A military junta deposed President Mohamed Bazoum in Niger. Now, two weeks later, West African countries are upping the ante in a bid to persuade it to reinstate the former head of state.
On Thursday, August 11th, leaders of West Africa’s regional alliance ECOWAS convened in Abuja, Nigeria where they once more condemned Bazoum’s unlawful removal.
Earlier, they imposed economic sanctions on Niger, which resulted in a sharp increase in food prices, empty ATMs, and a stop in trade for what is known as one of the poorest countries in the world.
While the bloc voiced its commitment to a diplomatic solution to the coup—the seventh in West and Central Africa in three years—they have put their military forces on standby. According to ECOWAS chairman, President Bola Tinubu, no option was off the table, including the use of force as the last resort in resolving the Niger crisis.
You will see from the communiqué of this extraordinary summit that no option is taken off the table including the use of force as the last resort. If we don’t do it, no one else will do it for us. We remain steadfast in our commitment to supporting Niger towards peaceful and democratic stability in the country.
If deployed, it would be the first time ECOWAS has used such a force.
Analysts worried that any conflict in Niger would draw in various global powers which have strategic and economic interests there. While logistically, a mobilisation of the necessary number of troops would take at least several weeks, the Ivorian Head of State, Alassane Ouattara, has already pledged a battalion, or 850 troops.
“The putschists are held responsible for everything that happens in Niger,” he said, promising that if the junta releases Bazoum, he would “show leniency” towards them.
Divisions within the block, however, might account for Niger’s resistance to intimidation.
Nigeria, which shares the longest border with Niger, opposes such intervention. Since 2009, its troops have been tied up countering Boko Haram forces and their aim to establish an Islamic state in the region, and are thus considered indispensable to that purpose.
Moreover, Mali and Burkina Faso—ECOWAS members which were suspended by ECOWAS after going through coups of their own—have declared they would view such an intervention as a declaration of war on them as well.
Based on interviews with two Western officials, AP reports that Niger’s military junta has threatened to kill President Mohamed Bazoum, still held in captivity, should any intervention occur.
Since late July, Bazoum, together with his wife and son, has been kept locked in his palace, in what he and others claim are poor conditions.
The 55-member-state strong African Union said on Friday that it supported ECOWAS in Niger as it called on the international community to save the life of President Mohamed Bazoum.
The fate of Niger is of principal concern for the West, as it is rich in uranium (it provides 20% of the EU’s uranium imports and 4% of the world’s). Under current conditions, EU nuclear agency Euratom said it saw no immediate risk to nuclear power production in Europe should Niger cut its deliveries of uranium. On August 1st, it reported that the bloc had enough uranium inventories to fuel its nuclear power reactors for three years.
Niger is also a key ally in the West’s fight against Islamist militants in the wider Sahel region. U.S., French, German, and Italian troops are stationed in Niger for that purpose. The U.S. also maintains a drone base on the territory.
EU Foreign Minister Josep Borrell expressed the EU bloc’s “deep concern” at the “deterioration of the conditions of detention” of the president, as it again called for his “immediate and unconditional” release.
The French, who share a troubled colonial history with Niger and have economic interests there (as Niger supplies 15% of France’s uranium needs) have voiced similar sentiments. On Friday, Minister of Foreign Affairs Catherine Colonna called for a return to “constitutional order.”
Earlier on Thursday evening, Paris expressed its full support for ECOWAS and “all the conclusions adopted on the occasion of the extraordinary summit,” including the decision to activate the deployment of a “standby force.”
Anti-French sentiments in Niger have been observed, both before and after the coup, as there seems to be a drive to expel all French influence while allowing other global powers (such as Russia and China) to move in. Niger, now, has reached out to Russia’s Wagner Private Mercenary Group to provide the security against the Islamist militants once provided by the French government.
Only last Wednesday, the military junta accused France of having “unilaterally freed captured terrorists” (a term used for jihadists), who then gathered to plan an attack on “military positions in the tri-border area,” a hotspot region where the frontiers of Niger, Burkina Faso, and Mali (Niger’s main regional allies) converge.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken declared that his country “strongly supports the principled stand reiterated by the leaders of the member states of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) today calling for the restoration of constitutional order in Niger and the immediate release of President Bazoum.”
He, however, did not mention whether Washington would lend either financial or military support, nor whether it approved of ECOWAS’ decision to reserve the option of using force to reverse the coup.
Whether the U.S. will participate, actively or by proxy, a conflict in Niger would spell certain trouble for the European continent, as it would increase migratory pressure even further.
