The Democratic Republic of Congo, which is a key source of minerals for the EU’s green agenda, is facing a violent election season and the possibility of a coup, observers have warned. The threat of increased instability in the already volatile country could also have ripple effects on migration patterns, as the country currently hosts more than half a million refugees and 6.2 million internally displaced people, the largest such population in Africa.
The decision by the EU and other international observers to reduce their on-the-ground presence in the African nation in the lead-up to the elections due to security concerns is drawing media attention as experts warn that the already war-torn African state runs the risk of spiralling into chaos.
Brussels’s equivalent of a foreign affairs department, the EEAS, issued a statement on November 29th citing a worsening security environment as well as “technical reasons.” An EU spokesperson went on to clarify to Reuters that while the election observers themselves were in the African nation, they were unable to travel through the country to perform their duties.
Forty million Congolese voters will head to the polls on December 20th as President Félix Tshisekedi, elected under a cloud of suspicion in 2018, attempts to safeguard a second five-year term.
The son of a former prime minister and heavily connected to mining interests, Tshisekedi has been noted for his pro-American policy orientation when it comes to curbing Chinese influence in Congo as well as refusing to deploy Russian mercenaries to quell a decades-long insurgency in the east of the country led by the Rwandan-backed rebel group M23.
Already, there are multiple signs of political violence and vote rigging, as Tshisekedi faces off against Martin Fayulu, the candidate most observers view as the rightful winner of the 2018 Congolese election.
Also in contention for the presidency are Moïse Katumbi, a wealthy mining magnate based in the Katanga Province, as well as the human rights champion and Nobel Prize winner Dr. Denis Mukwege, who is favoured by Western NGOs.
Congo remains economically and politically fragile. African nations are in the process of withdrawing their observer troops due to the perceived futility of maintaining order between rebel and government forces, while the EU has renewed partial sanctions against the country, citing human rights abuses.
The eastern half of the country is experiencing an escalation in violence following an offensive launched by Tutsi-led M23 fighters in October that resulted in 200,000 people being displaced. In addition to the 6.2 million people displaced within the country, another 1 million people have fled to neighbouring countries. According to the UNHCR, the UN’s refugee agency, the DRC has, at the same time, received over half a million refugees from Rwanda, South Sudan, Burundi, and the Central African Republic.
France has an additional interest in the upcoming election as Macron publicly clashed with Tshisekedi over the legacy of French colonialism. The French Left is avowedly on the side of the Congolese against what they view as Rwandan expansionism.
Equally as famous for its postcolonial political misrule as for its abundant mineral wealth, Congo has increased in geopolitical relevance in recent years due to its strategic role for China, Russia, Europe and the United States.
The European Commission signed a partnership in October with the Congolese government to enable the flow of critical raw materials necessary for the EU’s green transition. France has taken a lead role in directing Europe’s humanitarian response to the conflict in Eastern Congo.
Right across Africa, France and Europe are experiencing an existential crisis of influence as post-colonial elites favourable to the West in the Sahel are removed by Russian-backed juntas.
Many African experts believe that generations of mismanagement and trigger-happy military units could result in the Sahel crisis spreading. The research group Semafor has listed the Congo Basin as the next theatre for conflict as the global hunt for resources heats up.
The European Commission did not respond to a media inquiry from The European Conservative about what they plan to do in case of election chaos in Congo.
