As we reported yesterday, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán made several recent statements on why Budapest opposes opening accession talks with Kyiv and even suggested that next week’s European Council (EUCO) Summit should drop the item from the agenda to save time as there is no chance that a unanimous agreement can be reached.
EU officials were split about whether to take Orbán’s warnings seriously, with many believing that the prime minister was only seeking to get Hungary’s frozen cohesion funds unblocked in exchange for his support to begin Ukraine’s integration process.
It seems, however, that not everything is transactional in EU politics. On Monday evening, Orbán sent a letter to Council President Charles Michel, leaked to Politico, suggesting that no amount of pressure or money can change his mind.
In the letter, Orbán noted that the Commission’s recent proposal to begin accession talks with Kyiv is “unsubstantiated, unbalanced, and unrealistic,” marking the end of the EU’s enlargement policy as “an objective and merit-based instrument.”
Not only is Ukraine not ready for EU membership—being an unstable country with a deteriorating democracy that’s currently in open war with its neighbor—but according to Orbán, the EU is not ready to integrate Ukraine either.
The prime minister reiterated his earlier calls to hold a series of strategic discussions about the future framework of the EU and to review Europe’s long-term Ukraine strategy before any decision can be made.
Unless every concern is thoroughly discussed and incorporated into the strategy, Hungary cannot support Kyiv’s accession, making next week’s vote futile. As Orbán wrote to Michel:
I respectfully urge you not to invite the [EUCO] to decide on these matters in December as the obvious lack of consensus would inevitably lead to failure. The European Council must avoid this counterproductive scenario for the sake of unity, our most important asset.
Seeing that Orbán was indeed serious about blocking the accession process, EU leaders began to scramble in an effort to convince him somehow. Michel, for instance, announced that he will cut short his trip to China and return to Europe on Thursday to discuss the EUCO agenda with EU leaders, including Orbán.
Believing that Orbán is still playing the bidding game and just wants something in return for his support, French President Emmanuel Macron invited the prime minister to Paris at the end of this week to personally attempt to strike a deal.
However, an unnamed EU diplomat commented that it’s not about cash but principles, saying that Orbán “really seems to mean it this time.” After spending a day in Brussels, Zoltán Kovács, the Hungarian government’s spokesman, also confirmed that Budapest’s vote is not for sale.
“Our position on Ukraine … would stand regardless of what is going on with the [frozen] funds,” Kovács underlined, adding that the Commission’s assessment is nothing but “wishful thinking.”
With a war raging and 20 percent of the country occupied … There are no working democratic institutions in the country. … There is a purge going on in Ukraine. … How on Earth can anyone suggest [that] Ukraine is ready for accession talks?
Pointing out that Ukraine is not the most functional country right now shouldn’t be a controversial statement. It’s true that the Pulitzer-winner investigative journalist Seymour Hersh’s revelations about Zelensky and his team embezzling $400 million of foreign assistance or the secret peace negotiations going on behind the Ukrainian president’s back by a dissatisfied faction of military high command might not be easily verifiable, but others, such as Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko recently saying that Zelensky is becoming “increasingly isolated and autocratic,” are.
It’s important to note that Hungary is not against EU enlargement in general. Orbán is perhaps the biggest supporter of the six West Balkan countries’ EU accession, reminding Brussels time and time again that there is a queue and preferential treatment for Ukraine is not fair.
Indeed, the majority of the West Balkans have been waiting for their EU membership for nearly two decades. Serbia, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Albania all have a better track record of implementing the EU’s necessary pre-accession reforms than Ukraine, yet Brussels is pushing for Ukraine’s accession instead.
Austrian Foreign Minister Alexander Schallenberg, for one, said that his country favors opening the negotiations with Ukraine as long as Bosnia gets the same treatment. In response, several EU diplomats suggested that Vienna was well aware that accession talks with Bosnia were out of the question for the Commission as long as the country’s current constitutional crisis stands (which is, somehow, more problematic than a war in Ukraine…?) and is, in fact, opposed to Ukraine’s accession without saying it out loud.
“It’s not just Orbán. The Dual Monarchy is back. When it comes to enlargement, Austria is hiding behind Hungary, but no one dares to point that out,” another diplomat commented. It’s a long-standing assumption in the Brussels bubble that more countries have differing opinions from the Commission but choose not to use their veto—and therefore put a target on their backs—simply because they know Hungary will use its own anyway.
It’s safe to assume that several others don’t like the idea of fast-tracking Ukraine’s EU membership and trying to integrate the country’s enormous agriculture and war-torn economy into the EU free market without further risk assessment (think, for instance, the Polish and Slovak truckers’ protests happening right now) but choose to sit quietly and let Orbán speak for them.
Starting negotiations on “Ukraine’s EU membership does not coincide with the interests of many member states,” the prime minister said on Friday. The difference is that Hungary is “in a position to dare to say it, no matter how much pressure is put on us.”
