Russia maintains solid popularity in the two break-away Georgian republics South Ossetia and Abkhazia, so Moscow may annex them in the future, argued Dmitry Medvedev, the Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council and former President, in an article titled “Unlearned Lessons,” published by the Kremlin-aligned Argumenty i Fakty on Wednesday, August 23.
“The idea of joining Russia is still popular in Abkhazia and South Ossetia,” Medvedev wrote in his opinion piece in the paper, floating the possibility of future annexation. “It could quite possibly be implemented if there are good reasons for that,” the former President added.
Ethnic Russians are the majority in both regions of the South-Caucasian country, which led to Georgia losing control of them in the chaotic aftermath of the Soviet Union’s dissolution. Later, Tbilisi’s attempt to reunify the break-away republics with the Georgian mainland triggered a Russian invasion (“peace enforcement operation”) in 2008, a brief but bloody war that solidified the existing status quo.
Following the five days of fighting—which led to the displacement of around 200,000 civilians and the indirect ethnic cleansing of the disputed territories—Moscow recognized the independence of the two republics and set up military bases with “peacekeeper” forces in each of them, thereby preventing Tbilisi from reclaiming them ever since.
In the ceasefire agreement, brokered by PM Nicolas Sarkozy in the name of the EU Council’s French presidency, both Russia and Georgia agreed to cease the hostilities and remove their troops—except the Russian peacekeepers, who were allowed to stay for 6 months but have not left since. Today, Abkhazia and South Ossetia (similarly to Donetsk and Luhansk prior to the Ukraine war) are part of Russia in all but name, with a population of around 300,000 between them.
It’s no surprise that the possibility of a renewed Georgian conflict has now been brought up by Medvedev himself. Not only because he is proving to be one of the most hawkish voices in the Kremlin, but also because the 2008 invasion happened during his presidential term, and he likes to remind everyone of how competent of a warlord he was, even if such remarks risk ruining the slowly improving relationship between Moscow and Tbilisi.
The article itself marks the 15th anniversary of Russia’s recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. As such, its smug, celebratory tone is obvious, as Medvedev credits Russia’s Georgian victory to Western ignorance, hypocrisy, and overall incompetence.
It seems that for the U.S. and its henchmen, the territory of the former [Soviet] Union is a ‘country of unlearned lessons’ that should have been learned long ago.
Specifically, Medvedev brings up annexation in response to Georgian officials’ recent determination to join NATO at some point and thus preserve the country’s integrity. Just like in the case of Ukraine, the former president argued, this is the exact reason why that integrity must be challenged.
“We will not wait if our concerns become closer to reality,” Medvedev wrote. “For the West, such a turn of events will become another shameful fiasco and another symbol of catastrophic loss of influence. And history severely punishes all those who neglect their lessons.”
