Former Prime Minister Robert Fico’s opposition party, left-wing nationalist-sovereigntist Smer, has won the parliamentary elections held on Saturday, September 30th. According to the results, published early morning on Sunday, Smer won 22.9% of the votes, a 5% point gain compared to the elections three-and-a-half years ago. The victory seems even greater if we take into account that Smer split into two parties following the last election, with the new party, Hlas, receiving 14.7%.
Other parties that have managed to enter parliament are the liberal opposition party Progressive Slovakia (18%), governing centre-right OLANO (8.9%), the Christian Democratic Movement, which failed to make it into parliament last time around (6.8%), liberal-conservative Freedom and Solidarity (6.3%), and the nationalist Slovak National Party (5.6%).
Surprisingly, right-wing, eurosceptic, anti-NATO party Republika, which was polling at 8-9% in the last few months, only received 4.75%, below the 5% threshold needed to gain seats. Former Prime Minister Eduard Heger (2021-23) and his party Democracy also failed to enter parliament (2.9%) as did the former governing party, conservative Sme Rodina (2.2%).
As we pointed out in our pre-election analysis, the results are proof of people’s lack of trust in the government and its handling of the COVID pandemic and the cost-of-living crisis brought about partly by the war in Ukraine. The elections are also a sign of sovereigntist parties making a comeback, as opinion polls suggest that Slovaks are becoming fatigued with the ongoing military aid sent to Ukraine and a deepening migration crisis.
Robert Fico—prime minister between 2006-10 and 2012-18—will probably have the best chance to build a coalition and bring his country more in line with the politics of Hungary and Poland. Fico has been extremely vocal in criticising both the EU and the United States for meddling in the domestic affairs of EU member states. His natural coalition ally would be Hlas, and he can also turn to the Slovak National Party with which he governed previously. However, pro-Ukraine and pro-LGBT-rights Progressive Slovakia may also sway Hlas to join them in a coalition.
