Poland’s ruling conservative Law and Justice (PiS) is facing an uphill battle to attract younger voters ahead of the October elections. New polling reveals that the party has the support of just 5% of first-time voters aged 18-21.
Warsaw is gearing up for eagerly anticipated autumn elections that will pit the current PiS administration against the EU-backed liberal opposition Civic Platform led by Donald Tusk amid the sudden emergence of a right-wing challenger: in the form of Confederation (Konfederacja) that is challenging PiS’s dominance on the right, particularly among the youth.
According to the polling, Konfederacja is the most popular party among the 18-21-year-old demographic with 31% support in a situation where 80% of respondents describe themselves as “frustrated” with the current political situation in Poland.
A libertarian-minded electoral alliance of right-wing groups that evolved into a fully-fledged political party in 2018, Konfederacja has disproportionate support from young males with 43% opting to give the party their preference as opposed to just 16% of women in the same age bracket.
Konfederacja has attracted younger voters seemingly with its fresh image and liberal policies on economics and a critical stance towards Polish assistance to Ukraine that has recently forced PiS to alter its support for Kyiv on the campaign trail.
The poll also reveals a substantial gender divide among the youth with 21% of Polish women supporting The Left bloc which advocates the liberalisation of Polish abortion law in line with pressure from NGOs.
Overall, the poll’s findings are bad news for PiS. Despite having 36% of overall support, the party’s backing is slumping when it comes to the 1.8 million voters in the under-21 demographic, of which 68% say they are likely to vote in the next election.
PiS has earned criticism from both the left and the right during its time ruling as part of the United Right coalition since 2015. At the same time, the Polish government is experiencing direct threats from Brussels over what Warsaw regards as spurious ‘rule of law’ accusations from the European Commission.
PiS has promised a referendum on the controversial EU migration pact, but has been dragged over the coals by more right-wing parties due to its unwavering support for Ukraine and plans to liberalise Poland’s visa process with the Global South.
On the campaign trail this week, PiS PM Mateusz Morawiecki affirmed his party’s national defence credentials in the wake of aerial incursions by Belarussian helicopters. A few weeks ago, lawmakers approved anti-Russian laws that critics warn could be turned against opposition groups.
In total, 68% of 18- to 21-year-olds described that they had a totally different set of political opinions than their parents, underlining the fact that Poland’s post-democratisation consensus is breaking.
