Hello, and welcome to The European Conservative’s UK election live coverage.
Labour has officially won the election and is likely to boast a parliamentary majority of 170 seats.
Not, despite what its leader (and next prime minister) Sir Keir Starmer says, because the public is supportive of what it has to offer. Indeed, Starmer’s own seat was won on a low turnout and with a significantly lower vote share than at the last election. And the party has lost a good number of its frontbenchers.
Rather, because of how unpopular the Conservatives have made themselves, and thanks to the impressive rise of Reform which, despite winning just four seats, has picked up millions of votes across the country. Also, due to the near-total collapse of the SNP in Scotland.
The Tories have done terribly, and their leader (for now) Rishi Sunak has apologised for this. Many of their leading figures are gone, and some of the more decent, genuinely conservative Tories have lost their seats too.
But it is still the Conservatives—rather than the Liberal Democrats—who will form the next Opposition. And they have held onto enough seats to be able to put forward a ‘serious’ challenge to Labour at the next election.
3:46 p.m. (BST)—Reform outlines its plan to “change politics forever”
Reform leader and MP Nigel Farage is delivering a press conference in Westminster today, flanked by the party’s three other parliamentary representatives—Richard Tice, Lee Anderson, and Rupert Lowe.
After jostling with a few rowdy hecklers, Farage said that the results of yesterday’s general election show “there is no enthusiasm for Starmer’s Labour whatsoever” and that the first-past-the-post electoral system is “not fit for purpose”—an issue on which “we will campaign with anyone and everyone to [bring about] change.”
He added that the party’s aim is now to “democratise” and “professionalise”—that is, to make sure any “bad apples” within the ranks are booted out—so that it can get itself into the position where it is “the ‘Opposition’ around the country,” if not in Parliament itself.
“It really is my aim and ambition,” Farage concluded, “to create a mass movement across this country that will change politics for good—that will change politics forever.”
Watch the full conference here:
Oh, and by the way—not only does Reform say it is now gaining a “member a minute” the day after the election, it is also still holding out hope to win a fifth MP in the South Basildon and East Thurrock constituency.
1:51 p.m. (BST)—Keir Starmer gives his first (instantly revealing) speech as prime minister
Arriving at Downing Street for his first speech as prime minister, Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer was greeted by a grinning, flag-waving crowd—made up of who, exactly, was unclear, given that the street has been closed to the public for decades, and that many Labour types cannot stand the union jack.
He then started his speech as he likely means to go on with his premiership—with a focus on identity politics—by praising outgoing PM Rishi Sunak for “his achievement as the first British Asian prime minister of our country.”
Just after this, Starmer repeated the lie that “our country has voted decisively for change,” when, in fact, all it has really done is vote against the Conservatives.
Much of Starmer’s speech was a repetition of the victory talk he gave last night, with much spiel about “the responsibility of your trust”; how “your government should treat every single person in this country with respect”; and the suggestion “we’ve changed the Labour Party.”
He did add a new line, that “you have a government un-burdened by doctrine,” which is questionable.
And the PM ended with the particularly empty platitude that “I invite you all to join this government to serve in the mission of national renewal.”
“Our work,” he said “is urgent, and we begin it today.”
Here’s Farage’s response to the speech:
12:40 p.m. (BST)—Social Democratic Party enjoys a tenfold increase in its vote
SDP leader William Clouston has shared a graphic illustrating the growth of his party—both in terms of the number of seats it has been able to field and the number of votes secured across the country—from the 2015 general election to yesterday’s national poll.
12:37 p.m. (BST)—Reform has more than one million votes for each MP returned
In a stark illustration of the oddities of Britain’s electoral system, statistics from the Electoral Reform Society have shown that Reform has more than one million votes per every MP it returned. That’s compared to just 23,568 for Labour and 56,317 for the Conservatives.
08:14 a.m. (BST)—Conservatives totally wiped out in Wales
There are no longer any Conservative MPs in the whole of Wales.
That sends a fairly loud message.
06:58 a.m. (BST)—Voters boot Liz Truss out of the Commons
Liz Truss, the UK’s shortest-serving prime minister, has lost her West Norfolk seat, with a Reform UK surge narrowly holding her back from re-election.
Truss, having previously enjoyed a massive majority of more than 26,000, secured 11,217 votes to the Labour candidate’s 11,847. Reform picked up 9,958 votes.
06:22 a.m. (BST)—Labour’s vote share has barely changed since 2019
Sir John Curtice (yes, him again) notes that “Labour’s own vote is expected to be up by just under two points across the country [compared to the 2019 election]. This is entirely as a result of a 19 point increase in support in Scotland.”
