With the elections in Slovakia and Poland just around the corner, questions are arising about how a shift in the balance of power could impact the cooperation of the Visegrád countries (V4), namely the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia. The stability of the V4 group has been called into question lately, with Hungary’s stance on the war in Ukraine, and the current Czech government’s orientation towards Western “values” causing tensions among its members.
The Prime Minister of Hungary, Viktor Orbán, seems to have added fuel to the fire. In a speech given on July 22nd, he said that in the struggle between federalists and sovereigntists “the Czechs have basically changed sides, Slovakia is wobbling, and only the Poles and Hungarians are holding out.”
The prime minister was referring to the electoral defeat two years ago of his ally, Andrej Babiš, who—like Orbán—is opposed to mass migration and EU federalism. Babiš’s centrist-populist ANO party has been by far the most popular party in the Czech Republic for the past six-seven years, but a staunchly pro-NATO, Atlanticist coalition of conservative, liberal, progressive, and green parties, led by Petr Fiala, was able to oust Babiš from government.
Since the onset of the Ukraine war last February, Fiala’s government has been among the European Union’s most fervent proponents of the collective West’s sanctions against Russia and is among the top providers of military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine.
“I think it’s no secret, and anyone can see it, that the V4 countries … aren’t experiencing the best of times. Hungary’s different positions significantly contribute to this situation and significantly complicate it”, Fiala told reporters last year when the leaders of the four Central European countries met in a regional summit.
Showcasing the Czech Republic’s alignment to EU “standards” Foreign Minister Jan Lipavský criticised Hungary for its child protection law, calling it an “anti-LGBTQI+ law”, while Speaker of the Chamber of Deputies Markéta Pekarová Adamová said last year said she hoped voters would “expel” Viktor Orbán in the Hungarian elections, stating that the government was an “undemocratic regime”.
Viktor Orbán’s recent words about the Czech Republic “changing sides” has angered Petr Fiala, who stated that his country is a sovereign nation, with the ability to independently determine its own stance on EU matters. He pointed out that he has a different relationship with Orbán compared to his predecessor, Andrej Babiš. “The only change that the Czech Republic has undergone in relation to the EU is a shift from opportunism to a constructive European policy based on shared values”, tweeted Czech Interior Minister Vít Rakušan.
“The dynamics and intensity of the V4 nations’ cooperation always depend on what type of governments are in power. At the moment there are sovereigntist governments in Warsaw and Budapest, and globalist governments in Bratislava and Prague. This is what Viktor Orbán alluded to in his speech”, Zoltán Kiszelly, director of the Századvég Foundation’s Centre of Political Analyses told The European Conservative. He noted, however, that the war in Ukraine has caused further strains within the V4 Group, with Hungary even colliding with Poland, its closest ally.
Poland and Hungary have been at opposing ends of the spectrum regarding the war, with Warsaw demanding more and more military assistance to Ukraine, and Hungary being the only EU member state calling for immediate peace talks.
“But let’s not forget that apart from the war, Poland and Hungary are completely in harmony with each other on almost every other issue. And to a degree even with regards to Ukraine: Poland is pursuing Polish national interests, Hungary is pursuing Hungarian national interests”, added Zoltán Kiszelly.
With the Polish parliamentary elections to take place on October 15th, the ruling nationalist-conservative Law and Justice (PiS) party might even be toning down its rhetorical support for Ukraine, as the right-wing populist Konfederacja (Confederation), a party critical of Poland’s unwavering support for Ukraine, is making strides in opinion polls.
The PiS-led government of Poland and the Fidesz government in Hungary have both been pushing a conservative agenda domestically, often defying EU “norms” and “values”. Both nations have been accused of violating the rule of law and are the only EU members lagging behind in getting the pandemic recovery funds from the European Commission.
It remains to be seen what direction the fourth Visegrád country, Slovakia, will take in the “struggle between federalists and sovereigntists”, but opinion polls suggest that former Prime Minister Robert Fico, an ally of Viktor Orbán on migration, rule-of-law issues and anti-war rhetoric, will win the election on September 30th. Whether he can build a coalition of like-minded parties is questionable, but a political shift, more in line with Hungary, could be on the table.
Despite the above-mentioned ideological differences, the Czech Republic and Slovakia have allied with Hungary and Poland on a range of issues that have directly affected all of them. The prime ministers regularly meet before EU summits to align their views, and have been effective in rejecting migration quotas, advocating for the use of nuclear technology, and most recently banning the domestic sales of Ukrainian wheat, maize, and oilseeds to protect Central European farmers. “The economic situation, the economic restraints are very similar. There are more things that bond these countries than what divides them”, says Zoltán Kiszelly.
