The G7 is attempting to stand up to Russian threats to prevent Ukrainian grain from transiting through the Black Sea into international markets.
Russia has controlled the Black Sea since early in its invasion of Ukraine, launched in February 2022. The United Nations and Turkey brokered the Black Sea Grain Initiative in July of 2022 and since then, some 28 million metric tons of Ukrainian grain have been exported through the maritime route, normally the principal means of Ukrainian agricultural products reaching international markets.
The deal is up for renewal again on May 18th.
“We strongly support the extension, full implementation, and expansion” of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, the G7 countries’ agricultural ministers said in a joint communiqué following their two-day meeting in Japan over the weekend.
“We condemn Russia’s attempts to use food as a means of destabilisation and as a tool of geopolitical coercion and reiterate our commitment to acting in solidarity and supporting those most affected by Russia’s weaponization of food,” they emphasised.
But they also reportedly put tougher sanctions on Russia on the table, which did not go unnoticed by Moscow.
According to Japan’s Kyodo news agency, citing Japanese government sources, the meeting discussed putting an almost total ban on exports to Russia.
In reply, former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev warned on Telegram on Sunday that if the G7 banned exports to Russia, his country would terminate the Black Sea Grain deal.
Russia has become increasingly testy about its participation in the Black Sea Grain Initiative. It signed on to the deal again in March but only for 60 days instead of the four months originally hoped for. That way, Russia could reiterate its demands sooner. Just last week, Russia expressed scepticism that Ukraine and the West could meet its demands to continue the pact. Russia wants its state agricultural bank to be allowed back into the international SWIFT payments system and sanctions against fertiliser tycoon Dmitry Mazepin and several others lifted, claiming these restrictions hinder much-needed Russian agricultural products from reaching global markets.
In principle, the West hasn’t placed sanctions on Russian agricultural exports, but Moscow contends that the sanctions already in place—banning almost all transactions with Russian banks from the international SWIFT system and sanctions on some individuals—hinder its exports.
In March, the UN promised to support Russian agricultural exports, but Russia is increasingly distrusting of the UN as well, demanding action directly from Western countries.
Politico also reported last week that a letter from Russia to the Joint Coordination Committee of the Black Sea Grain Initiative warned that Russia had no intention of continuing to allow ships safe passage through the Black Sea after May 18th.
Russia also finds itself in a better negotiating position than even just two months ago.
Several eastern European countries, including Poland and Slovakia, have rebelled against the EU initiative to get Ukrainian grain out through overland routes, claiming Ukrainian grain is flooding their markets and hurting local farmers, and have blocked imports of Ukrainian grain.
Additionally, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who was key in closing the grain deal, faces a tough reelection next month.
The UN also finds itself slightly compromised since recently leaked Pentagon documents show UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres faced a backlash from the U.S. for concessions to Russia that were included in the Black Sea Grain Initiative.
But the G7 appears to have no interest in conceding to Russia. Meanwhile, it’s in Russia’s interest to disrupt the West in any way it can.