What more proof could you need that Labour’s massive victory has nothing to do with the idea that the party has “changed,” or that the public is widely supportive of its agenda.
05:53 a.m. (BST)—Leading pollster says Reform has “cost Sunak dear”
Professor Sir John Curtice writes for the BBC that of the 173 seats the Tories have lost so far, the Reform vote was greater than the margin of the Conservatives’ defeat in 124:
Of course, not everybody who voted Reform would have otherwise voted Conservative, but they most certainly voted Conservative in 2019.
These statistics underline the extent to which the heavy loss of Conservative votes to Reform has cost Sunak’s party dear.
05:48 a.m. (BST)—‘New Conservatives’ backbencher keeps his seat
Danny Kruger, who set up the ‘rightish’ New Conservatives group alongside Miriam Cates, has held onto his East Wiltshire seat.
05:44 a.m. (BST)—100 seats left to be declared…
… and here’s what the next Parliament is looking like at the moment.
The latest BBC forecast puts Labour at 410 seats (out of 650), the Conservatives on 144, the Liberal Democrats on 58, the SNP on eight and Reform on four.
05:32 a.m. (BST)—Starmer’s speech as Labour officially wins the election
Labour has crossed the threshold for a parliamentary majority. The size of its majority is still yet to be determined, but is expected to be around 170 seats.
Sir Keir Starmer, who will now become the UK’s 58th prime minister, said in his victory speech:
Change begins now. And it feels good, I have be honest.
Four-and-a-half years of work changing the party. This is what it is for; a changed Labour Party, ready to serve our country, ready to restore Britain to the service of working people.
And across our country, people will be waking up to the news, relieved that a weight has been lifted—a burden finally removed from the shoulders of this great nation. And now, we can look forward again. Walk into the morning, the sunlight of hope—hail at first, but getting stronger through the day—shining once again on a country with the opportunity after 14 years to get its future back. …
But a mandate like this comes with a great responsibility. Our task is nothing less than renewing the ideas that hold this country together. National renewal. Whoever you are, wherever you started in life—If you work hard, if you play by the rules, this country should give you a fair chance to get on. It should always respect your contribution, and we have to restore that.
And alongside that, we have to return politics to public service—show that politics can be a force for good. Make no mistake, that is the great test of politics in this era. The fight for trust is the battle that defines our age. It is why we’ve campaigned so hard on demonstrating we are fit for public service.
He also promised to put “country first” and “party second.”
That is the responsibility of this mandate.
Starmer then went on to suggest that Labour won the election—and had “earnt the mandate”—because the electorate saw in it something that it liked, rather than because it had come to loathe the Conservatives.
Election victories don’t fall from the sky. They’re hard won and hard fought for. And this one could only be won by a changed Labour Party. We have the chance to repair our public services because we changed the party. We have the chance to make work pay because we changed the party. We have the chance to deliver for working people, young people, vulnerable people, the poorest in our society because we changed the party. …
The British people had to look us in the eye and see that we can serve their interest. …
I don’t promise you it will be easy. Changing a country is not like flicking a switch. It’s hard work, patient work, determind work, and we will have to get moving immediately.
05:18 a.m. (BST)—Jacob Rees-Mogg loses his seat
Senior Conservative Jacob Rees-Mogg has lost his North East Somerset seat to Labour. Reform, again, came third.
04:49 a.m. (BST)—Sunak wins his seat but concedes Tory defeat
The prime minister has comfortably held on to his Richmond seat, despite some speculation during the campaign that he could lose it to Labour.
He described this as a “difficult night” for the Conservatives and accepted that “the Labour Party has won this general election.”
The British people have delivered a sobering verdict tonight. There is much to learn and reflect on, and I take responsibility for the loss.
To the many good, hardworking Conservative candidates who lost tonight … I am sorry.
Chancellor Jeremy Hunt has also held onto his seat in Surrey. So too has Tory chairman Richard Holden, with a majority of just 20.
04:45 a.m. (BST)—Miriam Cates loses her seat
Many genuine conservatives will be dispirited to learn that Miriam Cates, of the ‘rightist’ New Conservatives group of Tory backbenchers, has also lost her seat to Labour.
04:37 a.m. (BST)—Some more senior Tories gone
Johnny Mercer, who was the Conservative minister for veterans’ affairs, has lost his Plymouth Moor View seat to Labour. Reform came in third place, taking an essential 9,670 votes from Mercer.
Former Education Secretary Gillian Keegan has also lost her Chichester seat, this time to the Liberal Democrats. Reform, again, came in third place.
Then there’s former deputy prime minister Therese Coffey, whose 20,000+ majority was won over by Labour.
