Ahead of this Sunday’s parliamentary election in Finland, the nationalist Finns Party is optimistic. And with good reason, as polls show the party in a three-way race for power with the ruling Social Democrats and centre-right National Coalition.
The Finns Party (formerly known as True Finns) seeks to dethrone Social Democrat Prime Minister Sanna Marin, seen internationally as a poster girl for progressive politics, in a campaign defined by immigration, inflation, and NATO membership. The tide has turned against the once-popular Social Democrats since the end of the COVID-19 lockdown last year and amid rising inflation and an energy crisis.
Coming in first would be a symbolic victory for the Finns Party, which is still trying to make amends for the blunder of joining a doomed 2015 coalition that precipitated a bitter split within the party. The Finns Party already came in on top in a so-called shadow election of 90,000 students held earlier this month, with polls showing the party’s popularity among younger voters to be part of a European trend Brussels would otherwise like to forget.
All of this is bad news for sitting Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin, who had earned a sterling reputation abroad for her pro-feminist credentials, becoming the world’s youngest leader when she took power in 2019. Marin is seen to have taken the Social Democrats to the left during her tenure and has come under pressure to reduce public spending.
The Finns Party emerged as an agrarian-populist movement in the 1990s and campaigns on immigration control, Euroscepticism, and the prioritisation of Finnish culture over Islamisation and other minority group movements.
The party has strategically used the social network app TikTok to reach younger voters and has seen off accusations of racism and a neo-fascist splinter group, the Blue-and-Black Movement, to rise steadily in the polls. NATO membership and the spectre of Russian aggression have loomed large over the election cycle. With general unity within the Finnish parliament, the Finns Party has softened a formerly ambivalent stance on joining the alliance.
Speaking to The European Conservative, Jessica Vahtera, an activist in the Finns Party, was confident of her party’s chances in Sunday’s election. Her confidence was based on what she had witnessed on the doorsteps and in recent polls, adding that her party would be open to a coalition with any bloc.
The biggest challenge is if people don’t go to vote and stay home, but I trust people are so frustrated with the left-green sector and how they are ruling Finland that they want to make a change
A win for the Finns Party would put the winds in the sails of a European movement of right-wing populists who can support Atlanticist efforts in the war between Ukraine and Russia, while benefiting from rising dissatisfaction with immigration and inflation. Despite the Finns Party embracing certain chauvinistic policies regarding the rights of Swedish speakers in Finland, the elections this weekend will be carefully scrutinised by the nationalist Sweden Democrats, who would want to repeat any success their populist neighbours may have.
Regardless of the result, experts predict a hard time for whichever party wins the election in stitching together a working coalition.
