An electoral bloc of pro-EU agrarian parties and Christian Democrats looks increasingly likely to be the fly in the ointment for a prospective Law and Justice (PiS) majority in Poland as counting continues in the country’s parliamentary election held Sunday, October 15th.
While the conservative PiS fared slightly better than earlier polls had suggested, finishing up the largest party in the Polish Parliament (Sejm) with an expected 198 out of 460 seats, the party looks almost certain to lose their previous 235-seat majority despite a positive spin put out by PiS top brass Sunday night.
Though the vote share for the primary progressive opposition party Civic Platform (KO) remained largely static and support for the leftist Lewica plummeted, a last-minute surge for The Third Way, an alliance of centrist parties—Poland 2050 (PL2050) and the Polish People’s Party (PSL)—looks likely to give anti-PIS factions a majority.
Founded in 2020 by the TV presenter for “Poland’s Got Talent” Szymon Hołownia, Poland 2050 is believed to have capitalised on discontent among rural Polish voters in the wake of the Ukrainian grain crisis and collapse in agricultural prices. The party is in an electoral alliance with the Christian Democratic Polish People’s Party with both parties ruling out any potential alliance with PiS due to the Polish government’s alleged Eurosceptic stance.
Third Way leadership has suggested that coalition talks could begin as soon as the results are confirmed Tuesday, but Poland could potentially be facing weeks or even months of talks to form a multiparty coalition agreement.
PiS has so far not conceded any loss, highlighting the fact that the party still remains by far the largest party in Poland despite eight interrupted years of power and an institutional harassment campaign by the European Commission, Germany, and a hostile press.
Unofficial sources within PiS told The European Conservative that if they lose, the party will instrumentalise their control of the Polish presidency to obstruct any progressive legislative agenda. The same sources suggested that the conservative party could eventually benefit from a short-lived coalition of chaos in Warsaw led by former European Council President Donald Tusk.
Despite record turnout, a symbolic referendum to reduce immigration and oppose the EU’s asylum policies failed to reach the mandatory 50% quorum required to be seen as valid. Certain irregularities were also seen at multiple polling stations around Poland.
Both progressive politicians and pundits in Brussels and Poland have welcomed the outcome of the referendum, saying that Poland can now avail itself of frozen EU funding. PiS had earlier accused the European Commission of political and financial blackmail over its refusal to sign off on €30 billion worth of COVID recovery funds on the grounds that the Polish government was trampling on judicial freedom.