Former home secretary Suella Braverman has, however, held her Fareham seat.
04:22 a.m. (BST)—Farage: “This is just the first step”
After becoming MP for Clacton, Nigel Farage outlined the immediate and more long-term plans for Reform:
My plan is to build a mass national movement over the course of the next few years. And hopefully, it will be big enough to challenge the general election properly in 2029.
What is interesting is there’s no enthusiasm for Labour—there’s no enthusiasm for Starmer whatsoever. In fact, about half of the vote is simply an anti-Conservative vote.
This Labour government will be in trouble very, very quickly and we will now be targeting Labour votes. We’re coming for Labour, be in no doubt about that.
Believe me folks, this is just the first step of something that is going to stun all of you.
04:17 a.m. (BST)—Possible future Tory leadership contender booted out of the Commons
Penny Mordaunt is the latest high-ranking Tory to have lost her seat to Labour. This will have significant implications for the future of the Conservative Party.
04:10 a.m. (BST)—Labour loses another frontbencher
This time, its shadow culture secretary Thangam Debbonaire, who has lost her Bristol West seat to the Green Party.
04:04 a.m. (BST)—Richard Tice becomes Reform’s fourth MP
Reform chairman Richard Tice—who, before Farage’s return to frontline politics, spent a good while as the party’s leader—has won in Boston and Skegness.
The results really are now coming in thick and fast.
04:01 a.m. (BST)—Tories gain a seat
Yes, you read that right.
In all of the excitement of the past 20 minutes, we we’re momentarily unable to update you on the fact the Conservatives have actually won Leicester East from Labour.
This is being put down to the Left being so split in the seat.
Iain Duncan Smith has also held onto his Chingford and Woodford Green for the Conservatives thanks to the Left splitting its vote.
03:55 a.m. (BST)—Labour loses to independent candidate in Leicester South
The BBC describes this as “the most shocking result of the night so far.”
Labour shadow pensions secretary Jonathan Ashworth has lost to a pro-Gaza independent, and lost big.
Ashworth shed 35% of his vote share compared to the last election. One-third of the Leicester South population is Muslim, prompting even the BBC to report that the result “does suggest that in parts of the country politics is re-orientating around religious and cultural divides.”
03:53 a.m. (BST)—Reform picks up its third MP
Rupert Lowe has won for Reform UK in Great Yarmouth, where the Tories have suffered a staggering 40+ point vote share drop.
03:40 a.m. (BST)—Farage is an MP
Reform leader Nigel Farage has become the parliamentary representative of Clacton after acquiring 21,225 votes to the Conservatives’ 12,820 with a 45% swing.
Politics professor Matthew Goodwin, who voted Reform in the election, celebrated that
Nigel Farage now goes down in the history books as a former Member of the European Parliament, the only leader to win two national elections with two different parties, a lead campaigner for Brexit, and now Member of Parliament. What’s next?
Farage is Reform’s second MP of the night.
Speaking after election, he said the fact Reform has been so successful tonight shows “something very fundamental is happening.”
It’s not just disappointment with the Conservative Party—there is a massive gap in the centre Right of British politics and my job is to fill it. And that’s exactly what I’m going to do.
03:32 a.m. (BST)—Corbyn batters Labour in Islington North
Labour really didn’t its former leader to win this seat. But he has done—massively so.
3:19 a.m. (BST)—Farage congratulates Lee Anderson
All eyes will now be on his prospective Clacton seat, which he is expected to win.
3:17 a.m. (BST)—Another “emblematic” moment
Defence secretary Grant Shapps, who has held many other senior cabinet positions in recent years, has lost his seat to Labour.
He is the first sitting cabinet minister to lose his seat to Sir Keir Starmer’s party, and Reform has played a significant role in this.
3:08 a.m. (BST)—Starmer wins his seat on a low turnout and a significantly lower vote share
That’s hardly a ringing endorsement.
Just 54% of voters in the Holborn and St. Pancras constituency turned out to vote, and Starmer’s vote share dropped by an incredible 17% compared to the last election.
2:56 a.m. (BST)—Reform doing major harm to the Tories
Polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice highlights in the BBC that Reform came second in 18 of the first 33 seats declared, and that “in 10 of the first 15 seats the Tories lost, the seat would have been saved if those who voted Reform would have voted Conservative instead.”
Reform has, however, just lost Hartlepool, which the exit poll predicted it would win. So they could do worse than was projected at 10:00 p.m. (how long ago that seems!).
2:43 a.m. (BST)—Galloway loses in Rochdale
George Galloway has lost his Rochdale seat, just four months after he was elected to represent it (largely in protest over Labour’s stance on Gaza).
