Negotiations are at a standstill over the vote on the French budget for 2025. As a result, the fall of Michel Barnier’s government is shaping up as a realistic possibility. Faced with the failure of the talks, the Rassemblement National (RN) has announced that, “barring a last-minute miracle,” it will support a vote of no confidence in the prime minister, likely deciding his fate in the next three days.
Marine Le Pen had been very clear about the timetable. At the end of her meeting with the prime minister on November 25th, she had set an ultimatum of Sunday, December 1st, for the head of government to take account of her comments on the finance bill about to be put to an MPs’ vote.
The leader of the French national Right felt that the government had ended the discussions of its own accord. Minister Delegate for the Budget and Public Accounts Laurent Saint-Martin gave an interview with the newspaper Le Parisien on Sunday, where he announced that it was out of the question to make any further “concessions” to the RN—having already submitted once to Le Pen’s requests by cancelling the increase in taxes on electricity. Saint-Martin denounced “blackmail” by the RN.
Communication has broken down. The PM has announced that he “remained open to dialogue,” but the RN plans to vote on censure “unless the government makes a complete U-turn”—a U-turn that is now highly unlikely.
“It would be irresponsible to pass a budget that raises taxes, penalises French businesses and growth, and fails to tackle the waste of public money,” explained RN leader Jordan Bardella on RTL on the morning of Monday, December 2nd.
The scenario for the next few days is as follows:
- On the afternoon of Monday, December 2nd, the social security finance bill, which represents a significant part of the overall finance bill for 2025, is due to be debated.
- In all likelihood, there will not be a majority for passing it.
- Barnier could then decide to trigger article 49.3 of the constitution to pass it without a vote.
- In response, the Left will immediately propose a ‘motion of censure’ designed to prevent the forced adoption of the budget, and to challenge the government.
- The motion of censure will then be put to a vote by MPs on December, Wednesday 4th or Thursday 5th.
For several weeks now, the RN has been announcing that it would join forces with the Left to bring down Barnier’s government, and several leading figures from the RN have confirmed this on X in recent days. The joint votes of the Left and of the RN are enough to overthrow the government.
Against this chaotic backdrop, the pollsters recorded a fall in Barnier’s popularity rating, with 53% of French people in favour of censuring the government. Emmanuel Macron’s popularity is also at its lowest level since 2017, with only 22% of French people saying they are satisfied with his actions.
