The likelihood of a future Trump presidency clamping down on illegal migration from South America has raised concerns that migrants could take advantage of visa loopholes to flood into Europe through Spain, one leading migration think tank warns.
The International Centre for Migration Policy Development (ICMPD) issued the warning as part of its annual migration outlook report. Greater conflict between states and the waning of the American-led unipolar order will contribute to 2024 likely being a record year for illegal immigration into Europe, the report says.
While the traditional migration routes to Europe from Africa and the Middle East will remain important in the year ahead, the report also broaches the possibility of a spike in the number of Colombian and Venezuelan migrants heading to Europe, should security at America’s southern border tighten.
In 2023, the number of South American asylum seekers arriving into Europe reached just over 150,000, driven primarily by economic factors and political turmoil. Many EU governments, particularly Spain, also seek to tap into the region’s still relatively youthful labour reserves.
Latin American migrants first started turning to Europe in the face of greater border checks by the Trump administration after 2016 with Spain being the destination of choice due to a common language. Madrid’s socialist government encouraged this trend by last year signing a bilateral agreement with the Biden administration to take in excess asylum seekers.
Migration was also a key part of the recent CELAC (Community of Latin American and Caribbean States) summit between EU and South American governments. Many Latin American countries pushed for visa liberalisation in exchange for deals on mineral resources and remaining aligned with the West against Russia and a rising China.
According to ICMPD, the coming years will see EU governments opt more and more for ‘asylum offshoring’ in countries such as Tunisia. The strategic issuing of visas is seen as a way to mitigate asylum applications.
The ICMPD report notes a spike in migration from West Africa to Europe in the past year on the back of rampant political instability in the region just south of the Sahara. The percentage of sub-Saharans among all African arrivals in Europe using the Mediterranean route rose to 40% last year—up from 5% in 2022—as refugee numbers reached levels not seen since 2016. The U.S. has also seen a spike in the number of Africans presenting at its southern border as migrants fly from Africa to Nicaragua before travelling across Mexico.
Former Austrian foreign minister Michael Spindelegger, who serves as director of the EU-funded ICMPD, described the risk of a “closed-shop effect” in the coming year as migrants potentially attempt to rush Europe’s borders before populist governments attempt to shut down routes.
Migration is set to be one of the top issues for voters ahead of this year’s European elections as liberal and leftist governments face a rising electoral insurgence against years of lacking border management.
