—for joining. Even though Kyiv has only met two out of seven conditions, “leaders are set to make a political statement authorising negotiations.”
It remains to be seen whether Central European countries that have been sued by Ukraine for their ban on Ukrainian grain imports will be willing to lend Kyiv a helping hand. Poland has been more critical of Ukraine in recent months, and Slovakia could soon have a new prime minister in Robert Fico, who has denounced the EU for sending weapons to Ukraine and sanctioning Russia.
Though Hungary supported Ukraine’s EU candidacy, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán said in a speech last week that “we shall not support Ukraine in the international arena on any issue until it reinstates the earlier laws that guaranteed the rights of Hungarians in Transcarpathia.” Hungary has criticised Ukraine in the past few years for curbing the rights of its ethnic minorities. On the other hand, Hungary has been supportive of EU enlargement as a whole, citing the fight against illegal migration and increasing security as reasons why Western Balkans nations should join the bloc.
