An astonishing new poll of almost 20,000 people suggests that Reform UK could win a higher vote share than the Conservatives at the general election and bag themselves 18 seats.
The polls have started moving at a rapid pace, with Reform predicted to win only seven seats just a week ago, and none at all not long before that.
This latest MRP poll also shows the Conservatives continuing their rapid decline, suggesting that they will come third in the election behind Labour and the leftist Liberal Democrats, making LibDem boss Sir Ed Davey the official leader of the opposition.
While fieldwork for the polling was being carried out, the establishment media launched its most well-organised attack on Nigel Farage since he became Reform leader yet, over his remarks relating to the Ukraine war. It might take another week to see whether his comments—that while the conflict is “of course” Vladimir Putin’s fault, it was also “provoked” by NATO and EU expansion—have turned voters off Reform. The large crowds Farage is still attracting with short notice at rallies across the country suggest that they have not made that much of a difference.
Keeping in mind the usual caveats about polling, it is also worth noting that other recent polling suggests fears over Labour getting its hands on a ‘supermajority’ (of 250 seats, according to the MRP figures) at the election could prompt a decent number of voters to back the Tories, albeit reluctantly.
38% of 2019 Conservative supporters said exactly this in a poll for the Daily Mail—that they will vote Tory “to ensure the Conservative Party survives and there is a proper opposition.”
More localised polls showing seats potentially going to Labour due to Reform taking votes from the Conservatives (such as this one in Stoke-on-Trent North) are likely to nudge a decent proportion of voters back to the Tories, whom they dislike less than Labour.
As it stands, the Conservatives are set to suffer their worst election result since 1900, featuring the loss of 22 cabinet ministers.
