The United Kingdom is witnessing a significant drop in fertility rates, outpacing all other Group of Seven (G7) nations. According to an analysis from the left-leaning Centre for Progressive Policy (CPP), the UK has experienced an 18.8% decline in its fertility rate since 2010, worse than any other nation in the G7, an intergovernmental forum consisting of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the UK and the U.S.
This trend raises concerns about the country’s future demographic and economic landscape, as a growing number of pensioners will eventually outnumber working-age individuals.
Italy follows the UK with the second-largest fertility rate decline, while the United States, Canada, France, and Japan have also seen drops, though to lesser extents.
Overall, many developed countries are facing similar challenges. As fertility rates decline, so does the potential for sustainable population replacement, which could lead to severe economic and social repercussions. This has been used as a reason for not just allowing but encouraging mass migration, as recently restated by Spanish PM Pedro Sánchez.
Across the globe, numerous developed countries are grappling with falling birth rates. As we previously reported, Italy recorded fewer than 400,000 births in 2022—the lowest number since the country’s unification in 1861. Italy’s fertility dropped to 1.24, one of the lowest among OECD countries. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has pledged to address this “demographic crisis” with new policies aimed at boosting birth rates, but with limited success thus far.
Germany, too, is seeing a record-low birth rate, with 2022 marking the lowest rate in a decade at 1.46 children per woman. The country’s population increase is today primarily attributed to immigration rather than a natural rise in births, with net migration reaching an all-time high of 1.5 million in 2022. Across Northern Europe, similar trends are evident: Denmark, Norway, and Sweden all experienced significant drops in birth rates in 2022.
France, historically one of Europe’s more fertile countries, is not immune to these trends either. As we reported in May last year, birth rates in France hit an all-time low in the first quarter of 2023, with a 7% drop compared to pre-pandemic levels. Experts from France’s INED attributed the decline to a long-term downward trend, though they noted that France’s fertility rate remains higher than that of many other European nations, at around 1.8 children per woman.
One European country that has turned the trend around is Hungary, where the fertility rate has risen from 1.2 in 2010 to 1.6 in 2021 after the introduction of policies aimed at increasing fertility—as a viable alternative to importing migrants.
The Hungarian government has introduced a suite of policies aimed at encouraging families to have more children. These include the Family Housing Allowance Program (CSOK), which offers substantial financial support for families purchasing homes. Tax benefits are another cornerstone of Hungary’s approach: mothers with four or more children are exempt from income tax for life. New initiatives introduced last month allow married couples to access low-interest loans, with increasing amounts based on the number of children they have.
The Hungarian government has linked these benefits to marriage, resulting in a marked increase in both marriage rates and fertility rates.
Despite some criticisms, Hungary has seen the highest fertility increase in the EU over the past decade. While the true long-term impact remains to be seen, Hungary’s experience may offer valuable lessons for the UK and other nations seeking to address their own fertility challenges through public policy—rather than relying on immigration alone.