His Workers Party of Britain is not expected to win any other seats in the election.
Galloway has shared a post online claiming that a “Workers Party official has said the election ‘has been rigged against George Galloway from the start.’”
2:35 a.m. (BST)—Labour’s lead is “as wide as the ocean but as shallow as a village pond”
Spectator chairman Andrew Neil echoes our earlier reporting on Labour’s lack of popular support in this interesting clip:
2:27 a.m. (BST)—Reform UK wins its first seat of the night
Lee Anderson, the former Tory deputy chairman who defected to Reform in March, has held his Ashfield seat, making him the first Reform UK MP of the night.
He secured 17,062 votes to the Conservatives’ 3,271. In fact, the Tories came fourth, behind Labour and an independent candidate.
Reports also say that Reform leader Nigel Farage is likely to win his Clacton seat. More on that later.
2:12 a.m. (BST)—Very tight in the Tory chairman’s seat
A full recount is taking place in Conservative Party chairman Richard Holden’s constituency of Basildon and Billericay—one we said to look out for earlier.
Reform’s candidate, Stephen Conlay, says he is “quietly confident.”
And according to the Labour leader of the local council, there’s only about 20 votes in it.
We’ll be bringing you an update as soon as it’s in.
2:03 a.m. (BST)—First Tory victory won by Brexiteer on Right of the party
The Conservatives have held their first seat of night.
Rayleigh and Wickford has again been won by Mark Francois, a Brexiteer on the Right of the party. (So much for the party needing to stick to the ‘centre’!)
And again, Reform came in second place with more than a quarter of the vote share.
Moments after the seat was declared, the Tories lost both Darlington—one of the famous ‘Red Wall’ seats which switched to the Tories for the first time at the last general election in the hope of ‘getting Brexit done’—and Nuneaton to Labour.
1:42 a.m. (BST)—Conservatives lose their second seat of the night…
… this time, to the Liberal Democrats.
The Tories have shed 20.7 percentage points in the Harrogate and Knaresborough constituency and the Lib Dems have gained 11.5.
Reform came in third place.
1:37 a.m. (BST)—Scottish nationalist blames SNP collapse on the weather
The exit poll predicts that the Scottish National Party will see its number of MPs fall from 48 to just 10.
Mhairi Black, who served as the party’s deputy leader in the House of Commons and is standing down at this election, appears to have told Channel 4 that this is because of the requirement to show voter ID at polling stations, issues with postal voting and … the weather.
Nice thought, but it appears there are far deeper causes than these.
1:30 a.m. (BST)—Labour “deeply worried” about possible swings to Reform
Labour is putting on a brave face and claiming officially that “Reform will not win many of the seats the exit poll suggests.” But behind the scenes, they are “deeply worried” about the possibility of actually losing seats to Nigel Farage’s party.
That is according to journalist Lewis Goodall. He is hearing that some of Starmer’s officials are concerned “about not just second place finishes [for Reform] but unexpected Labour losses.”
Indeed, rumours are swirling around that Labour grandee and shadow home secretary Yvette Cooper could lose her seat to Reform.
The party’s officials are also increasingly nervous of largely-Muslim protest votes over its Gaza stance.
12:55 a.m. (BST)—Labour to gain massive majority off just “36%” of the vote
Initial GBN/Electoral Calculus estimates suggest that Labour’s parliamentary majority of 170 will be achieved with just 36% of the vote, highlighting that the party hasn’t swung to power due to popular backing.
Pundits say that this means the party may have to tread more lightly than it might like, or that it will very soon become deeply unpopular with the already-sceptical electorate.
12:46 a.m. (BST)—Sunak “will announce his resignation as Conservative leader on Friday morning”
We’ve not even seen 10 seats declared yet, but it seems that Rishi Sunak has already made up his mind—he’s going.
Well-connected political journalist Tim Shipman says it is his understanding that the prime minister will announce his resignation as Tory leader on Friday morning, “but will stay on until another leader is selected. In practice this means holding the fort in parliament for three weeks before the recess.”
12:41 a.m. (BST)—Farage: “The revolt against the establishment is underway”
In his first comments since the exit poll, Nigel Farage has described Reform’s vote share in the first two seats called less than an hour ago—both of them above earlier predictions—as “almost unbelievable.”
He added that “it’s almost comical” to watch the Reform-exclusionary television coverage of the election. “Mainstream media,” Farage said, “are in denial—just as much as our political parties.”
12:29 a.m. (BST)—Labour gains first seat from the Conservatives
Former justice secretary Sir Robert Buckland—who, as we just reported, says the Conservatives shouldn’t ally with Reform—is the first Tory to lose his seat (to Labour) tonight.
