Support for Scottish independence dropped 7% in the first three months of 2023 following the resignation of Scottish National Party (SNP) leader Nicola Sturgeon. An opinion poll released this week showed support for Scottish independence at 42%, compared to 49% in November 2022.
The new poll was conducted in early March, shortly after Sturgeon’s departure. Public support for the SNP experienced a bigger drop, declining 2% (down to 39%). In comparison, the British Tory party, the primary political beneficiary, experienced a 6% increase in electoral support.
The SNP is under internal pressure to find a replacement for Sturgeon following her surprise resignation in February. Sturgeon was heavily criticised for her handling of the Isla Bryson case, in which a convicted rapist manipulated Scotland’s transgender self-identification laws for prisoners, which were policies championed by the SNP.
Humza Yousaf emerged as the probable candidate to replace Sturgeon despite ties to the Muslim Brotherhood, though social conservative Kate Forbes remains a public favourite.
The poll also reports a 14% decline in Sturgeon’s favorability following her resignation, rising only to 20% among SNP voters.
A 2014 referendum saw 44.7% of Scottish voters opt to leave the UK in a campaign spearheaded by the SNP. There have been calls for a new referendum in the wake of Britain’s departure from the EU, with the SNP expected to use the next UK general election as a test run for a future independence vote.
The SNP’s estimated 100,000 members will begin voting on March 13th, with a new leader expected to be named by March 27th.
