Following two days of consultations with leading figures from all the political parties represented in the National Assembly, the—partial—verdict is in. Emmanuel Macron has still not found his prime minister, but categorically rules out any government formed with the left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) coalition.
The mismatch between the NFP’s vote share and the impulse to exclude it from power speaks to the president’s despising the popular vote. In turn, the optics of this would be damaging to Macron and so the search for allies is under way. New consultations have begun, in a climate of high tension and growing discontent.
The first phase of consultations ended on the evening of Monday, August 26th. Macron took the time to meet representatives of the Left on Friday, August 23rd, and on August 26th he met the Rassemblement National (RN) and its allies.
Over the weekend, sensing the inevitable stalemate and the prospect of leading a new government slipping further and further away, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, president of the controversial La France Insoumise (LFI) party, reached out with a conciliatory proposal: he said he agreed that a government should be formed in the colours of the NFP, but without his party being part of it—a tactic to manage the mistrust within public opinion that is turning increasingly hostile to him. But the proposal was not enough to change Macron’s position.
In a statement issued on late Monday, August 26th, the Élysée Palace said it was categorically opposed to the appointment of an NFP government—regardless of the presence or absence of LFI. The problem is not so much the participation of LFI as the programme, which is considered dangerous and unworkable. As soon as an NFP government appeared before MPs, it would instantly be overthrown by the right and centre. Macron wants to avoid this scenario at all costs in order to preserve “institutional stability.”
A government based solely on the programme and parties proposed by the alliance with the most MPs, the New Popular Front, would immediately be censured by all the other groups represented in the National Assembly. Such a government would therefore immediately have a majority of over 350 MPs against it, effectively preventing it from acting. In view of the views expressed by the political leaders consulted, the institutional stability of our country means that this option should not be pursued.
Macron therefore announced that he intended to resume the consultations from Tuesday, August 27th, but in a more restricted format. The RN, LR and LFI parties have not been invited. The NFP’s left-wing partners outside the LFI (the socialists, communists and greens) refused to build any form of coalition outside their alliance and declined the invitation. As a result, faced with President Macron, they now find themselves de facto outside any negotiations. By ruling out compromise in solidarity with the LFI, the Left has ensured that the invitees to these new meetings will foreshadow the shape of the future government coalition, as they are essentially parties from the centre and centre-right.
Since the publication of the Élysée communiqué, the French left has been in an uproar, crying democratic hold-up (with a certain amount of bad faith). The French constitution does not require the President to appoint a Prime Minister from the largest group of MPs in the National Assembly, especially when its leadership position is fragile and it is made up of a motley coalition. What’s more, nowhere else can a minority bloc—even one that came out on top in the elections—hope to hold on to power if it doesn’t seek to broaden its base by bringing together people of goodwill.
At the very least, the socialists and the greens should be considering alternative coalitions, but they have committed to the unity of the Left by putting their NFP coalition on a pedestal, like a Ming vase they cannot bring themselves to scratch. This is why they are refusing to engage in any dialogue, and thus find themselves at an impasse. LFI confirmed in a press release that a motion of impeachment of the president would be presented by its deputies to the bureau of the National Assembly “in accordance with Article 68 of the Constitution.”
The discontented are everywhere. If the Left is showing its anger, others invite more pity. The RN and its allies are completely invisible in these discussions. In its press release, the Élysée never once mentioned the RN and its almost 11 million voters, even though it justified its refusal of an NFP government by the risk of its instantaneous overthrow—which is only possible with the addition of the votes of RN MPs.
Marine Le Pen, who heads the RN parliamentary group, tried to turn this into a strength. After her meeting with Macron, she told the press:
The French have been able to see the ball of cynics and hypocrites dancing all summer. They got each other elected, then attacked each other. We are in fact the only opposition to this single party, the only opposition to chaos.
It may be appropriate to play things down. Taking a long time to form a stable government by finding a viable coalition is not unusual in other countries. It is true that in France this has never happened under the Fifth Republic. And it’s all very well for Emmanuel Macron to hide behind the preservation of so-called ‘institutional stability:’ he is the first to have undermined it by opting for dissolution the day after the European elections.
The assembly and the government are slowly but surely moving towards a soft, soulless centre-right from which, unfortunately, there would be nothing to look forward to.
Éric Ciotti, the current president of the LR party now allied to the RN, reminded Emmanuel Macron that the only relevant and solid coalition would be that of the Union of the Rights, provided that all the forces emerging from LR—now divided into two parliamentary groups, one allied with the RN, the other opposed—manage to play on the same side. For the moment, this is out of the question. The anti-RN LR, with their leader Laurent Wauquiez, are calling for a major overhaul of the Right.
In the new configuration that is taking shape, which excludes the Left thanks to its self-inflicted injuries, the paradox is that the RN will have a decisive role to play. It could choose whether or not to censure the next incoming government at a time when a frenzied effort is being made to deny its existence and thwart its representatives.