Buckland has held the Swindon South seat since 2010.
GB News presenter Camilla Tominey described the constituency as “one of those seats that would be indicative of a Tory collapse and indeed a Labour surge.”
Reform came in third place.
12:24 a.m. (BST)—Senior Tories still aren’t getting it
It appears as though many senior Tories are sticking to their line that voters want the party to remain ‘centrist,’ despite the fact this flies in the face of mass voter frustration with their anti-conservative record—and, significantly, in spite of Reform’s obvious success at this election.
GB News journalist Steven Edginton just wrote on Twitter that “Tory wets (i.e. 90% of MPs) are already saying this result shows they shouldn’t go ‘far right,’” and pointed to former justice secretary Robert Buckland’s claim on Sky News that the Conservative defeat shows his party shouldn’t ally with Reform.
One-time Tory leadership contender Andrea Leadsom has also told the BBC in the most flaccid possible terms that “perhaps we have not been Conservative enough” (emphasis added). Perhaps that’s as far as many of her ilk are willing to budge.
11:59 p.m. (BST)—BBC already claiming that “Reform UK has cut through”
After Reform came second in the first election result of the night just moments ago, and then did the same in the second result, BBC political editor Chris Mason said the figures were “stand out” for Reform and noted that the party beat the Conservatives into second place “easily.”
Nigel Farage’s party has, he added, “cut through, the evidence suggests so far—and is a big part of the story tonight.”
11:45 p.m. (BST)—And we’re off
The first two official results are in.
Labour’s shadow education secretary Bridget Phillipson has held on to Sunderland South, as has Labour’s Ian Lavery in Blyth and Ashington.
More interestingly, Reform came second (and fairly decently so) in both seats, pushing the Conservatives into third, and prompting quips on X/Twitter that the Tories—not Reform—split the right-wing vote.
It looks like this really will be an interesting night.
11:25 p.m. (BST)—Reform celebrates “politically seismic” prediction, but supporters urge caution
If Reform wins the 13 seats the exit poll predicts that it will, it will have established a “huge bridgehead” in Parliament which it can later use to launch a much wider political attack at the 2029 general election.
That is according to the party’s deputy leader, Ben Habib, who described the forecast as “politically seismic. This is the beginning of the fight back for the nation state of the United Kingdom.”
Journalist Isabel Oakeshott, who is Reform chairman Richard Tice’s partner, has however urged caution. She responded to the exit poll by noting that “because of the way the modelling works and the fact that it’s a new party, there are HUGE variables with this one.” Reform, Oakeshott said, could get “far fewer” seats—or, indeed, more.
10:54 p.m. (BST)—Reform aside, exit poll is “worst case scenario” for conservatives
Here’s Bow Group chairman Ben Harris-Quinney’s initial reaction to the exit poll—predicting a major Labour victory and not-as-bad-as-expected losses for the Tories—exclusively for The European Conservative:
I predicted long before this election that we were headed for the worst case scenario: a Labour landslide but with enough of a Tory party remaining that within a few years they would be back to leading the polls due to Labour ineptitude. They could then return to business as usual without learning any lessons.
The exit poll suggests this is what will happen, but with the significant caveat of Reform.
The polls predict Reform to return 13 seats. I suspect it will be more than that. I also suspect they will also have by far the highest number of votes for each seat won. This means the difference in the number of votes they achieved in this election versus the number they would need to win an election could be very small in national terms. It underlines how undemocratic and in need of reform the first-past-the-post system is, but also the extreme cliff-edge nature of change that can occur.
Farage will find it hard to manage his new team of MPs with every establishment knife out against them, but he is in a stronger position than ever to change the game for good.
10:42 p.m. (BST)—If you can bear to look…
Here’s a handy visual of the general election exit poll:
10:00 p.m. (BST)—What would be “good” and what would be “disastrous”for Reform?
Pollster Matthew Goodwin, who has voted Reform, believes it would be “good” if Nigel Farage’s party secured “one or two seats” at the election, with five-to-seven million votes spread across the country.
He said that this—as well as Reform coming second in more than 100 Tory and Labour seats—would serve as a “solid foundation” for the next general election, which will likely take place in 2029.
Goodwin added that a “disastrous outcome” would be Reform winning zero seats.
9:36 p.m. (BST)—Less than half an hour until exit poll
The general election ‘exit poll’ should be released just after 10:00 p.m. (BST).
This is a big moment on election night and should fairly accurately predict the formation of the next parliament.
As explained below, the exit poll is based on interviews with a sample of voters in 133 “carefully selected” seats. For those interested in the nitty-gritty of British electoral politics, The New York Times has a good write up here on what makes the exit poll so trusted.
