Citizens of the former Soviet republic of Moldova have narrowly voted to insert a clause into the country’s constitution defining EU membership as a goal. However, President Maia Sandu accused Moscow of interfering in the referendum in what she called an “unprecedented assault on our country’s freedom and democracy.”
The vote, which was held on Sunday, October 20th, the same day as the first round of the presidential election, was seen as a test to determine whether the country was heading towards the path of EU integration or remaining in the orbit of Russia.
The pro-EU forces of Moldova, one of the poorest and most corrupt countries in Europe, have been hastily pursuing EU membership since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022. The country, which is wedged between Ukraine and EU-member Romania and has a population of around 2.5 million, was granted EU candidate status in June 2022, with the European Union opening accession talks in June of this year.
Sandu has said that only EU membership can guarantee that Moldova will not end up becoming Russia’s next target. Moldova has aimed to join by 2030, but the weariness of some EU member states to continue EU enlargement could mean accession will take many more years.
The referendum, intended to cement Moldova’s place in Europe, only narrowly reached its objective, as 50.3% voted in favour of the amendment to the constitution, and 49.7% voted against it. During the announcement of preliminary results, the “no” votes had a majority, but the postal votes of Moldovans living abroad eventually flipped the result.
Sandu blamed the close result on Russia, as opinion polls before the referendum had predicted a clear majority of Moldovans supporting EU accession. “Moldova has faced an unprecedented assault on our country’s freedom and democracy, both today and in recent months,” Sandu told reporters in Chisinau. She blamed “criminal groups, working together with foreign forces hostile to our national interests,” adding that “their objective was to undermine a democratic process.”
Russia has been frequently accused of trying to undermine stability in Moldova, upping its attempts since its invasion of Ukraine. It currently stations between 500 and 1,500 of its soldiers in the breakaway, de facto independent eastern Moldovan region of Transnistria.
Anti-government protests in the capital Chișinǎu last year, fueled by outrage over skyrocketing energy prices, were attributed to Russian interference, and came only a week after Sandu announced the uncovering of Russian plans to overthrow her government. Forty-five employees of the Russian Embassy were expelled last year for their “numerous unfriendly actions” towards Moldova, as well as their “attempts to destabilise the internal situation in our country.”
Fears of Russian interference had been looming large before the referendum after police made hundreds of arrests in recent weeks. In early October, the police accused Ilan Shor, an exiled pro-Russia oligarch, who was jailed in absentia for fraud and theft, of trying to pay off 130,000 voters to vote “no.” “We have clear evidence that these criminal groups aimed to buy 300,000 votes—a fraud of unprecedented scale,” Maia Sandu said on Monday, mentioning an even larger number.
Ahead of the vote, Moldovan authorities took down online resources they said hosted disinformation, and announced they had uncovered a programme in Russia to train Moldovans to stage mass unrest.
Moscow has “categorically” rejected accusations of meddling.
As Dionis Cenusa, an associate expert at the Moldovan think tank Expert-Grup told The European Conservative earlier this year:
The greatest risks are related to the militarization of poverty in Moldova, which affects more than a third of the population. The poor segment of society can be more easily drawn into protests and other populist demonstrations against the government. They are more vulnerable to bribery, which Shor and his group massively use through illegal financing.
However, the expert added, while there is evidence of attempts by political forces to coordinate their political activity from the outside, there is a lack of evidence about Russia’s intention to organise coups against the current government.
Meanwhile, President Maia Sandu gained 42% of the vote in the presidential election, which was held on the same day as the referendum. Her main rival, Alexandr Stoianoglo, whose candidacy was backed by the traditionally pro-Moscow Party of Socialists, got 26%. The two will head into the second round of voting in two weeks.
Alexandr Stoianoglo has said that if he comes to power, he will develop a “balanced” foreign policy involving ties with the EU, Russia, and the United States.
The next set of crucial elections to take place amid the geopolitical crisis in Europe will be on October 26th in Georgia, another EU candidate country, whose government has been accused of harbouring strong ties with Russia.
However, the ruling Georgian Dream party claims it is only pursuing pragmatic relations with Moscow, and that they are continuing on their path to the EU, and hope to join by 2030.
Georgian Dream has drawn the ire of its Western allies for refusing to give in to liberal ideology, putting the party on a platform with Viktor Orbán’s government in Hungary. The Georgian parliament recently adopted a new law aiming to safeguard traditional family values. The legislation outlaws same-sex marriage, adoption by same-sex couples, gender reassignment surgeries, promotion of homosexuality and gender transition in media and advertisements, as well as any kind of display or promotion of LGBT ideology in schools.
According to recent polls, Georgian Dream, which is seeking a fourth term in office, remains the most popular party and has the support of 36% of the voters. The opposition is split up into three to four pro-Western political alliances.
