For months, the president of the French Republic has been envisioning himself as a warlord. Increasing his contacts with foreign leaders in an attempt to influence current crises, he peppers his media appearances with allusions to ‘commitment’ and the need to respond to ‘threats.’ Considering the deteriorating international situation, French authorities plan to distribute a booklet to all citizens in the coming months, outlining how to behave in the event of war.
The General Secretariat for Defence and National Security (SGDSN), which is supervising the production of the booklet, denies any intent to provoke alarmism or to prepare the French population for a possible war. A few months ago, Sweden adopted a similar approach, publishing a booklet clearly oriented towards the risk of war. On the French side, the guide is designed to cover a whole spectrum of potential crises, from industrial accidents to radioactive leaks, including natural phenomena (flooding), or bacteriological phenomena (epidemics). Armed conflict would be just one scenario among others. The booklet is said to be the culmination of the “national resilience strategy,” a plan launched in 2022, at the end of the COVID-19 pandemic, intended to “better prepare France, its businesses and its citizens for these shocks, to withstand crises over time, collectively and in depth.”
The booklet, currently being proofread by the prime minister’s staff, is to be distributed free of charge to all French households by the summer. It is about twenty pages long and divided into three parts: “protect yourself”; “what to do in the event of an alert”; and “get involved,” with a mobilising tone intended to appeal to the ‘civic-mindedness’ of the French in service to their country. It will mainly contain practical advice: litres of water and tins to store at home; contents of the first aid kit; torch to stock up in case of power cuts; etc. “The idea is to tell the French: ‘Be prepared to cope for a few days on your own’,” explain the designers of the manual.
Even if the booklet is not intended to prepare for war, this is how it has been analysed in the French press. In recent days, there has been a flood of articles on the prospect of conflict and the degree of commitment of French society in the event of war. Interviews and vox pops are multiplying on all media, TV, and radio channels to try to take the pulse of the French regarding their willingness—or lack thereof—to fight or to participate in the national effort in various ways (fire brigade, military or health reserve, civil security). The confrontation between Volodymyr Zelensky and Donald Trump in the Oval Office acted as a revelation for many, says Le Figaro, which, based on around a hundred testimonies, identifies a real ‘tipping point.’ “Since the end of the 1980s, the French have been told that they are protected by nuclear deterrence and by the American presence at their side. This cognitive framework is currently being profoundly shaken,” explains historian Bénédicte Chéron, a specialist in army-society relations.
The concerns of the French people coincide with President Macron’s plans in terms of timing. The head of state’s increased involvement in international politics can easily be explained by his fragility at home. Deprived of a majority in the National Assembly, forced to collaborate with a government that does not explicitly support him, foreign policy remains the only field in which he can intervene and—so he hopes—feel useful.