We will be bringing you the results here as they are unveiled.
9:15 (BST)—Douglas Murray: “The Tories have only themselves to blame”
Echoing former home secretary Suella Braverman’s recent condemnation of Tories who blame Reform for their woes, Douglas Murray has argued today that “if the British Right is to cohere … [it will] have to have some people who are actually right-wing—in economics, social policy, immigration policy and much more.”
Writing in The Spectator, Murray denounced calls for the Conservative Party to kowtow to ‘centrists,’ and rejected the view that the party is suffering because it has moved too far to the Right.
Reform have undoubtedly helped the Conservative Party to a greater defeat than they might otherwise have gone down to. But after 14 years, many people on the Right have had enough of the Conservatives insisting they and they alone can be trusted. Cameron, May, Johnson, Truss and Sunak one after the other destroyed the Conservative Party’s ability to be seen as fiscally capable or anything but the party of open borders. The ‘You have to vote for us’ line no longer holds. That is the consequence of the Conservative Party’s failure. No one else’s.
Worth reading in full.
8:56 p.m. (BST)—Conservatives could be entering “elimination territory”
Phillip Blond, a leading figure in the “Red Tory” (economically left-leaning and culturally traditional) political movement, has written that because the Tories have spent the past 14 years being so “unconservative,” the party might have entered “elimination territory.”
He added in a post on Twitter that if this is the case, and if a sizable number of disgruntled Tories have switched to Nigel Farage’s Reform, this could be “the most important night we’ve had in post-war British politics—a final realignment of the right and the utter eclipse of the Conservative Party.”
7:32 p.m. (BST)—Voter turnout looking stronger than expected
It has been suggested that poll after poll forecasting a massive Labour majority in Parliament after the election could have left many thinking “what’s the point?”—thus stunting voter turnout.
But Peter Stanyon, chief executive of the Association of Electoral Administrators, is quoted in The Times claiming that polling stations are said to have been “busy” and that “there’s certainly not been a massive drop-off or far more people voting. It’s hard to know for sure but we seem to be in about the same sort of region we were last time.”
Presuming that this is correct, journalist Patrick O’Flynn suggested that “this could mean any of three things: a) the shy Tories have been hooked by the super-majority warning and are coming out, b) enthusiasm for Labour to get the Tories out, [or] c) a Brexit-style working class surge for Reform.” Reform deputy leader Ben Habib agreed that the news “bodes well” for his party.
We don’t have to wait long to find out.
6:35 p.m. (BST)—Departing Gove “emblematic” of what’s gone wrong
Liberal ‘Conservative’ Michael Gove’s long and significant stint in frontline politics is coming to an end.
Photographers earlier today spotted a removal van outside his government-owned residence in London, despite previous reports that he would vacate the £25 million (€29.5 million) mansion tomorrow, on July 5th.
Gove’s planned departure from politics (he announced he was standing down as MP in May) is fairly symbolic, given that he has held senior roles in most of the Tory governments since 2010—including as ‘Levelling Up’ secretary, environment secretary and, perhaps most famously, education secretary.
Bow Group think tank chairman Ben Harris-Quinney told The European Conservative that “many will see Michael Gove packing his bags as one of the longest serving ministers as emblematic.”
Gove is emblematic in the sense that he is a well known fan of Tony Blair. He came into office when people thought they had just voted for an end to Blair, not realising it was just another changing of the guard.
Only when this is recognised can real change occur.
5:34 p.m. (BST)—Parties make their final pitches before polls close
Most of those who are voting today will have already done so. But the parties are still pumping out content on social media for the stragglers who they are hoping have yet to make up their minds.
Reform, said its leader Nigel Farage, “will ban the poisonous trans ideology in our schools” and will “raise the minimum income tax threshold to £20,000, lifting six million people out of tax”—two policies that separate it from both the Conservatives and Labour. Some polling is now suggesting that the party could win as many as 15 seats. We’ll have to wait at least 12 hours to see if this is true.
The Tories have spent their day hammering home the dangers of a Labour “supermajority” in Parliament, with leader Rishi Sunak suggesting that the only way to stop this is to “vote Conservative.” A video interview by TRIGGERnometry with conservative journalist Peter Hitchens (no usual bedfellow of the Tories), in which he urges patriots to vote against Labour, has also now been viewed more than 200,000 times on Twitter alone.
Labour, made confident(ish) by the polls, has not had to do quite as much work today, although leader Sir Keir Starmer has again trotted out the line that he has “changed the Labour Party” since the days of Jeremy Corbyn, and expressed his desire to “change the country,” too.
