European intelligence agencies are claiming that Russia is actively preparing various acts of sabotage, either directly or through proxies, of Europe’s infrastructure, including through detonation, arson, or other forms of damage.
If accurate, this would mean Russia would be expanding the scope (as well as type) of its foreign operations in Europe.
According to gathered intel, Moscow would be unconcerned about potential civilian casualties, the Financial Times reports. Thus far, the Kremlin has not released a statement to address the allegation.
All three agencies that spoke to the publication said that while the Kremlin and its agents had “a long history” of such operations, “evidence is mounting of a more aggressive and concerted effort.”
“We assess the risk of state-controlled acts of sabotage to be significantly increased,” said Thomas Haldenwang, head of German domestic intelligence.
Russia now seems comfortable carrying out operations on European soil “[with] a high potential for damage,” he told a security conference last month.
The official spoke mere days after the arrest of two German-Russian nationals in Bayreuth, Bavaria, for allegedly plotting to attack military and logistics sites in Germany.
In the UK, two men were charged in late April with having started a fire at a warehouse containing aid shipments for Ukraine.
Following a series of recent train derailments in Sweden and attacks in Estonia, targeting its railway signaling systems, as well as cars of journalists and even the country’s interior minister, earlier this month Norway said it had discovered a network of Russian agents who were planning to conduct sabotage operations there.
Earlier this year, France’s ministry of defense warned of possible sabotage attacks by Russia on military sites.
Keir Giles, senior consulting fellow at the think tank Chatham House told the FT that “the obvious conclusion is that there has been a real stepping up of Russian activity,” and that “one cannot tell if that’s a reflection of the fact that the Russians are throwing more resources at it; whether they are being more sloppy and getting caught; or whether western counter-intelligence has simply become better at detecting and stopping it.”
As disclosed by one senior European government official, NATO security services are sharing information on “clear and convincing Russian mischief,” as he said the time had come to “raise awareness and focus” about the physical threat Russia poses.
According to the publication, in the weeks following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, more than 600 Russian intelligence officers operating in Europe under diplomatic cover were removed, which came as a heavy blow to the Kremlin’s ability to gather intelligence across Europe.
That vacuum is now being filled by the use of proxies, which often include members of the Russian diaspora as well as organized crime groups with which the Kremlin has long-standing ties.
“These pinprick attacks we’ve seen so far are of course to create disruption,” Giles said, while noting they could also serve as disinformation. “And then there is what Russia learns from these attacks if they want to immobilize Europe for real. … They’re practice runs,” he concluded.
