In yet another sign that right-wing anti-globalism is still in its ascendancy in France and across Europe, a new opinion survey has revealed that Marine Le Pen—the de facto leader of Rassemblement National—would, if presidential elections were held today, comfortably defeat President Emmanuel Macron in a hypothetical second round.
A new “L’Opinion en direct” survey, carried out by firm ELABE for the French news outlet BFMTV, has revealed that Le Pen would, with great ease, win a second-round presidential election against incumbent President Macron, garnering 55% of the national vote to her opponent’s 45%.
The poll’s figures, which may come as a surprise to many, are indicative of a colossal shift in public opinion since the country held its elections almost exactly one year ago, when Macron cruised to victory over Le Pen, collecting 58.8% of the national vote against Le Pen’s 41.5%.
Bernard Sananes, the head of ELABE, said Le Pen’s support is increasing across all voter demographics. He described her gains in the polls as “spectacular,” but warned against over-interpreting the results, given that the next presidential election is four years away. Sananes said,
Emmanuel Macron would struggle to retain his electorate, only seven out of 10 would vote for him again under this hypothesis … And the blocking vote [against the far-right] would be much lower.
The vote tally for Le Pen, however, did mark a notable improvement from the previous election in 2017 where she went head-to-head against Macron in yet another second-round presidential election. That election day, which came after a particularly disastrous debate for Le Pen, saw Macron soundly beat the Front National, with 66.1% of Frenchmen and women casting their ballots for him against a mere 33.9% for Le Pen.
Emmanuel Macron, who from the outset of his presidency was never especially liked among broad swaths of the French population, has become even more unpopular over the years. In the wake of his raising the retirement age from 62 to 64, his already dismal approval ratings and popularity have sunk even lower, as this survey has clearly revealed.
In another survey made by the Viavoice Institute for Liberation, published Thursday, April 6th, 65% of surveyed French reported a negative opinion of President Macron. When asked about their emotions regarding the president, “incomprehension” and “anger” were the two most common responses (at 16% each), followed by “disgust”(13%) and “hope” (10%).
When the next presidential election rolls around, in 2027, Macron is ineligible to run, as French law prevents a president from serving more than two consecutive terms. He could, however, stand for election again in 2032.
A separate poll has Le Pen’s Rassemblement National (RN) coming in first in the initial round of a hypothetical presidential election by a substantial margin, collecting 31%, well ahead of both Macron’s Renaissance Party and Mélenchon’s La France Insoumise (LFI), which garnered 23% and 18.5%, respectively.
France is not the only Western European country, which, over the past year, has witnessed support for right-wing, anti-globalist parties—more specifically those from the Identity and Democracy (ID) European parliamentary grouping—rise considerably, in some cases to the point where they’ve become the most popular party in their respective country.
The trend is apparent in Austria, Flemish Belgium, and Germany as well. The Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ) and Vlaams Belang, the principal right-wing populist parties in Austria and Flanders, have more support than any other party represented in their respective parliaments. Meanwhile, recent opinion polls have shown the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) has surpassed the ruling Greens, making it the third most popular party in the country.