The economically left, culturally traditional Social Democratic Party republished its 2024 election broadcast today, which can also be watched here.
4:38 p.m. (BST)—Seats to watch
Political blog Guido Fawkes has put together a list of Conservative cabinet ministers’ seats that are on a “knife-edge” and could very possibly flip either to Labour or the Liberal Democrats. Definitely worth a read, alongside our own rundown of tonight’s key election timings.
3:01 p.m. (BST)—Key election timings
We’ll be posting updates on the election through the day right here. But the main action will start at 10:00 p.m., after polling stations—which have been open since 7:00 a.m.—close. Here is a rundown of the (likely) key timings (BST), provided for my benefit as much as for yours!
- 10:00 p.m.: The BBC will unveil its famous mass ‘exit poll’ of voters leaving polling stations (more than 17,000 of them from 133 “carefully selected” seats, according to The Times), predicting the number of seats for each party in the next parliament.
- 11:00 p.m.-midnight: Sunderland South is hoping to be the first seat to declare at around this time.
- Midnight-1:00 a.m.: This is when the first upsets could be inflicted on the Conservatives (or not, as it may turn out), with the constituencies of Basildon and Billericay—where Tory chairman Richard Holden is hoping to defend a majority of 20,000—and Swindon South—which the Tories currently hold with a less impressive majority of 6,600—set to declare in this hour. Other seats are also expected to shift from the Conservatives to Labour at this time.
- 1:00 a.m.-2:00 a.m.: Seats in Scotland should begin to declare, offering an early indication of Labour’s performance against the Scottish National Party north of the border.
- 2:00 a.m.-3:00 a.m.: Around 60 seats should declare in this hour, including in Rochdale, where Workers Party of Britain leader George Galloway is hoping to hold onto the seat he won from Labour just four months ago.
- 3:00 a.m.-4:00 a.m.: The Times describes this as “decapitation hour when a series of senior Tories [like Penny Mordaunt, Gillian Keegan and Alex Chalk] find out if they’ve won or lost their seats.” The papers also say that Reform could win its first seat of the night (in Great Yarmouth) at around this time. Jeremy Corbyn’s Islington North constituency should declare, too.
- 4:00 a.m.-5:00 a.m.: This hour will be interesting. We’ll find out whether Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has been able to hold onto his seat, and whether Nigel Farage has done enough to make it into Parliament, too. Tory-to-Reform defector Lee Anderson’s Ashfield seat should also declare.
- 5:00 a.m.-6:00 a.m.: Former prime minister Liz Truss’ South West Norfolk seat will declare.
- 6:00 a.m.-7:00 a.m.: The remaining undeclared seats should unveil their results at around this time.
Most Britons will be waking up to the results after this. Sad politicos like me will either just be going to bed, or holding out just a little bit later to watch the possible transition of power.
2:03 p.m. (BST)—Election commentary from The European Conservative
For some longer reads on today’s election, you can read Frank Haviland on whether Britain will “finally shake off the shackles of the two-party system, put the Tory party to bed and submit to the loving embrace of Reform UK” here, and—if you’ll indulge me—my own article on the various choices faced by genuine British conservatives at this election here.
1:19 p.m. (BST)—“Strong end” for Reform in polls, but very few seats likely to be won
For those who still believe the polls, the final YouGov MRP results yesterday forecasted an “historic election victory” for Labour. It said the party could win 431 out of the 650 seats up for grabs (an increase of 229 from the 2019 election) and that the Tories could win 263 fewer seats than last time, leaving them on 102.
Politics professor Matthew Goodwin also last night highlighted that Reform’s average vote share in the final polls was 17.3%, up from 11% at the start of the election campaign and from 15% last week. Goodwin added that “most polls suggest a strong end to the campaign for Farage & Co.,” regardless of the relentless smear campaigns against the insurgent party.
But the YouGov figures still only show Reform picking up three seats, largely due to the wide distribution of the party’s support, which will struggle to cut through under Britain’s large-party-favouring electoral system.
In many areas, the figures are so close that proper results are anyone’s guess until the declarations come out. More on the timings of all this soon.
12:35 p.m. (BST)—What are the other papers saying?
Most of the newspaper endorsements have been predictable. The Guardian, like The Sun, has backed Labour, leading with Sir Keir Starmer’s hailing of a “new age of hope.” So too has the Daily Mirror, which argues that “Britain can be better than this” and prints a large image of the Labour leader mimicking the famous Barack Obama “Hope” poster.
The Times has not endorsed any party (although its sister paper, The Sunday Times, has also backed Labour). Instead, it has suggested rather tentatively that “democracy requires change,” but “there are … warning signs” about what a Labour government would bring.
The paper also repeats the misconception that Labour has “no visionary prospectus for the coming decade,” despite concerns surrounding its plans for a radical constitutional shake-up and Starmer’s own expressed desire to impose “fundamental change which will see a country transformed.”
The Daily Telegraph endorsed the Tories early on in the election campaign and today splashes with the warning that under Labour, “homeowners face [a] council tax raid.” Allister Heath, the editor of its sister Sunday paper, writes that “the UK is about to enter a nightmare much darker than anyone yet realises,” while the daily team’s editorial suggests—after polling highlighted that just 130,000 voters could be the difference between a Labour majority and a hung Parliament—that “only a vote for the Conservatives can avoid this fate.”
The Daily Express equally predictably backs the Conservatives, conceding that “your frustration that not enough has been done to protect traditional Tory values is understandable” but adding that “the price [of helping Labour win more seats] might be very high.”
Only the Daily Mail addresses Reform UK directly on its front page, suggesting that if you “vote Farage,” you “get them…”—Labour—because “staying at home or supporting Reform UK in protest at past Tory failings would help sweep Sir Keir into Number 10.”
Neither Reform nor the Liberal Democrats have received a national newspaper endorsement. But Farage did this morning use the layout of the Mail’s front page to his advantage:
In Scotland, The Daily Record has endorsed Labour after not backing any party an election since 2010, when it also told Scots to vote Labour.
The European Conservative yesterday published this piece by myself on the various choices that genuine British conservatives have at this election.
11:33 a.m. (BST)—The Sun backs Labour
Rupert Murdoch’s Sun newspaper has backed Labour for the first election since 2005. Hoping to uphold its record of backing winners in elections, the self-titled “People’s Paper”—and, indeed, one of the country’s most-circulated papers—leads today with the claim that it’s “time for a new manager.”
The Sun’s editorial says that while Prime Minister Rishi Sunak “has many policies which we support,” his Conservative Party is, after 14 years in office, “exhausted” and needs “a period in Opposition to unite around a common set of principles.”
It dismisses Nigel Farage’s Reform—supported, according to one Sun poll, by the vast majority of its own readership—as “a one-man band which at best can win only a handful of MPs,” and the Liberal Democrats as “a joke.”
“Which means,” the paper concludes, “that it is time for Labour.”
Sun editors appear to swallow the notion that Sir Keir Starmer’s team will “govern as moderates,” despite what those who are interested know about Starmer’s own radical Left ideology and his plans for significant and irreversible constitutional change.
They also say that Starmer has no “clear plan” for controlling legal or illegal migration, and that “under Labour taxes are going up.”
But that’s ok, because “we will hold Labour to account, without fear or favour.”
The Sun believes its endorsements have swung elections in the past, but it is debatable whether they still make a significant difference.
Starmer is, of course, “delighted” to receive The Sun’s backing. But Kelvin MacKenzie, who edited the paper from 1981 to 1994, fumed online that while “it’s okay for Rupert to give the nod to Socialism from his 350,000 acre ranch in Montana, he forgets Sun readers have to live here.”
9:30 a.m. (BST)—Welcome to The European Conservative‘s live blog of the UK elections!
Six weeks after Conservative Prime Minister Rishi Sunak called a snap July 4th general election, polling stations opened across the country today at 7:00 a.m. (BST). Voters in England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland will elect 650 Members of Parliament, from which a new government will be formed.
The polls will close at 10:00 p.m., at around which time the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) will release its famous mass ‘exit poll’ of voters leaving polling stations. We will be reporting on this later.
Around two-thirds of the results are expected to be declared between 3:00 and 5:00 a.m. on Friday morning. The Sunderland South constituency should be first to declare, with the seat holding the record for the fastest declaration time of 10:43 p.m., set in 2001.
Sunak and Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer are likely to speak at around 4 a.m., when their own seats are called. All eyes will also be on Reform UK’s target seats, with the party expected to secure millions of votes but a disproportionately low number of MPs due to their distribution (and thanks to the first-past-the-post electoral system). Its leader, Nigel Farage’s target seat should be declared at around 4 a.m. Attention will also be paid to Liberal Democrat gains, given the possibility that the leftist party’s MPs could outnumber the Tories and become the ‘official opposition.’
Before voting closes, we will be publishing a number of updates here, including on what today’s newspapers are saying about the election. The real fun, however, starts after 10:00 p.m.
If the polls are to be believed, a number of electoral records could be beaten, including the biggest majority for a single party (Labour) since 1832 and the fewest Conservative Party seats since 1906.
All this should make the election an interesting—if dispiriting—watch. Stay tuned.
